WEDNESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Wednesday’s Premier League games between BRIGHTON v WOLVES, BURNLEY v WATFORD, CRYSTAL PALACE v SOUTHAMPTON and ARSENAL v WEST HAM all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
BRIGHTON V WOLVES
7.30pm The midweek round of Premier League fixtures continue on Wednesday and we have a busy evening on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. All eyes will no doubt be on Arsenal v West Ham later, but we have three very interesting markets kicking off at 7-30pm. All three markets almost have identical odds, and it’s a question of how confident are you on the home side winning as favourites. We start the evening with Brighton hosting Wolves, and I have to say this is a tricky game to call. Both sides come into the game on a run without a win, and Brighton have been drawing a lot of games recently. Ideally, I wouldn’t mind taking on Brighton as favourites but you can clearly see that Wolves are out of form at the moment looking at their xG figures. You could say that Wolves have had a tough fixture list having had to play Manchester City and Liverpool, but prior to that they were performing poorly. They only created an xG of 0.32 away to Crystal Palace, 0.36 away to Norwich and then couldn’t beat Burnley with home advantage.
Even though Wolves, on the face of it, only conceded two goals in the two games against Manchester City and Liverpool the xG figures tell a different story. They conceded an xG of 2.65 to Liverpool and 3.11 to Manchester City – they could have easily lost those two games 3-0. It’s hard to be tough on sides facing City and Liverpool because they are playing so good at the moment, and I would be more worried about their other recent performances to be honest. That leaves us in a tricky situation here, because Brighton just aren’t winning games at the moment – however I don’t feel Wolves are playing well enough to support laying Brighton at 2.26. I definitely wouldn’t be a backer, but I also wouldn’t lay them! Both sides have had pretty tight games recently, and the value call here is under 2.5 goals at 1.6. Unders jumps off the page for this game, and I can see this being very close with few chances in front of goal.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBriwol
● After winning their first Premier League meeting with Wolves in October 2018, Brighton are winless in their last five against them in the competition (D4 L1).
● Wolves won 2-1 against Brighton in their last league meeting in May, but they’ve never won consecutive league games against the Seagulls before.
● Brighton have won two of their last four midweek Premier League games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), this after having won just two of their first 26 such matches in the competition beforehand (D10 L14).
● Wolves have won just one of their nine Premier League away games on a Wednesday (D3 L5), beating Liverpool 1-0 at Anfield in December 2010.
● Despite being on the longest current winless run in the Premier League (10 games – D8 L2), only the current top three clubs have lost fewer Premier League games than Brighton this season (Man City 2, Liverpool 1, Chelsea 2).
● Wolves have failed to score in any of their last four Premier League games since beating West Ham 1-0 last month. They’ve not gone five league games without a goal since August/September 2003.
● Only Wolves (5) and Norwich (5) have scored fewer home goals in the Premier League this season than Brighton (6). It’s the first time in the Premier League the Seagulls have averaged fewer than a goal a game at the Amex Stadium within a season.
● Of all teams to have played in more than one Premier League campaign, Brighton have seen the highest share of their games in the competition finish in a draw (35% – 58/167).
● After having at least 10 shots in each of their first five league games this season, Wolves have managed to reach double figures in just three of their last 11. Bruno Lage’s side have mustered just five shots across their last two Premier League games combined (3 vs Liverpool, 2 vs Man City).
● Neal Maupay is Brighton’s highest scorer in the Premier League this season with six goals. He’s had three occasions where he’s scored in consecutive appearances this term, last scoring in three games in a row in October 2020.
BURNLEY V WATFORD
7.30pm This is one of those fixtures that most casual football fans will just skip over because it kicks off at the same time as other games, but it’s absolutely massive. Indeed, could you say this is the most important game at the bottom of the table this season? Newcastle v Norwich was important, but they would still stay in the bottom three. If Burnley can beat Watford here, they jump out of the bottom three and they also have a game in hand too – although that game is against Spurs; but you never know with Spurs these days so they could get a result there! Burnley will know that this is a massive chance for them to get out of the bottom three, especially with home advantage. However, despite a tough fixture list recently Watford have been playing some reasonably good football. I wouldn’t be too confident on Burnley to be honest, and the 2.22 looks a little short on a side who have only won once all season. Burnley are the draw specialists of the Premier League!
As I said above, Watford have had a tough fixture list recently. They come into the game off the back of five losses in six games, but they have had to play Arsenal, Manchester United, Leicester, Chelsea and Manchester City in that run. They managed to get Solskjaer sacked with a 4-1 win over Manchester United, but they most disappointing performance came away to Brentford at the weekend. They deserved to lose 2-1. While Man City hammered them 3-1, they actually deserved a draw against Chelsea and finished the game with a higher xG than Leicester when they lost there. This is bound to be a cagey game with so much one the line, and I just can’t get away from the Burnley lay at 2.22. When you think about this game, you expect it to be very close and the odds on Burnley just don’t reflect that. Watford might offer an edge to back over 2.5 goals given their open style of play, but the Burnley lay is hard to ignore.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Burnley to beat Watford at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBurwat
● Burnley have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three league games against Watford (W2 D1), as many as they’d managed in their previous 20 against the Hornets.
● Watford have won just one of their last 12 away league games against Burnley (D4 L7), winning 3-1 in the Premier League in August 2018.
● Burnley have won just two of their 12 Premier League home games on Wednesdays (D5 L5) – 1-0 against Man Utd in August 2009 (their first ever victory in the competition) and 3-2 against Aston Villa in January last season.
● Watford have taken just two points from their 39 available away from home in Premier League games played on Wednesdays (W0 D2 L11), with those points coming at Stoke in January 2018 (0-0) and Bournemouth in January 2019 (3-3).
● Burnley have won just one of their last seven Premier League home games against promoted clubs (D4 L2), though that victory did come in their last such game against Brentford in October (3-1).
● Burnley have failed to score in each of their last three Premier League games, attempting just 25 shots (8.3 per game) in those fixtures, with just three of those on target (1 per game). The Clarets last went four league matches without scoring in November 2020.
● Watford are the only side without a Premier League clean sheet this season. They’ve conceded in each of their last 26 games in the competition, the longest run without a clean sheet by any club in the division since Burnley’s run of 29 games between November 2009 and August 2014.
● Burnley have won just one of their 15 league matches this season (D8 L6); only in 1889-90 and 1979-80 (both 0) have they had fewer wins at this stage of a league campaign. Before this season, just one of the last 10 sides to win just one (or fewer) of their first 15 games of a Premier League campaign avoided relegation, with Southampton doing so in 2018-19.
● Watford boss Claudio Ranieri has lost each of his last five Premier League games against sides managed by English managers, including two defeats against Sean Dyche’s Burnley in that run. The Italian had only lost four of his previous 32 such clashes in the competition (W23 D5).
● Emmanuel Dennis has been directly involved in nine goals in his last seven Premier League games for Watford (5 goals, 4 assists), having a hand in 64% of the goals the Hornets have scored in these games (9/14).
CRYSTAL PALACE V SOUTHAMPTON
7.30pm We have another interesting market here, and pretty much the same odds as the other two games kicking off at 7-30pm! Crystal Palace are trading 2.26 at the time of writing, and although I wouldn’t be hugely confident I do feel they are the best favourite from the 7-30pm games. Indeed, they are probably the best favourite tonight as you couldn’t be confident of Arsenal beating West Ham later. Palace recorded a nice 3-1 win over Everton at the weekend, they looked comfortable and took full of advantage of Everton looking a little lost at times. That result is going to pile the pressure on Rafa Benitez at Everton, but it was nice to end a losing run of three games for Palace. Southampton haven’t been playing badly this season, but they have found wins hard to come by. Once again they have put a run of five games together without a win, and they were poor at the weekend away to Arsenal. Although they have been creating a steady xG figure, they have also been conceding a steady xG figure.
Southampton have conceded an xG of 1.85, 1.66, 1.76 and 2.62 in their last four games. They have had to play Liverpool, Leicester and Arsenal in that run so perhaps we shouldn’t be too harsh, but they are definitely in the relegation battle at the moment. Ideally, they would like a draw between Burnley and Watford tonight! Crystal Palace were unlucky to lose against Manchester United, and you could also say that they were unlucky against Leeds and Aston Villa too. They actually finished with an xG of over double what Aston Villa created. I feel with the chances Southampton are conceding at the moment, Palace are good value here at 2.26. They’re going to get chances and they are creating a lot too – this seems an ideal time to get against Southampton especially with the rock solid home form from Palace.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Crystal Palace to beat Southampton at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCrysou
● Crystal Palace have lost five of their last eight Premier League home games against Southampton (W3), though they did win this exact fixture 1-0 last season.
● Of teams they’ve faced at least 10 times in the Premier League, against no side have Southampton won a higher share of their games in the competition than they have against Crystal Palace (58% – 14/24).
● Crystal Palace have won just one of their last 16 Premier League games on a Wednesday (D7 L8), while at home they’re winless in 11 top-flight Wednesday games since beating Aston Villa 1-0 in February 1993.
● Southampton haven’t won any of their last 24 Premier League away games played on Wednesdays (D8 L16), with their last such victory coming at Chelsea in April 1995 (2-0).
● Crystal Palace have only lost one of their eight home Premier League games this season (W3 D4); only Liverpool (none) have lost fewer matches on home soil in the competition this term. The Eagles are looking to win back-to-back league matches at Selhurst Park for the first time since March 2020.
● Southampton have conceded a league-high 73 Premier League goals in 2021 – only four sides have ever conceded more in a single calendar year in the competition: Ipswich Town in 1994 (79), Bradford City in 2000 (76), Watford in 2017 (75) and Oldham Athletic in 1993 (74).
● Conor Gallagher has been directly involved in 41% of Crystal Palace’s 22 goals in the Premier League this season (six goals, three assists), the highest proportion for any team by an English player in the competition this term heading into MD17. In fact, Gallagher has either scored (four) or assisted (two) six of the Eagles’ last 11 league goals (55%).
● Southampton have scored 14 Premier League goals this season, but have an xG tally of 20.6. Only Norwich have a higher negative difference between expected goals (15.0) and actual goals (8) in the competition so far this term.
● Southampton have lost 15 of their last 19 Premier League away games (W2 D2), with Saints conceding 50 goals and scoring just 13 in these matches.
● Crystal Palace striker Christian Benteke has scored six goals in his last nine Premier League games against Southampton – only against Chelsea and Sunderland (seven each) has he scored more in the competition.
ARSENAL V WEST HAM
8pm The Premier League have saved the best until last this evening as Arsenal host West Ham. It was unfortunate for West Ham, and for us because we backed them, that they couldn’t beat Burnley at the weekend. That leaves them under pressure in the race for the Top Four with Manchester United, Arsenal and Spurs all right behind them after the weekend. Despite that poor result, and poor performance too, they still have the advantage and a result here would be a massive boost for them. They will surely fancy this game too as Arsenal have come up short against the better sides this season. Although Arsenal got back to winning ways at the weekend against Southampton, they looked very poor against Everton and let United create too many chances too. Importantly, those two losses came away from home and recently they have been winning their home games. The question here is, is that because the home games have been relatively easy fixtures? This is a fascinating game, and it will be interesting to see how Arsenal perform.
I expect a very good game here. West Ham have managed wins against Liverpool and Chelsea this season, however both of those results have come at home. Can they beat of the “top sides” away? Are Arsenal still a “top side?” is probably a better question too. Arsenal are very short here at 2.16 based on how the sides have played for the last two years. Arsenal always look good when they have time and space against the weaker sides, but when they are in a tough situation they always tend to come up short – the Everton game is a classic example of that I feel. West Ham have been attacking well this season, and if they can attack Arsenal here they will have success. I was very disappointed with the Hammers the weekend, but from a value point of view the 2.16 is just too short here and I have to lay Arsenal.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (Liability) Arsenal to beat West Ham at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQArswhu
● Arsenal have won 10 of their last 11 home league games against West Ham, losing the other 2-0 in August 2015.
● After winning three Premier League games in a row against Arsenal between February 2006 and April 2007, West Ham have won just two of their last 26 against the Gunners in the competition (D5 L19).
● Arsenal have lost just one of their 22 Premier League games at the Emirates played on a Wednesday (W14 D7), going down 2-1 against Swansea in March 2016. Before this, they’d also won 12 of their last 14 Wednesday league games at Highbury (D1 L1), though that one defeat was against West Ham in February 2006.
● Between January 29th, 2019 and July 8th, 2020, West Ham lost nine of their 11 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (W2). Since then, the Hammers are unbeaten in eight such games in the competition (W4 D4).
● Arsenal have lost two of their four Premier League London derby matches this season (W1 D1), already more than they lost in the whole of 2020-21 (W6 D3 L1). Meanwhile, West Ham are looking to win three consecutive league London derbies for the first time since January 2019, the third game of which came against Arsenal.
● Arsenal have won their last four Premier League home games, keeping a clean sheet in each of the last three. The Gunners last won four in a row at home without conceding back in April/May 2017, with the fourth victory in that run coming against David Moyes’ Sunderland.
● Arsenal striker Alexandre Lacazette has scored five Premier League goals against West Ham, netting in each of his last three appearances against the Hammers. Against no side has he scored more in the competition (also five vs Southampton).
● West Ham manager David Moyes has never won away against Arsenal in the Premier League in 17 attempts (D4 L13) – it’s the most a manager has played away at single club without ever winning in the competition.
● This will be West Ham boss David Moyes’ 600th Premier League game as a manager (currently W236 D161 L202), only the fourth manager to reach the milestone in the competition after Arsène Wenger, Alex Ferguson and Harry Redknapp.
● West Ham’s Michail Antonio has been directly involved in 11 goals in his last 11 Premier League London derbies (5 goals, 6 assists). Only Carlton Cole (14) has scored more Premier League London derby goals for the Hammers than Antonio (11).