EURO 2020 MONDAY: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews the games between CROATIA v SPAIN and FRANCE v SWITZERLAND both with recommended BETDAQ 0% COMMISSION bets.



5pm It’s day three of the Last 16 at Euro 2020 and what a fascinating day we have in store today! We have the tournament favourites France in action later, and although Spain only won once in the Group stages they have been playing some very impressive football. It promises to be an excellent day, and all matches are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. I have to say Croatia v Spain is a fascinating match-up. Both sides went into their final game under pressure with Croatia needing a win and Spain only drawing their first two games. They both won in style, but you have to say that Spain are playing far better football than Croatia and I can’t see past them winning here. They are a Max Bet for me at 1.67. I expected them to be closer to 1.5. I know Croatia have been a great side, but they clearly look in decline at the moment. They rely so much on Luka Modric too.

Casual football fans might say Spain only drew with Sweden and Poland, but if you look at the underlining numbers here there is only one winner. Spain created an xG of 2.89 against Sweden, 3.18 against Poland and 3.63 against Slovakia. Croatia are a step up from those sides, but this Spanish side is performing. If only Morata could start scoring! Compare those figures to Croatia’s – they created 0.54 against England, 1.07 against Czech Republic and 1.04 against Scotland. I know they beat Scotland comfortably in the end, but they have been consistently giving away chances and not creating much. The 1.67 on Spain is far too big in my opinion as this Croatia side look average at the moment. I know Modric are pull it out of the fire but not against this Spanish midfield in my opinion – Spain are a very confident bet and I can only see one way traffic here.

The Ultra Says:
Five points win Spain to beat Croatia at 1.67 with BETDAQ Exchange..

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8pm France go into the Last 16 with questions to answer having only won once in the Group stages. They had a tough Group with Germany and Portugal, but they weren’t able to beat Hungary – although in fairness they dominated the game so it was just one of those days that they didn’t put the ball in the net. They conceded an xG of 2.36 against Portugal which has to be a worry going forward; but it will be very interesting to see what kind of tactics they employ going forward. The jury is definitely out on Switzerland as they were played off the park against Italy, but they should have won against Wales and everyone beat Turkey in that Group. They look like a solid side, but they shouldn’t be able to deal with this French side who look extremely strong in every position. The 1.58 looks very fair on France however, and I’m not interesting in backing them at that price. I expect them to win, but I can’t make an argument for them to be much shorter, so there’s little value on offer in my view.

The bet I like is under 2.5 goals at 1.75. Although we saw a 2-2 between France and Portugal, and indeed the game was quite open, in general France have been keeping games quite tight. Switzerland will likely employ pretty negative tactics here – they only managed an xG of 0.25 against Italy and perhaps that’s a clear sign of the level they are at against the top sides. But I expect Switzerland to try and defend, France to have a lot of the ball and try to break them down for most of the game. France have been creating some good chances, but they looked very happy to just control the game when they had the lead against Germany. Of course I am worried about the quality they have in attack, but overall I expect a pretty cagey game here and unders looks the value call. I’m happy to keep stakes reasonably small.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ Exchange..

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