CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews the three games between REAL MADRID v UNION BERLIN, BAYERN MUNICH v MANCHESTER UNITED and ARSENAL v PSV all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
REAL MADRID V UNION BERLIN
5.45pm We continue the Champions League action on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week with a cracking fixture list on Wednesday. No doubt all eyes will be on Bayern Munich v Man United as the headline fixture, but Arsenal are back after so many years and we kick off the evening with a brilliant fixture as Real Madrid host Union Berlin. It’s fair to say that there’s a good chance Union Berlin will be out of the top four in Germany this season, so they have to enjoy this Champions League season to the max. Their story is a remarkable one; it wasn’t so long ago their fans will giving their spare time to do jobs around the stadium! Union Berlin are a very solid side, especially when they have home advantage, but you have to say that there is a gulf in class here. Financially and history wise this is David v Goliath. Real Madrid come into the game as the red-hot favourites; they are trading 1.4 at the time of writing with Union Berlin 9.6 and the draw is 5.4. It’s hard to see past the home win here to be honest, but Union Berlin mainly focus on being rock solid at the back so an interesting game awaits.
Real won again at the weekend taking their record in La Liga this season to a perfect five from five. It’s fine margins in La Liga, and to have a two point lead over Barcelona already isn’t a bad place to be at the top of the table. Union Berlin started the season with two wins, and one of those wins was against a side who just came up from the Bundesliga 2, before putting back-to-back losses together. You have to give Union so much credit for grinding out result last season, but they massively over-performed in front of goal. Their average xG this season is pretty low at 1.23, and they are conceding more chances than that too. Compare that to Real Madrid who are creating an average xG of 2.27 this season and that rises to 2.67 when they are at home too. I think Union will come into this game very negatively and try to leave with a draw – that should make the markets interesting because we all know Union are well drilled at the back. I can see Real having to work very hard to grind out a win, and Under 2.5 goals is nice value at 2.28. However, I much prefer Both Teams Not To Score at 1.88 – Union always struggle to create chances and they won’t see much of the ball here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaUni
BAYERN MUNICH V MANCHESTER UNITED
8pm Next we move onto the 8pm fixtures, and there’s no doubt what is the highlight as Bayern Munich host Manchester United. Bayern Munich were held to a draw against Bayer Leverkusen on Friday night to drop their first points of the season, but the likes of Dortmund and RB Leipzig have already dropped points too. It’s hard to see past Bayern for the title in the Bundesliga, especially with the signing of Harry Kane too, and let’s be honest – they were way below their usual level last season and still got away with it. While Bayern might not be the force of old, United are in complete disarray at the moment. They were outplayed at home at the weekend against Brighton for an embarrassing 3-1 loss; that’s going to pile the pressure on Erik ten Hag and you’d have to say at the moment it looks like the players aren’t playing for him. The tracking back as been awful – don’t forget this squad have thrown many managers under the bus over the last few years and you have to wonder what’s going on behind the scenes at the moment. All the focus will be on the owners and when you look at the history under them it’s easy to see that they are clearly the issue. I’m a big fan of ten Hag, but one wonders how much of this he can actually take – that’s without worrying about the owners pulling the trigger. If the players win again and get another manager sacked, it really highlights how poorly run the club is.
United have been beaten by Spurs, Arsenal and Brighton this season so they have had a difficult fixture list. More worrying is probably their performances against Wolves and Nottingham Forest. They were two games that they should have bossed and they ended up winning by one goal with more questions than answers. Based on performance levels, it’s very hard to see past Bayern here. I was surprised to see them trading as big as 1.55 when I clicked into the market – if you fancy a surprise United are trading 6.2 with the draw at 5.0. There’s very little positive to say about United this season, and I just can’t see past Bayern here at 1.55. United are conceding an average xG of 1.62, which is a bigger figure than they are creating, and you just can’t concede those kind of chances away to Bayern. At 1.55, I feel we’re getting so much value Bayern are worth a Max Bet.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayern Munich to beat Manchester United at 1.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayMun
ARSENAL V PSV
8pm We move over to Group B to finish the evening as Arsenal return to the Champions League. They were gifted a pretty easy Group on their return, they host PSV here and they also have Sevilla and Lens too. Sevilla have had a terrible start to La Liga again this season, and Lens are sitting bottom of Ligue 1 at the moment! PSV seem like they will be Arsenal’s biggest challenge – they sit top of the Eredivisie and they were a solid second behind Feyenoord last season. That being said, the gulf in class between the Premier League and the Eredivisie is huge, and Arsenal come into this game as the red-hot favourites. They are only two ticks off the Real Madrid price which is the shortest price of the night. The home win is currently trading 1.42 with PSV 8.6 and the draw is 5.5. Despite the gulf in class between the domestic leagues, Arsenal might have a few layers at 1.42 considering that PSV knocked them out of the Europa League last season. Arsenal won the home tie 1-0, but PSV won 2-0 in Holland to get the job done. If you look at the under-lining numbers, Arsenal were very unlucky not to progress.
They finished the first leg with an xG of 2.76 and then 1.81 (more than PSV created) in the second leg. They didn’t take their chances though, and that’s football. PSV simply can’t affod to give away the same quality of chances here because those results could have easily been 3-0 or 4-0 to Arsenal. The Gunners have started the season in flying form; of course it hasn’t been without moments of drama – there always is drama with Arsenal – and the Manchester United game could have been very different if not for that fine margin offside. That being said, you can’t help but be impressed by Arsenal’s figures – their average xG created is 1.84 and they are only conceding an average xG of 0.84. They are only one of two sides in the Premier League with an average xG conceded less than one this season; you can probably guess the other one, Manchester City! I couldn’t put anyone off the 1.42 on Arsenal as a bet, but I’m going to take a chance in the Handicap market here. Arsenal created so many chances against PSV last time I can see them running riot if they can get an early goal. The 2.11 on Arsenal -1.5 goals looks a cracking bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Arsenal -1.5 goals to beat PSV at 2.11 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsPsv