WEDNESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews BRIGHTON v MANCHESTER CITY with FACTMAN stats and recommended BETDAQ bets.
BRIGHTON V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm We have midweek Premier League action this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as we catch up on some games in hand before the final day on Sunday. It’s slightly unfortunate from a drama point of view that results at the weekend has meant our two games over Wednesday and Thursday are effectively meaningless games, but we have two very interesting fixtures nonetheless. Manchester United host Chelsea on Thursday night, but we should have a very entertaining game on Wednesday as Brighton host Manchester City.
With Nottingham Forest beating Arsenal on Saturday evening, Manchester City were handed the title before kicking a ball against Chelsea on Sunday. That meant Pep Guardiola took the opportunity to rest players, but his side still ran out 1-0 winners against a Chelsea side who look to have given up on this season. The appointment of Frank Lampard has looked a really bad decision, both at the time and in hindsight! Brighton’s season has been impacted by the chaos at Chelsea too as they took their manager Graham Potter. With Potter not lasting long at Chelsea, one wonders if he regrets his decision now. I suppose he had to go for Champions League football, but he was going a great job at Brighton.
Manchester City come into this game as the odds on favourites at 1.81. Brighton are trading 4.3 and the draw is 4.5 at the time of writing. It will be very interesting to see what kind of side Pep Guardiola opts to name here, and from a trading point of view it will be fastest fingers first when the team news breaks. He opted to rest Haaland and De Bruyne at the weekend – City have an FA Cup Final and a Champions League Final coming up so I can’t see him risking any major players for the final two Premier League games. I know Haaland is probably asking to play however to further extend his goal record!
It’s hard to know what to expect with the teams new here, so I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market. This game absolutely screams goals in my opinion – Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.56 and I’d have Overs trading under 1.5 personally. You don’t need me to tell you how good City have been going forward this season but their average xG created is 2.4. I only mention that figure to compare it to Brighton’s at 2.1 which highlights how good Brighton have been this season up front. Brighton have been playing an exceptionally open game recently too – their last four games have had score lines of 5-1, 3-0, 4-1 and 3-1. I can’t see City sitting back given the title is in the bag and I expect a very entertaining game here. I feel we’re getting so much value at 1.56 on Over 2.5 goals that it’s worth a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriMci
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brighton have lost 10 of their 11 Premier League games against Manchester City, with the exception being a 3-2 home win in May 2021.
● Manchester City have never failed to score in a Premier League game against Brighton, netting 33 goals in their 11 meetings for an average of three per game.
● Brighton have won their final home league game in each of the last two campaigns, including a 3-2 win over Manchester City in 2020-21. They last did so in three consecutive seasons between 1990-91 and 1992-93.
● Manchester City have won each of their last 25 Premier League games on a Wednesday by an aggregate scoreline of 68-11. It’s the longest winning run any side has had on a specific day in the competition’s history.
● Brighton have won just one of their seven Premier League games against sides starting the day top (L6), however that victory did come against Manchester City, at the Amex, on MD37 back in 2020-21, coming from two goals down to win 3-2.
● There have been 15 instances of a team winning 12 consecutive games in English top-flight history, with Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side accounting for five of those runs (including their current run of 12). They last enjoyed a longer winning run in the Premier League between December 2020 – March 2021 (15).
● Since Roberto De Zerbi’s first game in charge of Brighton in October, their Premier League games have seen more goals than any other club’s (104 – 59 for, 45 against). Indeed, only Man City (70) and Arsenal (66) have scored more top-flight goals than De Zerbi’s side in this time (59).
● Manchester City’s Phil Foden has scored in all four of his Premier League starts against Brighton, being involved in six goals in total in these four matches (5 goals, 1 assist).
● Pascal Groß has scored 26 Premier League goals, the joint-most by a Brighton player in the competition, alongside Glenn Murray and Neal Maupay. In the Seagulls’ history, only Michael Robinson (37) has more goals in the top-flight overall than Groß.
● Only Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (7) has been involved in more away Premier League goals against Brighton than Manchester City’s Riyad Mahrez, with his five goal involvements against the Seagulls coming in his last four visits to the Amex (2 goals, 3 assists).