MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews GRANADA v ATLETICO MADRID with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

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8pm La Liga is the focus for Monday night football from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as Granada host Atletico Madrid. We have two sides from opposite ends of the table here with Granada sitting in the relegation zone and Atletico Madrid pushing for a top four spot. Atletico Madrid have work to do in that regard; they started this matchday sitting in fifth three points off the top four. Girona had an eleven point advantage over them so it’s unlikely they’ll catch them. Obviously Real Madrid and Barcelona are going nowhere so Atletico will have to chase down Athletic Bilbao who sat three points above them.

Given how poor Granada have been this season, Atletico will be fully expected to win here. They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.75 with Granada 4.9 and the draw is 3.95 at the time of writing. I was actually surprised to see Atletico trading as high as 1.75 when I clicked into the market. I know they have had issues away from home this season, but this Granada side are there for the taking. There aren’t many positives when you look at the under-lining numbers for the home side.

Granada’s average xG created this season is only 1.09 which is the fourth worst attacking figure in La Liga. They’ve been really struggling at the back, and have the fourth worst defensive figure too. They’ve actually been conceding more goals than they should as well – they are conceding over two goals per game this season. When you are conceding two goals a game and only creating an average of one, you have issues! Atletico Madrid have been playing an open game this season, but they better than Granada in every area. I feel the 1.75 is too big to ignore here.

My main worry with Atletico here is their away form. It’s the only reason why I’m not having a Max Bet at 1.75 – at the moment they are conceding more chances than they are creating away from home. Their average xG conceded of 1.47 away from home is too big for a club their size. However, they meet a very average side going forward here so I feel they can get away with it. That performance level does make my reduce my stakes on Atletico though; all their dropped points bar one game have come away from home this season. All things considered, the 1.75 is too big to ignore but with the worries three points feels the right stake.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win Atletico Madrid to beat Granada at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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