FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews CADIZ v GRANADA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

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8pm After what has felt like a long International break, domestic football returns on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with La Liga action on Friday night! It might not be the most glamorous European fixture, but with the Euro 2024 playoffs over the last week it has been a boring International break. You forget how meaningless the friendlies feel and although most football fans moan about International breaks, at least the Nations League has made them competitive for the most part. We don’t have another International break now until Euro 2024 starts so now we get to the business end of the domestic season!

We re-start the domestic action with Cadiz hosting Granada; while this will be a low quality game of football as both of them sit in the relegation zone it is clearly a huge fixture for both clubs. I would argue that the writing is already on the wall for Granada – they’ve only managed 14 points from their 28 games and they are a whopping 13 points away from Celta Vigo in 17th. For Cadiz, this is an absolutely must win game if they are going to have any chance of staying up. They are on 22 points, five points behind Celta Vigo and if they are going to get back into the mix then they have to win home games against the sides around them.

I actually feel regardless of the result here that Cadiz will go down. You have Sevilla and Celta Vigo as the two clubs above them, and they are both playing much better football compared to Cadiz. Looking at the under-lining numbers, Cadiz have actually done well to get the amount of points they have at the moment. Their average xG created is only 0.90 which is the worst attacking figure in La Liga, and they’ve been very poor at the back too. Their average xG conceded is 1.52 which is the fourth worst defensive figure. Couple them together and you have the worst performing side in La Liga. It’s not a surprise they sit in the relegation zone, nor is it a surprise to see Granada there with them – when you put their figures together they are the third worst side.

The La Liga relegation battle this season has gone to form. The three worst performing sides take up the three bottom spots. Granada have a marginally higher average xG conceded compared to Cadiz, and we might see plenty of mistakes at the back here. Although both sides are clearly limited going forward, so it’s a question of are they good enough to take advantage. As you would expect with home advantage, Cadiz come into the game as the favourites at 2.18 with Granada 3.9 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing.

Home advantage could easily be the deciding factor here. You wouldn’t want to be lumping on a side with Cadiz’ figures at 2.18 but Granada have only managed two points away from home this season which is the worst record in La Liga. Even Almeria have managed more! Obviously both sides are playing to a poor level, but Cadiz definitely concede less chances at home – their average xG conceded here is only 1.25. I’m keep stakes limited, but it’s hard to see past a Cadiz win given how poor Granada have been on the road this season.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Cadiz to beat Granada at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->

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