BUNDESLIGA WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews MAINZ v DORTMUND and WERDER BREMEN v UNION BERLIN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.


5.30pm The midweek action from Europe continues on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with two games from the Bundesliga on Wednesday! It’s great to have the Bundesliga back, and there’s plenty of talking points on Wednesday evening. We start the action with Mainz hosting Dortmund, and it’s fair to say that Dortmund won’t be pleased with their performance this season. After the weekend round of fixtures they sat in sixth place, and while there really isn’t much between second place down to sixth, Dortmund losing six games already this season is quite a poor return. It was always obvious they would struggle after losing the goals from Erling Haaland this season, but I didn’t see them having to battle for a top four spot. In the end, I would expect them to come through but they need to start picking up points. When you look at the Dortmund under-lining numbers you wouldn’t be too concerned about their performance level, but it’s clear that they are conceding too many sloppy goals. Their actual figure is an average of 1.5 per game which is very high for a top side, and their xG isn’t far away at 1.3. They clearly have a lot of talent going forward though, averaging an xG of very close to 2.0 per game, so in that sense you can’t say their games aren’t entertaining!

They return to action with a cracking game too, a 4-3 win over Augsburg at the weekend which was a ding dong battle in an end-to-end game. Within three minutes the score line went 3-2, 3-3 and then 4-3! That’s classic Dortmund though – Augsburg are in a relegation battle and Dortmund are playing such an open game they concede three goals to Augsburg. Mainz are your classic mid-table Bundesliga side, but they did manage to finish up in eighth last season which was a good performance from them – usually they hang around 12th. Mainz built their success last season on being rock solid at top. Their home and away form was remarkably different – they finished in the top four at home, but would have got relegated on the away table – what a difference! You can understand why we have an open market here from that point of view. However, this season they haven’t been as good at home. They’ve only managed seven points which puts them in the bottom three on the home form table. Dortmund haven’t been reliable at all this season so I’m going to limit stakes, but the 2.4 looks a nice value bet here in my opinion. They are creating enough to out-score Mainz.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Dortmund to beat Mainz at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MaiDor

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7.30pm We have four Bundesliga games kicking off at 7-30pm, but Werder Bremen hosting Union Berlin looks the most interesting in my opinion. Union Berlin made a great start to the season, and actually topped the table for a while when Bayern dropped a few points. The World Cup came at a good time for them because they were dropping down the table – they lost four of their five games before the World Cup, including getting hammered 5-0 by Bayer Leverkusen and 4-1 by Freiburg. They returned to action with a smooth 3-1 win over Hoffenheim and actually played very well too – you’d have to go into this game a little worried because those two heavy defeats came away from home. Union Berlin have definitely been better at home this season – after the weekend they played eight games at home and away, and got double the amount of points at home. It’s easy to understand why we have such an open market here with plenty of punters happy to take on Union Berlin away from home, but they still come into the game as the favourites. They are trading 2.6 at the time of writing, with Werder Bremen 3.05 and the draw 3.3. In terms of goals scored, Union have definitely over-performed this season. Their actual figure is an average of 1.7 per game, but their average xG is only 1.1. Usually, you don’t see a side sitting in the top four with attacking figures like that in a major league in Europe.

Eventually, Union will stop scoring from crazy angles with low xG figures and then they will struggle to pick up points. They would actually be my favourite to drop out of the top four as the season goes on looking at their under-lining numbers – despite a very strong season last time when they finished fifth. Werder Bremen will be delighted to be sitting in mid-table after coming up from Bundesliga 2, and their average xG figure going forward is actually higher than Union Berlin! Their problem has been at the back though as they have been conceding chances for fun – their average xG conceded this season is 1.8 which is high. It’s clear that their games have been entertaining though, and I think we’ll see another entertaining game here. Union games have had plenty of action as well, and I was very surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as high as 2.17 when I clicked into the market. I really expected to see it trading odds on, so I’m happy to have a Max Bet at the odds. Betting is all about getting value, and I feel we’re getting a lot of value here!

The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.17 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WerUni

DAQSTATS Mon: Hamilton NAP
THE ULTRA Mon: Serie A and La Liga Preview
PAT HEALY: Recapping a brilliant week in Listowel
WEEK AHEAD: Champions League & Rugby World Cup
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