CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL: The Ultra previews DORTMUND v REAL MADRID with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

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8pm We have a fantastic Champions League Final this season as Dortmund take on Real Madrid at Wembley on Saturday night. We had two very dramatic and entertaining Semi-Finals, and hopefully we have a very entertaining Final too! Carlo Ancelotti’s men come into the Final as the odds on favourites on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE – Real Madrid are trading 1.69 with Dortmund 5.5 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. While this is the pinnacle of club football, it’s fair to say that most football fans expect a Real Madrid win here – they take all the pressure into the Final and Dortmund will definitely enjoy the underdog position.

Dortmund have been on quite the journey to get here. We all watched them throwing away the Bundesliga title on the final day last season, and to some extent being in the Champions League Final now is all the sweeter for their manager who was moved to tears by the Yellow Wall with their support after the final day last season. They started this season at a huge price to be here, while for Real Madrid they have always been one of the favourites. After the Quarter-Final draw that produced Manchester City v Real Madrid, it always felt like the winner would come from that tie. You’d definitely have to say that Dortmund have some from the weaker side of the draw, but they have got the job done in tough situations.

They would have went into the Atletico Madrid game around 50/50 to progress but they were definitely underdogs heading into the second leg. Most football fans expected PSG to progress from the Semi-Final but Dortmund did a number of them twice. If you look at the under-lining numbers, you’d have to say that Dortmund were a little lucky – they conceded an xG of 2.6 away in Paris but they did incredibly well to grind out a 1-0 win. Dortmund haven’t been the most consistent side in the Bundesliga this season, but they have been able to grind out results under pressure in the Champions League. Their defensive figures are the major worry coming into this game, and that’s an area that Real Madrid will target.


Dortmund missed out on a top four spot in the Bundesliga this season, but thanks to the new UEFA rule the top five get into the Champions League next season and they finished fifth. Their average xG created was 1.66 which was the fifth best attacking figure in the Bundesliga and their average xG conceded was quite high at 1.46 – they were very poor at the back away from home. Real Madrid ran away with the La Liga title this season, and you could hardly fault them. They finished La Liga with the best attacking figure with an average xG created of 1.98 and the second best defensive figure (only by 0.01) with an average xG conceded of just 1.15. If this game was played on paper, Real Madrid would win no question.

Of course, the beauty of football is we can sometimes expect the unexpected. However, there are obvious issues for Dortmund here. I feel like they benefitted immensely from Atletico Madrid struggling away from home, and at the time I wondered in my preview of that second leg was a one goal lead even enough. Atletico dropped points 14 times in La Liga this season, and 11 of those were away from home. The under-lining numbers aren’t pretty in the PSG game from a Dortmund point of view either. If they conceded an xG of 2.6 against Real Madrid they would pay a heavy price, especially with Jude Bellingham in such good form this season.


It’s going to be a tense night in London, it always is for a Champions League Final, however the 1.69 looks too big on Real Madrid in my opinion. I would have them a lot closer to 1.6, possibly even 1.59. Another option is Over 2.5 goals at four ticks bigger than the Real Madrid price at 1.73. Both sides love to play an attacking brand of football, and I feel if we get an early goal then both sides will very likely fight fire-with-fire and we’ll get a very open game. I couldn’t put anyone off the Overs bet at the odds, but I feel we’re getting cracking value on the Real Madrid win at 1.69. It’s worth a five star NAP in my opinion.

The Ultra Says:
Five points win Real Madrid to beat Dortmund at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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