PREMIER LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Striker previews Wednesday’s Premier League games all with extended match stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LEEDS V CHELSEA
7.30pm The Premier League fixtures just keep coming this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and we have a busy Wednesday night ahead. It’s another huge night in the relegation battle with Leeds and Everton both in action. We start the evening with a side under pressure as Leeds take on Chelsea. Burnley and Everton have been excellent in recent weeks, and although Burnley had a big setback at the weekend the win for Everton over Chelsea last weekend and then Leicester at the weekend too leaves Leeds in a difficult position. Leeds fans would have been delighted to see Burnley lose at the weekend, but what is all basically means now is that it’s a straight shootout between Leeds and Burnley as to who goes down. As it stands, both sides are level on points but it is Leeds who sit in the bottom three on goal difference. That goal difference is massive too, so that won’t be turned around. Leeds find themselves with a difficult fixture here, and after all the talk about the Everton fixture list being difficult they are through that now and Leeds have had to play Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea right at the time when Burnley and Everton were winning too. Despite the obvious difficulty in this fixture list, Chelsea have only managed one win in their last five games and that was a win at home over West Ham.
So although Chelsea are odds on favourites here and to be honest it’s hard to see past them, there are reasons for Leeds fans to have some hope. Chelsea also have an FA Cup Final at the weekend over Liverpool and with essentially nothing to play for here we could see them already focused on Wembley at the weekend. From a trading point of view I would keep a close eye on the team news here because we could see some changes from Chelsea. Ironically Leeds conceded the exact same xG figure against Man City and Arsenal with 2.73 (it’s not often you see that!) but it’s also fair to forgive any side losing to Man City and Arsenal have been playing pretty well recently. I feel Leeds have a better chance of a result here, but at the same time there is a gulf in class between the sides. It’s hard to argue too much with the Chelsea price at 1.69 and that looks a pretty fair price – I wouldn’t want to lay them but at the same time you couldn’t price them lower. I feel the better value option is the goals market. Over 2.5 goals is the same price as the Chelsea win, and with Leeds backing overs is always a good option. Chelsea don’t need to grind out a result here, and we should see an open game. As I said at the weekend, even though they lost Leeds’ best form of defence is attack and I can see them sticking with those tactics.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeChe
● Leeds are winless in their last seven meetings with Chelsea in all competitions (D2 L5), since a 2-0 home win in December 2002.
● Chelsea have won just 11% of their away league games against Leeds (5/46) – of all sides they’ve travelled to at least 15 times, the Blues’ lowest win rate in their league history is at Leeds.
● Chelsea have scored just three goals in their last 10 Premier League away games against Leeds, failing to score on seven occasions in that run (W1 D4 L5). Their only victory in that time was in April 2000 – 1-0 courtesy of a Jon Harley strike.
● Leeds United have conceded 34 home league goals this season, their most in a league season since 2011-12 in the Championship (41). In the top-flight, it’s their third-most home goals conceded in a single campaign, behind 1934-35 (35) and 1959-60 (46).
● Chelsea have dropped 20 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, last dropping more in a single campaign in 2015-16 (21).
● Since Leeds drew 0-0 with Chelsea at Elland Road in March last year, the Whites have kept just three clean sheets in 22 home Premier League matches, at least two fewer than any other ever-present team has kept on home soil in that time. The Whites are on their longest run of games without a top-flight clean sheet within a single season (10) since an 11-game run between August and December 1966.
● Leeds have only lost one of their last 41 home league matches in the month of May (W25 D15), a 3-1 defeat to Spurs back in May 1996. They are unbeaten in their last 19 at Elland Road in the league in May since (W12 D7).
● Chelsea have only conceded two first half goals in their last 14 Premier League matches, both against Arsenal in April. 13 of the last 15 goals they’ve conceded have come in the second half, with 71% of their overall Premier League goals conceded this season coming after half-time (22/31) – their highest ratio in a single campaign.
● Leeds manager Jesse Marsch has lost two of his first four home league games in charge (W1 D1), with Neil Warnock the last Whites manager to lose as many as three of his first five at Elland Road in 2012. Marsch hasn’t lost consecutive home league games with the same club since May/June 2015 with New York Red Bulls in MLS.
● Romelu Lukaku is Chelsea’s top scorer in all competitions this season with 14 goals, with seven of those coming in the Premier League. Lukaku netted a brace against Wolves last time out, last scoring 2+ goals in back-to-back Premier League appearances in February and March 2019 for Man Utd, against Crystal Palace and Southampton.
LEICESTER V NORWICH
7.45pm Leicester host Norwich next and I have to say this is a very tricky game from a betting point of view! In my opinion Norwich have completely switched off at this stage of the season. They are going down and they have been playing an open game since but it just isn’t working. A side like Norwich will just concede goals, and I think we saw this as the weekend with a 4-0 loss at home to West Ham. That was a proper white flag waved result, and I said prior to that fixture that West Ham might have been worth taking on against a better side looking at their xG figures but I didn’t want to support Norwich. Very similar thoughts apply here to be honest, and I have to say that Leicester at 1.45 is definitely a price I want to avoid backing. They just haven’t been playing well enough to justify those odds, although I’m not laying them against Norwich. This is clearly a good chance for Leicester to get back to winning ways, but you could see the result coming against Everton at the weekend. Morale was low after crashing out of Europe and they haven’t been good in the Premier League for a while. They’ve only recorded one win in their last seven in the Premier League, while it’s six games without a win in all competitions.
To drop from challenging for a Top Four spot to 14th is incredibly poor from a Leicester point of view. And sadly for them their level over the last two season probably would have got them Champions League football this season given how poor Manchester United and Spurs have been, and while improved Arsenal are unreliable at times. I feel the best value option here is to look towards the goal markets. I just don’t trust Leicester enough to back them in the handicap markets – although I do expect them to win. Norwich haven’t managed to score for their last three games, and Leicester have been keeping things reasonably tight in their games. The market is expecting goals with over 2.5 goals trading odds on, but I want to go a little higher and back under 3.5 goals at 1.55. I’m keeping stakes small here, but under 3.5 goals allows for 3-0 or 2-1 Leicester win which is a nice position – it’s been a while since Leicester were banging in goals for fun and Norwich just aren’t scoring at the moment. Perhaps a 2-0 grind for Leicester is likely, but a small bet on unders looks the vall here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 3.5 goals at 1.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiNor
● Leicester are unbeaten in all three of their Premier League home games against Norwich (W2 D1), though these games have seen just four goals scored in total (2x 1-0 wins, 1x 1-1 draw).
● Norwich lost the reverse fixture against Leicester 2-1 back in August – only in one of the last seven campaigns in which the sides have met have the Canaries lost both league games against the Foxes (2015-16).
● Leicester are winless in five Premier League games (D2 L3), losing each of the last two. The Foxes haven’t lost three in a row since February 2019, and Claude Puel’s final three games in charge of the club.
● Norwich haven’t won any of their 15 away Premier League matches this season against sides in the division the previous year (D3 L12); their two away wins this season have come at Brentford and Watford, both of whom were promoted alongside the Canaries in 2020-21.
● Leicester have both scored and conceded in a league-high 23 different Premier League games this season, with the Foxes only doing so more in 1994-95 (25) and 2017-18 (24).
● Leicester have conceded a league-high 15 Premier League goals from corners this season. Since 2006-07 (when Opta has full data for goal-type), only two clubs have ever conceded more in a single campaign – Watford in 2016-17 and Brighton in 2017-18 (both 16).
● Coming into the midweek matches, Norwich have conceded a league-high 75 Premier League goals this season. Only in 2004-05 (77) have the Canaries ever shipped more in a single top-flight campaign.
● Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has been involved in 21 goals in his last 14 Premier League appearances against promoted sides, scoring 14 and assisting a further seven. Vardy has registered more than one goal involvement in eight of these 14 games and has only failed to score or assist a goal twice.
● Norwich manager Dean Smith has lost three of his four Premier League meetings with Leicester, though that one win did come at the King Power Stadium (1-0 in October 2020 with Aston Villa).
● All five of Patson Daka’s Premier League goals for Leicester have come at the King Power Stadium, four of which have come in starts. Only Jamie Vardy (6) has netted more often at home for the club in the top-flight in 2021-22.
WATFORD V EVERTON
7.45pm Another big game in the relegation race. A couple of weeks ago I remember going through Everton’s fixture list and noting what a massive game this would be for Everton. I wasn’t expecting them to beat Manchester United and Chelsea before we got here – although they have moved away from the danger zone now with those wins and the win at the weekend over Leicester, they aren’t fully out of trouble yet. They will be keeping an eye on the Leeds v Chelsea game with a little earlier kick off, but whatever happens in that game is almost irrelevant – this is a must win game for Everton. Not many football fans would have expected the wins against United and Chelsea, but when you looked at the fixture list a win for Everton was expected here. They have decent momentum now with only one loss in their last five, and Watford have been playing some terrible football to finish the season. As I said above in the Norwich game, it looks like the white flag has been waved for Watford too. They’ve only six games in a row, and they are conceding plenty of chances too. This game is there for the taking for Everton.
The only question here is, are Everton good enough to win? Sometimes it can be hard to fully access the form of Everton when they are playing the top sides because it’s only natural that they are going to conceded a bigger xG figure than they create. This happened against Chelsea for example, but they were always going to have to grind that game out. The performance was much better against Leicester, and in fairness they kept Manchester United down to an xG of 0.80 but of course United have been so poor. I think on balance Everton have been creating enough to win here, especially when you look at what Watford have been conceding recently. They have nothing to play for and might just play an open game, but most of their problems have come at home. They have only managed seven points from their 17 home games this season which is incredibly poor! Probably one of, if not the worse, home record from the big leagues in Europe. I’m happy to keep stakes reasonably small because obviously Everton have also been poor this season, but this game is there for the taking and they should win. I’d have them shorter than 1.89.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Everton to beat Watford at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WatEve
● Watford won the reverse fixture against Everton 5-2 in October and are looking to pick up consecutive league victories against the Toffees for the very first time.
● Everton have lost three of their last four Premier League away games against Watford, though they did win 3-2 on their last visit to Vicarage Road in February 2020.
● Watford have lost their last 11 home league matches, the longest run of home defeats in top-flight history. In Football League history, the only side to lose more than 11 in a row at home was Rochdale between November 1931 and August 1932 in the Third Division North, a run of 14 home defeats.
● Watford have been relegated from the Premier League before the final day of the season for the third time; on the previous two occasions, they lost their first match after relegation was confirmed (1-3 v Leeds in 1999-00 and 0-1 v Sheffield United in 2006-07).
● Watford have conceded 41 home Premier League goals this season – only three sides have ever shipped more in a single campaign; Wolves in 2011-12 (43), Derby in 2007-08 (43) and Swindon in 1993-94 (45).
● Everton are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since March 2021, while they last won consecutive away league games in May the same year. Indeed, the Toffees’ 2-1 victory at Leicester ended a 15-game winless run on the road.
● Watford have lost each of their last six Premier League games, with the Hornets last having a longer run of consecutive league defeats between December 1972 and February 1973 (9).
● Watford striker Josh King has scored more Premier League goals against Everton than he has vs any other side in the competition (8), including a hat-trick at Goodison Park in the reverse fixture in October.
● Watford’s Samir and Hassane Kamara have ended on the losing side in all seven of their home Premier League appearances so far. No player in Premier League history has lost their first eight home games, with seven the record previously held by David Goodwillie (2011-12, Blackburn), Danny Ward (2009-19, Bolton & Cardiff) and Neeskens Kebano (2018-20, Fulham).
● Everton boss Frank Lampard has won all three of his Premier League meetings with Watford’s Roy Hodgson by an aggregate score of 9-2 – it’s his best 100% win rate as a manager in the top-flight, while only against Jürgen Klopp (8/8) and Mauricio Pochettino (5/5) does Hodgson have a higher 100% loss record.
WOLVES V MANCHESTER CITY
8.15pm We finish the day with the highlight as Wolves host Manchester City. It was an excellent weekend for City after the disappointment of crashing out of the Champions League last week. With Liverpool drawing against Spurs that gave City the chance to go three points clear at the top of the table and they didn’t just walk through that door, they rammed through it with a 5-0 win over Newcastle. Wolves were also involved in a high scoring game at the weekend with a 2-2 draw over Chelsea. I questioned whether or not they were “on the beach” early so to speak at the weekend, but you have to give them credit for fighting back after being 2-0 down. The 97th equaliser is always going to give the team a big morale boost. Despite holding Chelsea to a draw at the weekend, the market is very confident on a City win here. I was expecting them to be heavy favourites, but I wasn’t expecting to see City trade as short as 1.28 here. I know Wolves have been struggling recently, but they are still a reasonably solid side. It’s very difficult to see past the City win here, but from a value point of view I wouldn’t be happy taking the 1.28.
Without much value in the match odds market, we’ll have to look to the side markets here for our best bet. This game is going to more than likely be all about how many goals City can score, and Wolves have usually be able to keep the score line respectable. City scored four goals at home in March 2021 against Wolves, but other than that Wolves have kept City down to three goals over the last seven meetings. Any Other Away Win is too big to lay at 4.6 in my opinion because this City side can turn on the style from anywhere, but I do feel Wolves will make this a pretty cagey and boring affair. Obviously saying you’re going to keep the game tight against a side like City is easier said than done, but I feel a small bet on under 2.5 goals is worth it at 2.3. I can see City winning in the end, but they will have to work harder than the market expects and grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win. I’m happy to keep stakes small however with City in such good form.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolMci
● Wolves lost this exact fixture 3-1 last season – they’ve not lost consecutive home league games against Manchester City since April 1981.
● After losing both league games against Wolves in 2019-20, Man City have won each of their last three against them. They last won four in a row against Wolves between April 1980 and December 1981.
● In 2022, Wolves have alternated between a win and a defeat in all eight of their home Premier League matches – they lost 3-0 at Molineux last time out against Brighton and Hove Albion.
● Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 16 away Premier League games (W13 D3) – it is their longest ever away unbeaten league run in their history, with their 4-0 win at Leeds taking them one ahead of the 15-game run under Joe Royle between December 1998 and September 1999.
● Although Wolves have only recovered four points from losing positions in the Premier League this season (the joint fewest of any team), those four points have all come from being two goals down in matches, winning 3-2 against Aston Villa in October and drawing 2-2 with Chelsea last time out.
● Man City have kept a clean sheet in their last five away Premier League matches, with only three sides ever keeping more than five consecutively in the Premier League: Chelsea (7 in a row, 2008), Manchester United (7, 2008-09) and Liverpool (6, 2014-15).
● Manchester City have won their last four Premier League games while scoring at least three goals each time. Only once have had they had a longer such run, doing so in six consecutive matches between October and November 2011.
● Manchester City have scored 20 goals from set-piece situations in the Premier League this season (excluding penalties), while conceding just one such goal themselves. Their set piece goal difference of +19 is the highest on record in a single Premier League campaign (since 2006-07).
● Wolves winger Chiquinho has assisted three goals in just 69 minutes of Premier League football, all as a substitute. He is only the second player in Premier League history to assist three goals before ever starting a match, along with Hope Akpan for Reading in January 2013.
● Conor Coady has scored four goals from four shots on target in the Premier League this season for Wolves, and five goals from six overall in his Premier League career. He’s the first player to have scored as many as four times and netted every shot on target (excl. penalties) in a Premier League season since Mohamed Diamé in 2014-15 for Hull City (also 4/4).