FRIDAY BUNDESLIGA: The Ultra previews Friday’s match between WOLFSBURG v MAINZ including a recommended BETDAQ bet.

7.30pm We have a relatively quiet start to the weekend in Europe this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with just one fixture from the Bundesliga. Wolfsburg host Mainz in a mid-to-low table clash with a very open market. Much has been made about the dramatic drop in form from Wolfsburg – they come into this game sitting in 13th position, just six points away from the relegation playoff spot which is remarkable considering they were a top four side last season.

Wolfsburg’s main issues have come at the back – they have conceded over 50 goals already this season. Their xG for chances conceded is 1.6, while their actual goals works out at 1.7 per game – very poor stats and you won’t win many games while conceding close to two goals per game! Although their main issues have come at the back, they haven’t been good going forward either. They are averaging just 1.1 goals per game this season, and although their xG is a little higher at 1.4 when you put everything together it’s just not looking good for Wolfsburg.

It’s no surprise that they currently sit where they do in the table. Although they are “only” six points away from the relegation playoff spot, I wouldn’t really class them as being in the relegation battle. However, a run of a few losses at this stage of the season could see them come under a little pressure. Mainz will be hoping to start that pressure, and they need a confidence boost themselves given their recent from. Earlier in the season Mainz were challenging for the European spots – I know that would have been a massive ask, but they have dropped down to mid-table now as they sit in 9th.

Mainz come into this game off the back of four games without a win – they haven’t had a very difficult fixture list but perhaps the telling stat is that three of those games came away from home. It has been like night and day the difference between Mainz home and away this season. Just look at the home and away tables – Mainz sit in the top four at home, but the relegation places away. They’ve only managed eight points from 15 away games this season. Only Greuther Furth have a worse record, and we all know that they haven’t been anywhere close to Bundesliga standard this season.

This is a tricky fixture from a betting point of view – it has been profitable to be against Mainz away from home this season and against Wolfsburg in general. It’s easy to see why we have such an open market then! I feel the best play here is to stay away from the match odds market and focus on the goals market – over 2.5 goals is trading 2.02 and I’m surprised to see it trading slightly odds against given how open both sides play. Wolfsburg games have been carnage this season because they have been so bad at the back, and Mainz aren’t shy either – they had a 3-2 with Koln a couple of weeks ago. Both sides average close to three goals per game that they are involved in this season, and we can see overs collect again here.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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