TUESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews ARSENAL v BAYERN MUNICH and REAL MADRID v MANCHESTER CITY both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V BAYERN MUNICH
8pm We kick off the Champions League Quarter-Finals on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE on Tuesday night, and we have four blockbuster ties to enjoy. Every single one is a game to get excited about, but the two fixtures on Tuesday night are going to take all the headlines. One again, it’s such a shame that one fixture can’t start at 5.45pm and another at 8pm, but here we are. We kick off the Quarter-Finals with Arsenal hosting Bayern Munich – this is a fixture that Arsenal fans will have nightmares about but so much has changed since the sides last met in 2017 at the Last 16 stage. Bayern won both legs 5-1 resulting in an embarrassing 10-2 defeat on aggregate. Arsenal are a reformed side under Arteta now while Bayern have been really struggling under Thomas Tuchel; he’s leaving at the end of the season after their reign at the top of the Bundesliga is over with the arrival of Bayer Leverkusen this season! It’s a sign of the times that Arsenal come into the game as the odds on favourites – they are trading 1.76 with Bayern Munich 4.8 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. Bayern are now a whopping 16 points behind Bayer Leverkusen now in the Bundesliga, and they lost again at the weekend away to Heidenheim – morale must be at an all-time low, but all their focus must be on the Champions League now; it’s all they’ve got after all.
When you look at the Bayern xG figures, it’s hard to believe where they are. Their average xG created is 2.23 and their average xG conceded is 1.11. Very impressive figures all around to be honest; but they are conceding more goals than they should and they have been sloppy at the back. That’s definitely an area that Arsenal can target. Arsenal have an average xG created of 1.84 and their average conceded figure is only 0.90 – that’s the best defensive figure in the Premier League. You’d have to say that on paper, this is a superb chance for Arsenal – they tick all the boxes and Bayern are having a poor season. With that being said, I still feel that the 1.76 feels a little short here. I fully accept that Bayern have had a host of issues this season – as I said above though, this is their full focus now. The title has been long gone in the Bundesliga. I am worried about any dressing room issues because obviously there has to be something going on, and I’m going to keep stakes reasonably limited but I still feel the Arsenal lay is the value play. I just expect a closer game than the odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Bayern Munich at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsBay
REAL MADRID V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm Next we have the highlight fixture of the Quarter-Finals as Real Madrid and Manchester City clash. It almost feels like tradition at this stage. Every other club would have been absolutely delighted to see these two drawn against each other; they were the top two in the betting heading into the Quarter-Final draw but that’s obviously changed now. Man City had the upper hand last season, but this is obviously their strongest test. Real Madrid have been exceptional this season, led by the brilliant Jude Bellingham. As things stand they have an eight point lead in La Liga and they aren’t going to lose that advantage. You get the feeling that if Real Madrid are going to have a good chance of getting through they need to win here – Pep Guardiola will be viewing this fixture as a case of “get back to Manchester will little damage done” – City would take a draw without kicking a ball. City won 4-0 with home advantage last season, but who could forget the thrilling 4-3 win for City and then Real Madrid winning 3-1 back in Spain. Real need to take something to Manchester – maybe even a one goal lead might not be enough. We have an exceptionally open betting heat; Manchester City are the favourites at 2.5 with Real Madrid 3.05 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing.
We generally see lots of drama and goals between these two. Real Madrid have an average xG created of 1.98 which is the best attacking figure in La Liga, while Man City have the joint-best attacking figure in the Premier League along with Liverpool at 2.19. While both sides have a huge amount of talent going forward, they are both also very solid at the back. They usually go toe-to-toe when they meet however; Over 2.5 goals has landed in five of the last six meetings – but the last time Real had home advantage we saw a 1-1 draw. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.79 and that looks good value. The only negative is that City will be happy with a draw as I mentioned above; a 0-0 or 1-1 would be ideal for City heading into the second leg but at the same time we rarely we City play in a negative fashion. Given the situation, it’s shrewd to not go crazy with stakes here but everything about the two sides screams goals. An early goal could see a crazy end-to-end game and another 4-3, but we should have plenty of chances here and I like Overs at 1.79.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaMnc
