FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews DORTMUND v FREIBURG and CADIZ v REAL BETIS both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
DORTMUND V FREIBURG
7.30pm Friday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from the Bundesliga and La Liga this week – our usual one fixture from each league and we have two very interesting markets too. We kick off the action in the Bundesliga as Dortmund host Freiburg. Dortmund have looked a different side since the winter break, and Sancho has been in superb form since coming back on loan from Manchester United. Dortmund were held to a 0-0 draw away to Heidenheim last week though, and RB Leipzig won to close the gap in the top four race. That being said, Dortmund are still in a superb position with a one point advantage considering they were six points behind RB Leipzig heading into the winter break! Dortmund will be expected to win here with home advantage, and they come into the game as the odds on favourites. The home win is trading 1.58 with Freiburg 5.9 and the draw is 4.8 at the time of writing. Freiburg have definitely taken a step backwards this season after finishing up in fifth place last season – they are marginally conceding more than they are creating on xG figures this season which is basically mid-table form.
Freiburg are still in the mix for the European spots, but their best place is going to be sixth I think. I can’t see them catching RB Leipzig or Dortmund. Dortmund have been playing a very open game this season; their average xG conceded is 1.5 which is pretty poor for a top side. There has been a major difference in their home and away performance level this season though; at home they are creating more with an average xG created of 1.83 while away from home they are conceding more than they are creating. They are obviously a lot more comfortable at home this season. The same can be said about Freiburg, because their average xG created away from home is only 1.10 which is very poor. They have definitely struggled this season away; only three Bundesliga wins all season. The 1.58 on Dortmund is tempting, but this game screams goals given how open the two sides have been this season. Over 2.5 goals is trading only one tick lower than the Dortmund win at 1.57, and I feel this is a much better option. I know Freiburg have struggled to create chances away from home but Dortmund have been conceding plenty this season – I would be very surprised if we didn’t have an end-to-end game here.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/DorFrb
CADIZ V REAL BETIS
8pm We move to La Liga next for an intriguing market as Cadiz host Real Betis. It’s a sign of how poor Real Betis been lately that we have an exceptionally open betting heat here despite Cadiz sitting in the relegation zone. When Sevilla looked certain to drop out of the top four in Spain early last season, Real Betis looked the natural side to step in having finished fifth and won the Copa del Rey, but they have gone backwards since. They come into the game as the favourites, but there really isn’t much between the sides. Real Betis are 2.8 with Cadiz 2.94 and the draw is 3.25 at the time of writing. I have to say I was a little surprised to see Real Betis trading this big when I clicked into the market; even allowing for them being poor this season. The Cadiz under-lining numbers are exceptionally poor. Their average xG created is only 0.86 which is the worst attacking figure in La Liga this season. Their average xG conceded of 1.56 puts them in the bottom three at the back too; it’s no surprise that they sit in the relegation zone and although they deserve credit for grinding out a few results this season, with performance levels like that it would be a surprise if they stayed up this season.
They start the weekend three points off Mallorca in 17th however, so they aren’t too far away. Real Betis clearly have better figures than that, however they are marginally conceding more chances than they are creating. Their games in La Liga this season have been the most “boring” of all however; they are keeping things as tight as possible. They are only scoring over one goal on average and conceding the same. Their away performance level is the major concern here, and that’s the reason why we have such an open market. Betis have been conceding a lot of chances away from home this season; their average xG conceded away is a whopping 1.68. The question here is though, will Cadiz be good enough to take advantage? I know there are concerns with Betis, but I still feel that the 2.8 is good value to beat one of the worst sides in La Liga. Obviously another option is the Cadiz lay which isn’t a bad position, but I’m happy with a small bet on Betis at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Real Betis to beat Cadiz at 2.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CadBet