PREMIER LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Striker previews Wednesday’s four matches including CHELSEA v ARSENAL all with extended match stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CHELSEA V ARSENAL
7.45pm The midweek Premier League action continues on Wednesday night, and we have a cracker night ahead on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have some huge games tonight which will have a big impact on the race for the title, Top Four and then relegation battle as Everton are in action too. We have three games kicking off at 7-45pm, and we start with the highlight fixture of the night at Chelsea host Arsenal. It’s been a tough few weeks for Arsenal fans as they have watched their side throw away their advantage in the Top Four race – they now have a pretty difficult fixture list coming up, and they threw away another golden chance at the weekend when losing to Southampton after Spurs had lost to Brighton in the early kick off. It seems nobody wants to finish fourth – but the reality is that Manchester United, Arsenal and Spurs are just completely unreliable these days. They are average sides, and it’s showing. Obviously Arsenal have faced a huge amount of criticism on this run but they have been unlucky. They finished with higher xG figures in the losses to Brighton and Southampton, and to be fair to them they didn’t play that badly. They aren’t just rolling over under pressure, and I would suggest there’s still more drama to come in the race for fourth.
The major issue is they have a very tough fixture here. With Spurs not in action this weekend, this is effectively Arsenal’s game in hand and if they lose this they will end up sitting three points behind Spurs having played the same number of games which given the goal difference in Spurs favour too gives them a huge uphill task. Chelsea have been brilliant lately too – I said a few weeks ago that they were playing average football looking at their xG figures, but they have really turned a corner in recent weeks. Since the 3-1 loss to Real Madrid in the first leg of the Champions League they hammered Southampton 6-0, produced probably their best performance of the season in the second leg of the Champions League to beat Real Madrid 3-1 in normal time and then impressed in the second half of the FA Cup Semi-Final at the weekend against Crystal Palace. It seems like this is a good time to get on the Chelsea train while they are creating so many chances. I know Arsenal are playing better than the bare results at the moment, and while the Chelsea bet at 1.92 is very tempting – I can’t get away from over 2.5 goals here. Both sides have been creating a lot of chances recently and I think we’ll get a very entertaining game here. Overs is 2.08 which is just marginally better value in my opinion to the Chelsea win.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheArs
● Chelsea are looking to complete their first league double over Arsenal since 2015-16, following their 2-0 victory at the Emirates earlier this season.
● Arsenal won this exact fixture 1-0 last season courtesy of Emile Smith Rowe’s second ever league goal for the club. The Gunners haven’t won back-to-back away league games against Chelsea since September 1997.
● Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 11 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) league meetings with Chelsea (W5 D6), since a 2-1 home loss in December 1974.
● Chelsea have lost their last two home games in all competitions (1-4 v Brentford, 1-3 v Real Madrid), as many as they had in their previous 27 at Stamford Bridge (W17 D8). The Blues haven’t lost three consecutive home games since November 1993, the third game of which was a 2-0 loss to Arsenal.
● Chelsea lost 4-1 against Brentford in the Premier League last time out at Stamford Bridge – they’ve not lost consecutive home London derbies since March/October 1999, with the second game being a 3-2 loss to Arsenal thanks to Kanu’s late hat-trick.
● Arsenal have lost their last two away league London derbies, going down 2-0 at Brentford and 3-0 at Crystal Palace. They last lost three in a row in April 2017, while they’ve never lost three in a row without scoring a single goal before.
● Arsenal have lost each of their last three Premier League games, their third run of three straight league defeats in their three seasons under Mikel Arteta. The Gunners haven’t lost four consecutive league games since March 1995 under Stewart Houston.
● Timo Werner netted twice in Chelsea’s 6-0 victory against Southampton last time out, having scored just twice in his previous 27 appearances in the Premier League. Only once has the German scored in consecutive Premier League games before, doing so in November 2020.
● If Mason Mount plays, it will be his 100th Premier League appearance for Chelsea. With 23 goals and 18 assists, he’s been involved in more goals than any other English player in their first 100 Premier League games for the Blues (41).
● At 37 years and 210 days on the day of this game, Thiago Silva would be the oldest outfield player to ever play for Chelsea in the Premier League. The previous oldest was Graham Rix (37 years 203 days), whose appearance also came against Arsenal in a 2-1 victory in May 1995.
EVERTON V LEICESTER
7.45pm We have another huge game for Everton here as they host Leicester. It’s easy to say in hindsight, but perhaps we should have seen the win for Everton coming against Manchester United – after all, who else is bad enough to give Everton three points! That was a majorly embarrassing defeat for Manchester United, but that’s just reflection of where they are as a club at the moment. Nevertheless, Everton won’t care about the woes in Manchester – that was a huge three points for them ahead of a very tough run-in. Burnley picked up a point at the weekend away to West Ham, perhaps unexpectedly too given West Ham started the game odds on, and the gap is back to three points starting this game. Burnley are back in action tomorrow night against Southampton, so in that sense this isn’t Everton’s game in hand over Burnley. You have to say that Everton are still in a very good position to stay up – they have a three point advantage and a game in hand – but they still have to play Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal. They actually play Leicester again in early May, and they simply have to target the Watford game because they are unlikely to pick up points against Liverpool and Chelsea – they won’t slip up like Manchester United.
Everton will be looking at this fixture thinking they can put a bigger gap between themselves and Burnley tonight, but I feel they are too short at 2.4. That price doesn’t reflect how poor they have been this season. I know Leicester have also been very poor this season, but I would have the market very open here – almost having the sides the same price. Leicester’s unbeaten run came to an end last weekend with Newcastle “robbing” the game in the 95th minute. I say “robbing” because they didn’t really rob it, they deserved the three points looking at the xG figures they just left it late to score. I felt Leicester were playing well enough going into that game to get a result, and while they came very close they didn’t play well at all. They conceded an xG of 2.38 and only created 0.60. I’d be lying if I said I was confident of a good performance here, but I still feel that the odds don’t reflect how this game will go. Everton are still a very average side, and the win over United doesn’t change much – I still feel that the 2.4 is worth laying in what should be a very close game.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Everton to beat Leicester at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveLei
● Everton have kept just one clean sheet in their 15 Premier League home games against Leicester, a 0-0 draw in January 1999. They’ve gone on to lose just two of these 15 meetings, however (W5 D8).
● After 13 of the first 18 Premier League meetings between Everton (4 wins) and Leicester (1) finished level, just one of the last 12 between the sides in the competition has been drawn, though that draw was in this exact fixture last season.
● Everton are looking to win consecutive Premier League games for the first time since September, following their 1-0 win against Manchester United last time out. However, Everton have lost 18 of their last 21 Premier League games in which they’ve conceded at least once (W1 D2).
● Everton have earned 79% of their Premier League points in home games this season (22/28), the highest ratio of any side. Only twice have the Toffees earned a higher share of their points in home games across a full league season – 84% in 1936-37 (31/37) and 80% in 1888-89 (16/20).
● Only three teams – Newcastle (24), Southampton (23) and Leeds (19) – have dropped more points from winning positions this season in the Premier League than Leicester (17), with the Foxes only dropping more points in three seasons in the competition: 21 in 1999-00, 28 in 2003-04 and 20 in 2017-18.
● Leicester City have lost eight away Premier League matches this season, including six of their last eight on the road in the competition (W1 D1). The Foxes last suffered more than eight defeats in a season in 2017-18 (9).
● Everton manager Frank Lampard hasn’t won any of his three Premier League games against Leicester (D2 L1) – no side has he faced more often without ever winning than the Foxes (also 3 vs Liverpool).
● Everton striker Richarlison has scored in four of his last six Premier League games against Leicester. The Brazilian has only netted more Premier League goals against Southampton and Wolves (5 each) than he has against the Foxes (4).
● Leicester’s Kelechi Iheanacho has been involved in four goals in his last four appearances against Everton in all competitions (2 goals, 2 assists). He’s played just 157 minutes across these four games, averaging a goal or assist every 39 minutes against the Toffees in that run.
● Everton’s Anthony Gordon has been directly involved in five goals (four goals, one assist) in his last six Premier League starts at Goodison Park, while he’s either scored (4) or assisted (1) five of the Toffee’s last seven home goals in the competition.
NEWCASTLE V CRYSTAL PALACE
7.45pm We finish the 7-45pm games with Newcastle hosting Crystal Palace. It’s fair to say that this game might get lost tonight going up against Chelsea v Arsenal and Everton v Leicester, but it’s an interesting game in its own right. It will be interesting to see how Crystal Palace respond to crashing out of the FA Cup at the weekend with a 2-0 loss to Chelsea – after all they don’t have anything to play for in the Premier League. It might be difficult to motivate the players now to the end of the season, but let’s wait and see. Patrick Vieira dealt with the loss very well I thought; he basically admitted Chelsea were too good and Crystal Palace as a club had a good day out in Wembley, which is true. Newcastle are pretty much the same price as Everton at home to Leicester, and although I’m not rushing to back Newcastle here at 2.42, I do feel that they are a much better option compared to Everton at more or less the same price. Newcastle have put together two impressive home performances with wins over Wolves and Leicester following a run of losses away from home.
I’m keen to keep stakes pretty small here because I feel it’s hard to know what type of performance we’re going to get from Crystal Palace after the weekend, but Newcastle make a lot of appeal here at the odds. They created xG figures of 1.62 and 2.38 against Wolves and Leicester here, while only conceding 0.28 and 0.60. They are very impressive figures, and I know that Crystal Palace have been playing good football this season but I feel that this might just be a good time to be against them. Newcastle have some very good momentum and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a hangover from Wembley for Palace. Keep stakes small, and watch the Palace energy levels in the opening 20 minutes, but the 2.42 is worth taking on Newcastle for a small investment.
The Striker Says:
One point win Newcastle to beat Crystal Palace at 2.42 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewCry
● Newcastle have lost three of their last six league games against Crystal Palace (W2 D1), as many as they had in their previous 24 against the Eagles (W15 D6).
● Crystal Palace won this exact fixture 2-1 last season – they’ve never won back-to-back away league games against Newcastle before.
● London clubs have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League visits to St James’ Park (W7 D4), with Newcastle beating West Ham 3-2 in April 2021. The Magpies have conceded at least three goals in all four of their home games against London sides so far this term (D1 L3).
● Crystal Palace’s defeat at Leicester City last time out was their first defeat in six Premier League games (W3 D2). They last lost consecutive league matches in December 2021 (a run of three).
● Crystal Palace have won just six of their 38 Premier League games played on Wednesdays (16%) – only on Fridays (0 wins from 8 games) do the Eagles have a lower win rate in the competition.
● Newcastle United have won their last five home Premier League matches, last winning six in a row between January and April 2004 under Sir Bobby Robson. Before this run, the Magpies had won just four of their last 24 games at St James’ Park (D11 L9).
● Newcastle have won eight of their 13 Premier League matches in 2022 (D2 L3), as many as they won in 42 attempts in 2021 (W8 D13 L21). This year, only Liverpool (32) and Spurs (27) have won more points than the Magpies (26).
● Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has lost each of his last three Premier League games against Crystal Palace, conceding eight goals in total. He had only lost one of his first seven against the Eagles, conceding nine goals in that run (W2 D4 L1).
● Newcastle striker Chris Wood has scored three goals in his five home Premier League games against Crystal Palace, including a strike for Burnley at Turf Moor in a 3-3 draw earlier this season
● Crystal Palace winger Wilfried Zaha has scored 11 goals in 26 Premier League games this season, his joint-best return in a single top-flight campaign (also 11 last season). The Ivorian is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League appearances for the first time since February 2019.
MANCHESTER CITY V BRIGHTON
8pm We finish Wednesday night football in the Premier League with Manchester City hosting Brighton. City were involved in another ding-dong battle at the weekend with Liverpool and unfortunately for them this time they came up short in a 3-2 loss. Liverpool were absolutely superb in the first half going into the break 3-0 up – to be fair to City they nearly came back but the damage was done in the first half. Once again it was highlighted what a high level of football we get from both sides, but City can’t sit back and feel sorry for themselves here with the title on the line. Every game is a must win game now in the title race, and Brighton come into this clash off the back of wins against Arsenal and Spurs. I know how unreliable Arsenal and Spurs are, so Manchester City won’t be too bothered by those results, and even the Brighton manager said his side will have to be much better tonight. You’d have to expect City to come through, but Brighton have been playing some good football this season and I wouldn’t be rushing to back City at 1.22. It’s definitely a price where you can watch without getting involved!
It will be interesting to see what kind of tactics both sides employ here. City aren’t afraid to play an open game, safe in the knowledge that they are far likely to out score any side they play but Brighton have been keeping games pretty tight recently. The game against Spurs barely had any chances, and while they had to hold on at times against Arsenal they were pretty solid. They were lucky not to concede, but the luck all swings around because they were unlucky not to score against Norwich the week before. City come into this game without a win in their last three games in all competitions which must be very unusual for them! I know they have played in three massive games, two against Liverpool, but I can’t see them running riot here. Brighton have the confidence of beating Spurs and Arsenal, and I think they can keep the score line respectable here. I still feel City will grind out a win, but there won’t be too much between the sides. Brighton are trading 2.4 +1.5 goals on the handicap which is worth a small investment in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
One point win Brighton +1.5 goals to beat Manchester City at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciBri
● Man City have never lost a home league game against Brighton (W9 D2) – no side have they ever faced more at home in their league history without ever losing than their 11 against the Seagulls.
● Brighton have lost eight of their nine Premier League games against Man City, with the exception being a 3-2 home win last season. They’ve conceded 27 goals in these nine meetings, at an average of three per game.
● Brighton won 1-0 at Liverpool last season and could become just the third team to win away against the reigning Premier League champions in consecutive seasons after Tottenham (v Leicester in 2016-17 and Chelsea in 2017-18) and Liverpool (v Man Utd in 2000-01 and 2001-02).
● Man City have failed to win two of their last three Premier League games (D2), having failed to win just two of their previous 18 (W16 D1 L1). The Citizens’ 2-2 draw with Liverpool last time out was the first time they’ve opened the scoring but failed to win in the Premier League this season.
● Brighton have won just one of their 16 Premier League games on Wednesdays (6.3%), though that victory was away at reigning champions Liverpool last season. Of all teams to have played 10+ games on the day, only Watford (5.3%) and Portsmouth (5%) have a lower win rate than the Seagulls.
● After a seven-game winless run in the Premier League, Brighton have now won each of their last two. The Seagulls haven’t won three consecutive league games since October 2018 under Chris Hughton.
● Man City have won each of their last 18 Premier League games on a Wednesday – only Liverpool have had a longer winning run on a specific day of the week (21 on Saturdays between 2018 and 2020).
● Man City’s Phil Foden has been involved in five goals in his three Premier League starts against Brighton, scoring four and assisting one. The 21-year-old has scored more Premier League goals against the Seagulls than he has any other side in the competition (4).
● Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has scored 11 Premier League goals this season. He’s only netted more in 2019-20 (13), while this is the only campaign in which he’s scored more goals than he’s assisted (3 assists). The Belgian is also looking to score in three consecutive league games for the first time since October 2015.
● Leandro Trossard has scored six Premier League goals for Brighton this season, his best return in a single campaign. The Belgian opened the scoring against Arsenal and netted the Seagulls’ winner against Tottenham in the last two games, with no Brighton player ever scoring in three consecutive Premier League away games before.