THURSDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ATLETICO MADRID v RAYO VALLECANO with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATLETICO MADRID V RAYO VALLECANO
8.30pm The midweek La Liga action continues on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as Atletico Madrid host Rayo Vallecano on Thursday night. We have had an immense amount of drama in the La Liga title race recently, but unfortunately for Atletico Madrid they’ve drifted away. Since the middle of January they’ve been on the back foot – if you go back to mid-January, they’ve only actually record five wins from 13 La Liga games. It’s unfortune for Atletico Madrid, but now it feels like they just have to go through the motions to finish out their season.
Of course, having a manager like Diego Simeone it’s unlikely that Atletico will just “go through the motions” but they do come into the game off the back of a disappointing 1-0 loss away to Las Palmas who have been in the relegation battle. Obviously it was a late goal for Las Palmas, but Atletico put in a poor performance – they finished the game with an xG under 1.0. The reality for Atletico this season is that they just haven’t created enough good quality chances – they actually have an attacking figure marginally under Rayo Vallecano.
Rayo Vallecano have an average xG created of 1.46 with Atletico just 0.01 behind them on 1.45. There is a bigger difference between the sides at the back; Atletico have an average xG conceded of 1.27 with Rayo Vallecano higher at 1.41. Both sides have been over-performing at the back this season – Atletico are conceding less than a goal a game and they’ve really grinded out results in classic Atletico fashion really. The home side come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.63 with Rayo Vallecano 6.8 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing.
I have to say I wouldn’t be rushing to back Atletico at 1.63 here. That being said, Rayo Vallecano have been on a very poor run recently – one win from their last nine La Liga games hardly inspires confidence in an Atletico lay. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here to be honest – it’s hard to have confidence in either side here; on balance I feel the 1.63 is a little short on Atletico but this Rayo Vallecano run at the moment is a major worry there, especially away from home. Neither side are firing at the moment, and with them both conceding so few goals this season I’m happy with a small bet on Under 2.5 goals at 1.84.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AtlRva
