WEDNESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Wednesday’s bumper fixture list including MAN U v CHELSEA all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BRIGHTON V BRENTFORD
7.30pm We’re in for a real treat on Wednesday night with a blockbuster evening of Premier League action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! All eyes will be on Manchester United v Chelsea, but Aston Villa v Manchester City is a cracking fixture too and we also have four fixtures to go through before we even get to those two games! We kick off the evening with Brighton hosting Brentford, and Brighton will be hoping to get back to winning ways here after another setback at the weekend. They were outplayed away to Chelsea; had a lot of the ball and plenty of shots, but they’ll be very disappointed with conceding three goals and only finishing the game with an xG of 1.11 considering they had 68% possession which is a huge figure for an away side. Brentford had a routine 3-1 win at home to Luton Town, and that got them back on track after losses to Liverpool and Arsenal. We have the two xG boys here, and it’s hard to see anything bar an entertaining game really. They will attack, and I can’t see either side sitting back – creating chances is the name of the game after all; these two clubs have had great success with that approach.
Brighton come into the game as the odds on favourites; they are trading 1.96 with Brentford 3.95 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. With one win from eight Premier League games, I wouldn’t be rushing to back Brighton at odds on here. Their stats are still good this season, but they just aren’t getting the results. Their draws here to Sheffield United and Fulham were poor; Sheffield United have been so poor in the Premier League too. Brighton clearly create more than Brentford, but the sides aren’t miles apart. They both have reasonably high xG conceded average figures too; I just feel this game screams goals and I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market to focus on the goals market. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.65 and I was very surprised to see it trading this high when I clicked into the market – I was expecting to see it trading at least in the 1.5’s. I feel we’re getting so much value at 1.65, Overs is worth a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriBrt
CRYSTAL PALACE V BOURNEMOUTH
7.30pm Crystal Palace host Bournemouth next and this is exactly the type of fixture that usually gets glossed over on Match of the Day unless we get some major drama. It is an interesting market though; Palace are the favourites at 2.26 with Bournemouth 3.5 and the draw is 3.55. Bournemouth managed to get a draw with Aston Villa at the weekend, and you have to respect that result because Villa have been playing some superb football under Unai Emery this season. That’s only one loss in their last five Premier League games for Bournemouth, and that was away to Manchester City too. They are clearly in good spirits, even allowing for the fact that their wins came against Sheffield United and Burnley – they managed to beat Newcastle too so it’s not just relegation contenders. The major worry with Bournemouth is they concede a huge amount of chances – their average xG conceded is the fourth worst in the Premier League. Away from home it rises to 1.86 which is pretty bad in fairness. However, they do create more than the sides around them, and you have to give them credit for that.
Crystal Palace play some very average football; they aren’t good enough to finish in the top ten let along compete for a European spot but at the same time they are too good to get into a relegation battle. It must actually be a little boring supporting them considering there’s never any real drama! They seem absolutely nailed on to finish between 12 and 14th! The 2.26 does feel a little short here though, despite the worries about Bournemouth. Palace managed a draw with West Ham at the weekend, but losing to Luton Town is a shocking result recently too. They’ve only recorded one win from their last seven Premier League games and I’m happy with a small home lay here. Happy to keep stakes very small and I expect a closer game than the odds suggest.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Crystal Palace to beat Bournemouth at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryBth
FULHAM V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
7.30pm We have a very similar game to the one just above next as Fulham host Nottingham Forest. We have a similar market too, expect Fulham are trading at a shorter price compared to Crystal Palace. The home win is 2.08 this time, with Nottingham Forest 3.95 and the draw is 3.6. I think it’s fair to say we have two sides that you wouldn’t really trust here – it’s certainly hard to have a lot of confidence in either side. Both sides are in the bottom six for chances created, and we could have a pretty cagey affair here. After the weekend’s performance, Nottingham Forest’s average xG created dropped to under 1.0. Only two other sides have an average xG figure under 1.0 in the Premier League and that’s Sheffield United and Luton Town; two sides odds on to get relegated. Forest thankfully haven’t been as bad at the back as those two sides, and that is what is keeping them away from the relegation zone. Both sides have been pretty average at the back however; they both have the same xG conceded figure of 1.53.
While Fulham are creating a little more chances than Forest, the difference isn’t huge. Fulham’s average xG created is only 1.13 which is still a very poor figure. Their home performances have been pretty average too, they are marginally conceded more than they are creating at home. The major worry here however is the Forest away performances. They were dreadful away from home last season, and their performance level is pretty poor away from home this season too – that being said, they did manage a win away to Chelsea earlier in the season! That was back in September though, and they haven’t won away since. I would lean towards a Fulham lay just because 2.08 is a little short, but Under 2.5 goals jumps off the page here at 1.83. We have two struggling sides in front of goal here, and Unders should be shorter in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulNtt
SHEFFIELD UNITED V LIVERPOOL
7.30pm We finish the 7.30pm games with Sheffield United hosting Liverpool. I would say that this should be a routine win for Liverpool, but I said that about them at the weekend and they needed an 88th minute winner after being 3-2 down with ten minutes to go. Classic Liverpool you might say; terrible at the back, superb going forward! They will be fully expected to win here however, and they come into the game trading as short as 1.22. At the time of writing, that’s just marginally the shortest price of the midweek fixtures – Arsenal to beat Luton Town is a very similar price but Liverpool just pip them! Sheffield United are by far the worst team in the Premier League this season; they are nailed on to get relegated back to the Championship and an embarrassing 5-0 defeat to Burnley at the weekend just rubber stamps that really. Their overall performance level is -1.22 which is the worst figure from the major leagues in Europe, never mind just the Premier League! They have been terrible going forward; their average xG created is only 0.78.
What do you do if you’re Sheffield United? You have to worst attacking record, and also the worst defensive record. What issue do you try fix first!? They have an average xG conceded of 2.0, and bringing a figure like that into a game against Liverpool just spells trouble. Liverpool are creating very close to two goals per game, and while I know they have been very open this season and conceded plenty of chances and goals along the way, they are really outscoring sides. That’s what happened the weekend after all! There’s no prizes for tipping 1.22 shots, but Liverpool are an excellent addition for any Acca this week. For my best bet however, I really like them to cover the Asian Handicap at -2. It’s trading 1.8, and as we know it’s stakes void if they win by exactly two goals. This looks a cracking position with all the goals Sheffield United have been conceding this season!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Liverpool -2 goals Asian Handicap to beat Sheffield United at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SheLiv
ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER CITY
8.15pm Now we’re into the top class fixtures, and we start the 8.15pm games with Aston Villa hosting Manchester City. This will be a very interesting game; Villa have been playing excellent football under Unai Emery this season and they currently sit in the Top Four. Obviously they will have dreams of getting into the Champions League; who wouldn’t after all but they know how many issues the likes of Spurs and Manchester United have had this season. Newcastle might be their main challengers with Chelsea also sitting in mid-table. It will be interesting to see how they shape up against City who are undoubtedly the best side in the Premier League, especially with home advantage. I know City were held to another draw at the weekend in a 3-3 thriller against Spurs, but they absolutely bossed the game and there was a huge difference in the xG figures. Aston Villa and Spurs actually had the same overall performance figure this weekend; but Spurs have been creating more chances. City come into the game as the odds on favourites, but there are still plenty of layers. They are trading 1.74 at the time of writing with Aston Villa 4.7 and the draw is 4.6.
The fact that City are as high as 1.74 is a sign of how the market respects this Villa side. City were hammered into 1.28 before kick off against Spurs. Villa were held to a 2-2 draw at Bournemouth at the weekend, but at home they have been very impressive. They’ve yet to lose at home this season, and they have been rock solid at the back too; their average xG conceded at home is only 1.03 and their average created is 1.73. Very strong figures, but they are coming up against the best side in the league here. It’s hard to fault this City side or pick holes in them. Their performance level is just consistently high every week – I know results go against them, but over time they will always come out on top. A classic example was the Spurs game at 3-3; the xG was 3.09 to 0.59. Play it again ten times, and City would win seven times or more. That being said, they’re going to have to work very hard for the victory here, and I feel Under 2.5 goals is worth a small bet at 2.74 which looks very big! Villa have been rock solid at home, and Emery will have them well set up here – I wouldn’t be surprised to see City grind out a 1-0 win, but I’d have Unders shorter.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AvlMci
MANCHESTER UNITED V CHELSEA
8.15pm We have saved the best fixture for last on Wednesday night as Manchester United host Chelsea. Once a title battle, now it’s a battle of who can avoid embarrassing themselves the least! Both sides have really been struggling this season; United had another defeat at the weekend where at times it looked like the players weren’t trying as hard as they could. Chelsea have downed tools at times too, and they currently sit in mid-table down in tenth – already a whopping ten points off the Top Four. Neither side look even close enough to be playing at a level to get a Top Four spot, and it will be interesting to see how this one plays out. While Manchester United have more points, Chelsea have been playing better football. Their average xG created is higher than United’s, and they are conceding less chances than United too. It might be a surprise to see Chelsea come into this game as the favourites in the betting, but anyone that has looked at the xG figures will understand why. Chelsea are trading 2.48 with Manchester United 2.98 and the draw is 3.8.
United have been all over the place this season, and it’s hard to have confidence in them in any form at the moment. Aside from the recent Everton win, even putting away average sides has been made look very difficult by United. The same can be said of Chelsea though; they have dropped a lot of points against weaker sides on paper. Really, we have two sides here that it’s hard to have faith in, but I don’t disagree with the odds here. Chelsea deserve to be favourites, and I don’t see much value in the match odds market – it looks right to me. If anything, I’d go for a United lay because they have been so poor this season. United have been conceding a very high volume of chances, and Chelsea have been consistently conceding sloppy goals too. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.69 and I can’t see past Overs here. Not only do we have two sides who are poor at the back and make mistakes, it’s hard to see them sitting back too. United won’t sit back at home, and Chelsea will know that they can have success here attacking this United side. Chelsea’s last four games have finished 4-1, 4-4, 4-1 and 3-2 – I’d be very surprised if we didn’t see goals here and the 1.69 is worth a confident bet to finish the evening.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunChl