THURSDAY EUROPA LEAGUE: The Ultra previews MANCHESTER UNITED v REAL SOCIEDAD and TOTTENHAM v AZ ALKMAAR both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER UNITED V REAL SOCIEDAD
8pm It’s a massive Thursday night from the Europa League on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! Manchester United and Spurs both come into the second legs under pressure, and after a terrible season domestic in the Premier League, exiting the Europa League now at the Last 16 stage would be a hammer blow. We kick off the night at Old Trafford with Manchester United hosting Real Sociedad. This is a fascinating situation – while on paper a 1-1 draw away from home in a first leg is a good position for any side coming into a second leg with home advantage, United have been very poor at home under Ruben Amorim this season. United come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.92 with Real Sociedad 5.0 and the draw is 3.45 at the time of writing. I took a chance on United in the first leg at decent odds, purely because Real Sociedad have been very average this season and United have been better away from home this season. It’s really hard to know what type of performance to expect from United these days – this squad has chucked the towel in plenty of times in recent years, but they do tend to turn up for the big games.
Another example of that was the draw at the weekend against Arsenal. Now with all eyes on in the Last 16 of Europe; you’d have to expect a decent effort from United. I would expect their effort level to rise, which is often extremely lacking. With that being said, the 1.92 on United still feels a little short here given how poor they have been at home this season. I would lean towards a United lay in the match odds market; but it is hard to support Real Sociedad looking at their under-lining numbers. They’ve dropped down to mid-table this season in La Liga, and another loss at the weekend leaves them in a tough spot to get European football next season. Their average xG created is only 1.23 which is a mid-table figure in La Liga, and they are conceding more chances than they are creating. Sociedad have tried to keep their games exceptionally tight this season, and I can’t see an open game here really. I know United make plenty of mistakes at the back, but Amorim is improving them in this regard. I feel we’ll see a pretty tight game here with Sociedad being quite negative. I wouldn’t actually be surprised to see a 0-0 here to be honest, but Under 2.5 goals is an appealing bet at 1.66 to start the night.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELMuRe
TOTTENHAM V AZ ALKMAAR
8pm Next we move over to London as Spurs host AZ Alkmaar. Spurs have work to do here after losing the first leg 1-0, but now they have home advantage they have every chance to come back. The market is confident on the home win; Spurs are trading 1.53 with AZ Alkmaar 6.8 and the draw is 4.8 at the time of writing. Obviously on paper, there is a gulf in class between the sides here but Spurs have been bitterly disappointing this season. Spurs went into the first leg as the favourites, but as I said in my preview of that game a draw wouldn’t have been a bad result – AZ were exceptionally strong at home in the Group stage but it’s been a different story away from home. Away from home, AZ didn’t manage a win – the sides actually met here back in October with Spurs grinding out a 1-0 win. We landed a Spurs lay at 2.12 in the first leg, and although the 1.53 feels a little short coming into this game, I wouldn’t be thinking of laying Spurs here based on the AZ away form – that really doesn’t inspire confidence coming into this clash.
Additionally, you’d have to expect AZ to approach this game very cagey and have quite negative tactics given they have a lead to defend. It’ll be interesting to see how much Spurs can create to break them down – Spurs had a lot of the ball in the first leg but they really didn’t create much. 62% possession and an xG under 1.0 just isn’t good enough. That being said, AZ have been quite average in the Eredivisie and are sitting in seventh at the moment after a loss at the weekend. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here, even if I feel the 1.53 is a little short on Spurs. It was interesting to see Over 2.5 goals as the favourite at 1.69 in the goals market – I know Spurs have made plenty of mistakes at the back this season but I wasn’t expecting to see Overs trading that short when I clicked into the market. I can see AZ putting XI men behind the ball here, and it’ll be up to Spurs to make things happen. They haven’t exactly got the job done this season either, and I’m happy with a position on Under 2.5 goals at 2.36. I’m going to keep stakes low here, but I’d expect a more cagey game than the market is suggesting.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.36 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELToAz
