WEDNESDAY FA CUP: The Striker previews the FA Cup replay between ASTON VILLA v CHELSEA including a recommended BETDAQ bet.

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8pm The FA Cup Fourth Round replays continue on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Wednesday night with a cracking all Premier League tie! Aston Villa host Chelsea in a game that they will be expected to win given how the sides have played in the Premier League this season. Chelsea have been all over the place this season and another loss to Wolves highlighted that again at the weekend. They had home advantage, shipped four goals and surely Mauricio Pochettino must get some pressure from the UK media soon.

Chelsea obviously have a Carabao Cup Final to look forward to, but they meet Liverpool in that and will go into that game as the underdogs. They sit in mid-table in the Premier League though and face another season without European football. Chelsea have been called trigger happy with their management decisions over the past few seasons but we’re getting to the point, results wise, where the manger must surely be feeling the heat.

It’s been a different story for Unai Emery and Aston Villa however! He has transformed them into a Top Four side, and they moved further clear in the battle for fourth at the weekend as they comfortably beat Sheffield United while Spurs dropped points against Everton. That gives Villa a two point cushion; the battle for fourth is only between those two so Villa have an excellent chance – they have been a lot more solid than Spurs at the back.

The home side come into the game as the favourites at 2.3 with Chelsea 3.25 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. It was interesting to see Chelsea trading at a shorter price when they had home advantage a couple of weeks ago. They were trading 2.2 and we landed a lay bet – this time I fancy a home win more than a home lay given the way the sides have performed this season!

Villa have been better than Chelsea in every department. After the weekend there was 15 points between them in the table as Chelsea slipped into the bottom half of the table. Villa have an average xG created of 1.63 compared to Chelsea’s 1.49. While Villa have been much more solid at the back too; their average xG conceded is just 1.24 compared to Chelsea’s at 1.44. That average xG conceded figure for Aston Villa is the fourth best in the Premier League.

It’s obvious that Villa have been a lot more comfortable at home this season. Some of their best performances have come here, along with a long winning run. They are still playing good football away from home too! They have given away a lot less at home though; their average xG conceded is as low as 1.06 at home. The only thing to say about Chelsea is their level of performance is very similar at home and away, so being away from home doesn’t seem to be a negative here. The problem for Chelsea is that they just haven’t been good enough all season. I’d have Villa much shorter than 2.3 here – they should be shorter than the Chelsea price when the sides met the first time in my opinion, and I’m happy with a confident bet at 2.3.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Aston Villa to beat Chelsea at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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