THURSDAY LA LIGA: The Ultra previews MALLORCA v VALENCIA and OSASUNA v ATHLETIC BILBAO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.


6.30pm It’s been a busy week of action around Europe, and we continue with La Liga fixtures on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Thursday evening. La Liga have more fixtures left than most other elite leagues around Europe, but they’ve caught up with this midweek fixture list but they will still finish a week later than the Premier League for example. We start the evening with Mallorca hosting Valencia, and we have two sides here who have been hanging around the relegation battle this season. They are heading into the final games sitting in mid-table and they aren’t under pressure. Valencia were actually in a bit of trouble at one stage, but they have finished strongly with four wins from their last six games. They were only beaten once in that run, away to Cadiz who are also involved in the relegation battle. It’s fair to say their win last weekend over Real Madrid was a complete bonus, they probably benefitted from Real Madrid still dealing with the hangover of crashing out of the Champions League. Nevertheless, they head into this game in a good place, but they probably need another result from their final three games.

We have two very open markets tonight. This game is marginally more open, but there’s only ten ticks or so between the difference in the two fixtures. Valencia come into this game as the favourites – they are 2.5 at the time of writing with Mallorca 3.6 and the draw is 3.05. Valencia have won two of their recent away games against Elche and Celta Vigo, however they found themselves in the bottom three because of their away form. They have only managed 12 points from their 17 away games this season, and prior to recently that was only six points from 15 games! I respect the fact that they have finally started the play well when the pressure of avoiding relegation was really on, and that shows the quality that they have in their squad. However, Mallorca are a very strong side with home advantage and I’m not sure I would have Valencia as short as 2.5 here. I would have the side priced a lot closer together, and Valencia appeal as a value lay – I just expect the game to be closer than the odds suggest. Valencia are in good form though, so I won’t go crazy with the stakes.

The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Valencia to beat Mallorca at 2.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->

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8.30pm Next we have another interesting market as Osasuna host Athletic Bilbao. We have another very open betting heat here – Athletic Bilbao are the favourites at 2.4 with Osasuna 3.35 and the draw is 3.4 at the time of writing. Osasuna have to pick themselves up after losing the Copa del Rey Final to Real Madrid and finish the season the best they can. They can still catch Athletic Bilbao sitting in seventh with a win here and other results going their way so they have a lot to play for – European football would be a huge success for them. Athletic Bilbao are also still pushing for a European spot, and they are in a battle for that seventh spot with Girona, Sevilla and Osasuna. Girona drew with Celta Vigo on Tuesday night, so Athletic Bilbao still had a one point advantage after that result, plus this game in hand. Sevilla are two points behind them and Osasuna three points behind. It’s very open – Sevilla also have a Europa League Final to look forward to against Roma. Sevilla have actually finished the season very strongly after sitting in the relegation zone for so long. You’d have to say with home advantage, this is a must win game for Osasuna if they are going to have any chance of getting that seventh spot.

Osasuna have been solid at home all season, and they’ve only lost recently to the top clubs. They lost to Atletico Madrid, Barcelona and Real Sociedad – all sides sitting in the top four. Athletic Bilbao should have a European spot wrapped up but they have dropped a lot of points recently – they finally broke a four game run without a win by beating Celta Vigo last weekend. That was a tight affair without many clear cut chances – prior to that they were a little unlucky to lose against Villarreal and Real Betis, but they are conceding chances. Athletic Bilbao are clearly playing the better football overall this season – their average xG created is 1.7 and they are conceding an average of 1.1. Osasuna are creating less and conceding more – but they do keep their games very tight. With home advantage here I feel they can grind out a result, and the draw offers some value at 3.4 in my opinion. Bilbao don’t come into this game in great form, and I can see a very close game here.

The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->

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