CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Wednesday’s Champions League games between MANCHESTER CITY v CLUB BRUGGE, RB LEIPZIG v PSG and LIVERPOOL v ATLETICO MADRID all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
MANCHESTER CITY V CLUB BRUGGE
8pm We have another excellent night of Champions League action on Wednesday! All eyes will be on Liverpool v Atletico Madrid, but we start the evening with the shortest price of the night on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as Manchester City host Club Brugge. At the time of writing, City trade as short as 1.13 and this is probably a case of how many goals they score rather than will they win. However, Crystal Palace turned over City here at the weekend and they started incredibly short for that game too! City have been creating a huge volume of chances this season and playing some excellent football; however their performance on Saturday was very poor. They only created an xG of 0.79. Compare this to their other losses this season – for example they lost 1-0 to Spurs but created an xG of 2.41 and then they lost to PSG but created an xG of nearly 2. After getting knocked out of the Carabao Cup too for the first time in years, City need a confidence boosting win here.
They probably couldn’t have asked for a better fixture too. They have home advantage against a side they’ve just beaten 5-1 away from home a couple of weeks ago. They finished the game with an xG of 4.81 to 0.70 which just highlights their dominance – usually you wouldn’t see an xG that high even with five goals. Brugge have actually impressed me thus far in the Champions League – I know there’s a huge gulf in class here, but it looks like they could manage third and go into the Europa League. That would be an excellent result considering they ended up in a Group with PSG, Man City and RB Leipzig! I can see them trying to keep things tight here, but ultimately coming up short. City do need a win however, and I can see them starting a little cagey – under 3.5 goals makes appeal for a small bet at 1.96. I can see City strolling to a 2-0 or 3-0 win here without getting out of second gear.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 3.5 goals at 1.96 BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMciBru
MATCH STATS
● Manchester City have won six of their seven games against Belgian opponents in European competition (L1), including a 5-1 victory in their only previous meeting with Club Brugge.
● Club Brugge are looking for their first victory against English opponents in European competition since February 1995 (1-0 v Chelsea in the Cup Winners’ Cup), having failed to win any of their last 13 attempts (D3 L10).
● Manchester City have scored 21 goals across their previous seven games against Belgian opponents, at an average of three per game. Their 5-1 win against Club Brugge last time out was the joint-most goals a team has scored away to the Belgian side in the UEFA Champions League, along with Paris Saint-Germain’s 5-0 win there in October 2019.
● Club Brugge have never won away from home against an English side in European competition, while this will be their 14th attempt at doing so. They’ve lost 11 of their previous 13 such games, drawing twice.
● Manchester City have won 80% of their home games in the UEFA Champions League since Pep Guardiola took charge of the club (20/25 – D2 L3). Among those with 20+ home games managed, this is the highest win percentage by a coach with a single club in the competition.
● Since losing five consecutive away games in the UEFA Champions League between November 2005 and October 2018, Club Brugge have only lost two of their nine such games since (W3 D4). The Belgian side will be looking to record consecutive away wins for the very first time in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League.
● Manchester City’s Jack Grealish has created more chances following carries (moving 5+ metres with the ball) than any other player in the UEFA Champions League this season. Overall, Real Madrid’s Vinícius Júnior (10) is the only player who has been directly involved in more shots than Grealish (9 – three shots, six chances created) following a ball carry.
● Phil Foden, who set up Manchester City’s opener last time out, already has six assists to his name in the UEFA Champions League. The only player with more assists before turning 22 for England clubs in the UEFA Champions League is Cesc Fàbregas (10 for Arsenal between 2006 and 2009).
● No team has completed a sequence of 10+ passes on fewer occasions than Club Brugge (6) in the UEFA Champions League this season. Meanwhile, since the start of last season, Manchester City have made more than any other team in the competition (361).
● Raheem Sterling has been directly involved in 24 goals in 27 home games for Manchester City in the UEFA Champions League, scoring 15 goals and making nine assists. Only Sergio Agüero (27) has more combined goals and assists for the club in home games in the competition.
RB LEIPZIG V PSG
8pm Next we stay in Group A as RB Leipzig host PSG. RB Leipzig are having a poor season but that’s what happens when you let Bayern Munich raid you during the summer. They have lost their opening three games, with a massive loss against Club Brugge in there too. With Club Brugge managing a draw with PSG too, that leaves RB Leipzig in a very difficult position and it looks like they are crashing out of Europe. With the situation between PSG and Manchester City at the top of the Group; they are unlikely to play an second XI’s either. Realistically they need a result here, because they won’t get one against Manchester City. PSG don’t arrive into this fixture without drama – they managed to beat Lille 2-1 at the weekend but they were terrible in the first half. Messi got taken off at half-time, and Pochettino came under fire after the game for “not winning easily enough!”
Despite that unfair criticism, PSG do have questions to answer. They have been giving away too many chances this season – perhaps they feel that they can simply outscore other teams given their amazing front three, but that doesn’t always work. While RB Leipzig had a very poor start to the season, there are signs now that they starting to play decent football again. On paper, they were held to a 1-1 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt at the weekend but they finished the game with a massive xG of 4.01 and were so unlucky not to win. They have started creeping up the Bundesliga table again, but obviously they have a lot of work to do. Given the chances PSG have been giving away, I feel Leipzig can get a result here. I’m happy to lay the 2.46 on PSG as I feel we’ll have a very open and close game here. I wouldn’t rule out a crazy score line with six or more goals, but I’d have the sides priced closer together.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) PSG to beat RB Leipzig at 2.46 BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQRbzPsg
MATCH STATS
● This will be the fifth meeting between RB Leipzig and Paris Saint-Germain, all of which have been in the UEFA Champions League since the start of the 2019-20 season. The French side have won three of their four meetings in the competition to date (L1).
● RB Leipzig have only won one of their four meetings with Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League, however that did come on the only occasion when they have hosted the French side (2-1 in November 2020).
● Paris Saint-Germain are looking to record consecutive away victories against German opponents in European competition for the first time, following their 3-2 win against Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals of last season’s tournament.
● RB Leipzig have only won one of their last seven games against French sides (D1 L5), after winning two of their first three against them in European competition, back in 2017-18.
● RB Leipzig have lost each of their last two home games in the UEFA Champions League (0-2 v Liverpool and 1-2 v Club Brugge), after only losing two of their first 10 home games in the competition between September 2017 and December 2020 (W6 D2).
● Paris Saint-Germain have only lost one of their previous nine away games in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League (W5 D3), however the defeat in this run came away to RB Leipzig last season. The French side took a sixth minute lead through Ángel Di María, but went on to lose 2-1 in November 2020.
● Only Real Madrid (15) have launched more direct attacks than Paris Saint-Germain (9) in the UEFA Champions League this season, while no team have scored more goals from direct attacks than the French side (2).
● Lionel Messi has scored three goals in his first three UEFA Champions League appearances for Paris Saint-Germain; the joint-most by a player for the club after three games in the competition, along with Neymar and Mauro Icardi. Messi scored his 34th brace in the UEFA Champions League last time out against RB Leipzig, with only Cristiano Ronaldo (37) netting more.
● RB Leipzig’s Christopher Nkunku has been involved in six sequences of play ending in goals in the UEFA Champions League this season; the most of any midfielder in the competition so far.
● Since making his debut in the UEFA Champions League in September 2016, Paris Saint-Germain forward Kylian Mbappé has been directly involved in more goals away from home than any other player in the competition (28 – 19 goals and nine assists).
LIVERPOOL V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm We finish the evening with the highlight fixture as Liverpool host Atletico Madrid. This is my most confident bet of the evening too, as Liverpool look massive at 1.72. This is another special European night at Anfield, and the place will be absolutely bouncing. Liverpool were held to a 2-2 draw against Brighton at the weekend after taking 2-0 lead, but in general they have been in superb form. Atletico played very well at the weekend in a 3-0 win over Real Betis, but they have been pretty average this season. Last week they were held to a 2-2 draw away to Levante who are in the bottom three in La Liga and they were lucky to get a draw too as Levante created more chances. The best way to describe Atletico this season is that they just haven’t fired. They’ve had a good opportunity to start the season quickly too given how poor Barcelona have been, but they are only sitting in fourth at the moment.
Atletico will say that they were a little unlucky to lose to Liverpool when they had home advantage, but the reality is in general they have just given away too many chances this season. Liverpool like to play an open game, so it’s easy to see a game filled with chances again here but I can’t get away from this Liverpool price at 1.72. I would have them closer to 1.6 and it’s an ideal time to support Liverpool and go against Atletico who have yet to really hit form this season – everything seems a grind for them at the moment, while Liverpool are creating chances from everywhere with Mo Salah the best player in the world at the moment. The 1.72 is a Max Bet for me.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Liverpool to beat Atletico Madrid at 1.72 BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLivAti
MATCH STATS
● Liverpool registered their first win over Atlético Madrid in the UEFA Champions League last time out (3-2 at the Wanda Metropolitano), having drawn two and lost two of their first four meetings in the competition.
● Atlético Madrid are unbeaten in their previous two games against Liverpool at Anfield in the UEFA Champions League (W1 D1), including a 3-2 victory in the Round of 16 on their last trip there in March 2020.
● Liverpool have only won two of their 13 home games against Spanish opponents in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League (D6 L5), although one of their two did come during Jürgen Klopp’s reign – a 4-0 win over Barcelona in May 2019.
● Atlético Madrid have lost just once in their last six away trips to face English opponents in European competition (W2 D3), however that defeat did come in their most recent one – a 2-0 defeat to Chelsea in the Round of 16 last season.
● Liverpool have only lost two of their 22 home games in the UEFA Champions League under Jürgen Klopp (W15 D5), however one of those came against Diego Simeone’s Atlético Madrid, losing 3-2 in the Round of 16 in 2019-20 to be eliminated from the tournament.
● Atlético Madrid have won their last two away games in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League, and will be looking to win three in row on the road in the competition for only the second time under Diego Simeone (previously three between 2015 and 2016).
● James Milner (12) is currently tied with Steven Gerrard for all-time UEFA Champions League assists for Liverpool. Teammate Roberto Firmino (11) is also within range of the club record, while Trent-Alexander Arnold (7) is already inside the top five.
● Antoine Griezmann has scored three goals in three UEFA Champions League games since returning to Atlético Madrid, including a brace versus Liverpool last time out. The Frenchman will be looking to score in three consecutive appearances in the competition for the first time in his career.
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored 13 goals in 20 UEFA Champions League appearances at Anfield. If he finds the net in this game, he will equal Steven Gerrard (14) as the club’s all-time top scorer in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League at their home venue.
● Including extra time, seven of Atlético Madrid’s last nine away goals in the UEFA Champions League have been scored in the 84th minute or later. This includes three goals in extra time at Anfield in March 2020, while their last away goal in the competition was a 97th minute winner from a Luis Suárez penalty against AC Milan.
