FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Friday’s games between AUGSBURG v STUTTGART and ESPANYOL v CADIZ both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AUGSBURG V STUTTGART
7.30pm Friday night football from Europe comes from the Bundesliga and La Liga on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week, and we have an absolutely massive night in the relegation battle in both leagues! We kick off the evening in the Bundesliga as Augsburg host Stuttgart, and this is basically a must win game for Stuttgart. They aren’t sitting in the relegation zone at the moment, they are in the relegation playoff spot but there is a gap forming to Augsburg and Bochum just above them, and if they want to avoid staying in the bottom three; whether that’s relegation or relegation playoff, they need to close the gap. Augsburg have a five points advantage over Stuttgart so they do have a little cushion, and a win here would likely mean they are safe heading into the final weeks of the season. As you would expect with both sides towards the bottom of the table, neither have been playing good football this season. Despite the difference in points, Stuttgart have actually been the “better” side looking at the under-lining numbers. They have created and conceded the same amount of chances at an xG of 1.5. Whereas Augsburg have been conceding an average xG of 1.9 and only creating 1.2 – figures you usually see from sides in a relegation battle in Europe’s major leagues.
Stuttgart come into this game off the back of two good results as well. They managed a 3-3 draw with Dortmund last weekend, and prior to that recorded a huge 3-2 win away from home against Bochum to close the gap. They now need to beat Augsburg, and that would be a massive few weeks for them beating the only two sides they can catch above them. They have only managed eight points away from home this season which is concerning, however they have finished their last two games with xG figures of 2.84 and 2.53 which is impressive. Augsburg have had a reasonably difficult fixture list in their last five games having to play Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig, however in between they have conceded an xG figure of 2.18 at home to Schalke who sit in the bottom two and an xG of 4.02 away to Wolfsburg. Alarming figures, and I feel this fixture falls at a good time for Stuttgart. The market has them as the favourites, but I still feel there is good value in supporting them at 2.28. Their under-lining numbers are better over the course of the season, and they come into the game in better form too. A win here could set them up to finally get out of the bottom three.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Stuttgart to beat Augsburg at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AugStu
ESPANYOL V CADIZ
8pm We move over to La Liga to finish Friday night with another huge relegation battle at Espanyol host Cadiz. This is an absolutely vital game for both sides – Espanyol start the weekend sitting in the bottom three, but they are only four points behind Cadiz sitting in 16th. A win here would see them jump over Almeria who play Athletic Bilbao on Saturday and they also have a fixture coming up away to Real Madrid so for Espanyol to get over them could be a massive boost. Cadiz will be thinking a win here would push them further away from the bottom three and deal a huge blow to one of the sides chasing them too. The stakes couldn’t be higher really. Cadiz lost 2-0 to Real Madrid last weekend, they were absolutely battered because they conceded an xG of 5.14 but there’s no shame in losing to Real Madrid – it won’t be a deciding factor in their season. Prior to that game they had been in good form, they beat Real Betis and they were picking up a lot of draws too – their xG figures before the Real Madrid game were 2.79, 1.25, 1.29 and 1.83. Not very impressive figures, but they are creating enough to win games and get results at the moment. Unfortunately for Espanyol, they have been on a long losing run just at the wrong time. They come into this game off the back of six losses in La Liga when the sides around them have been collecting points – that’s given the likes of Getafe, Cadiz and Almeria a little cushion and you could say this is a must win game for Espanyol with home advantage.
Espanyol come into the game as the favourites. They are trading 2.12 at the time of writing, with Cadiz 4.0 and the draw is 3.35. I have to say I was surprised to see Espanyol trading as short as 2.12 – that price definitely feels too short. It’s not like home advantage has been a huge factor for Espanyol this season. They have only managed 13 points from 14 home games this season, which is the worst return apart from Elche who have been nailed to the bottom of La Liga all season. Cadiz actually have the same amount of points away from home, and Espanyol have managed more points away from home compared to at home this season! Espanyol haven’t been unlucky in their recent games – you could say they deserved a draw against Real Valladolid, but they haven’t finished any of their six losses with a higher xG figure than their opposition. I think the Espanyol lay jumps off the page from a value point of view here – Cadiz have been playing the better football, and I fully expect a closer game than 2.12 suggests.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Espanyol to beat Cadiz at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EspCad