THURSDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews EVERTON v NEWCASTLE and TOTTENHAM v WEST HAM both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EVERTON V NEWCASTLE
7.30pm We finish the midweek Premier League fixture list on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with two fixtures on Thursday night. We have two very interesting markets to go through, and we kick off the evening with Everton hosting Newcastle. Both sides recorded nice wins at the weekend – badly needed wins too. Newcastle are a little off the pace in the Top Four race and obviously Everton were thrown back down to the relegation zone after their ten point deduction. As I said at the weekend, it would still be a surprise if Everton got relegated because their performance level this season has been very impressive. They simply aren’t playing like a side who will get relegated. Their average xG created is 1.54 and their average conceded is only 1.31. That’s basically the high end of mid-table form. For example, they have the same average xG created as Chelsea, and a better one than Manchester United. Newcastle aren’t too far ahead of that figure too; their average xG created is 1.62. Newcastle have been more solid at the back too, but not by a huge amount – their average xG conceded is 1.20 so just 0.11 in the difference. It’s easy to see why we have a very open market here; Everton are very strong at home too and this should be a good game.
Newcastle come into the game as the favourites at 2.4 with Everton 3.3 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. Much was made about the Manchester United players downing tools for their manager again at the weekend, but the truth is Newcastle were all over them. It could have easily been a 2-0 or 3-0 win; Newcastle finished the game with an xG of over 2.0. They simply outplayed United, as many other sides this season have. They will face a tougher test here in my opinion – Everton’s home performances have been very solid this season. You have to leave aside the recent 3-0 loss to Manchester United here, but Everton are averaging close to an xG created of 2.0 per home game, and their average xG conceded is only 1.13 – that’s very strong form. Newcastle are essentially conceding what they create away from home; their average created is 1.41 and their average conceded is 1.38. I know we have an open market, but I would actually have the sides even closer together. Everton have been impressive lately, and I like the Newcastle lay at 2.4 – it’s a nice position to have the draw on our side too.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Newcastle to beat Everton at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EvrNew
TOTTENHAM V WEST HAM
8.15pm We finish the midweek fixtures with a London Derby as Spurs host West Ham. Spurs finally broke their run of three losses with a very dramatic 3-3 draw away to Manchester City at the weekend. Just when you least expect it, Spurs tend to pull a result from nowhere against a top side – in fairness they have been City’s bogey side for a while! When you look at the xG figure, City absolutely hammered them but you have to give Spurs massive credit – they took their chances when they got them! They badly needed that result to steady the ship after their recent run, but the system Ange Postecoglou wants to play is going to be tricky given their injuries. Spurs come into the game odds on – they are trading 1.84 at the time of writing with West Ham 4.3 and the draw is also 4.3. West Ham have had a pretty easy fixture list lately; they recorded wins against Nottingham Forest and Burnley but they could only draw with Crystal Palace at the weekend. They are still conceding a lot of chances – it’s been a while since they kept a clean sheet in the Premier League. They do face some weak opposition in their Europa League Group, but their average xG conceded in the Premier League is 1.73.
That’s the third worst record at the back in the Premier League this season, and West Ham have actually been conceding their expected goals. Why they are doing well is they are massively over-performing in front of goal. Their average xG created is 1.31 but their actually goals scored works out at 1.71. Spurs are going to get a lot of chances here, and their average xG created is very high at 1.74 too; that’s the third best figure in the league only behind Manchester City and Liverpool. I would definitely lean towards a Spurs back here, but this game absolutely screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.53, and Both Teams To Score is a very similar price at 1.55. Three of the last five meetings between the sides have finished with Over 2.5 goals, and the other two games had two goals. Both sides have been very open at the back this season, and I would have Overs trading under 1.5 here. I feel we’re getting plenty of value at 1.53, and given the stats I feel Overs is worth a Max Bet here.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotWhu
