WEDNESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews LAZIO v BAYERN MUNICH and PSG v REAL SOCIEDAD both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAZIO V BAYERN MUNICH
8pm It’s a fantastic Valentine’s Day from the Champions League on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have two very interesting markets – Bayern Munich and PSG are both odds on favourites against sides that on paper they should be – they are both trading within five ticks of each other too, but you could also say that they haven’t been at their best this season. We kick off Wednesday night with Lazio hosting Bayern Munich. We saw a dramatic clash in the Bundesliga between Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich at the weekend with Bayern coming out on the wrong end of a 3-0 hammering. That was a huge blow in the title race; they are now five points behind and for the first time in years it actually looks like Bayern might not win the title. You can take Harry Kane out of Spurs, but you cannot take the Spurs out of Harry Kane (he’ll surely win a trophy here at some stage though!). It will be interesting to see how Bayern bounce back here; Lazio have been quite average this season and have dropped out of the top four in Serie A. They did massively over-perform for second place last season, but to their credit they grinded out a lot of results when everyone else was dropping points apart from Napoli.
While Lazio aren’t too far off the European spots, their under-lining numbers tell a very different story. They have been over-performing this season again! Their average xG created is only 1.09 which is actually the fourth worst attacking figure in Serie A. They have mainly focused on being solid at the back and to their credit they are conceding just a little over one goal per game on average but obviously that has come at a cost going forward. They’ve actually created marginally less away from home compared to at home too which is obviously a big negative here. I know Bayern aren’t leading the Bundesliga this season but in fairness Bayer Leverkusen have been exceptional. Bayern’s average xG created is still as high as 2.32 and they have been very impressive at the back too. They come into this game as the 1.69 favourites with Lazio 5.8 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. I have to say the 1.69 on Bayern feels very big here, at least ten ticks too big in my opinion. I know Lazio will be very cagey here and hard to break down, but there’s a massive difference between the sides when it comes to performance levels. Bayern will be too good going forward for Lazio here, and I’m very happy to take the 1.69 – I feel we’re getting so much value it’s worth a Max Bet.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Bayern Munich to beat Lazio at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazBay
PSG V REAL SOCIEDAD
8pm Next we have PSG hosting Real Sociedad, and we have a very similar market to the game above, except this time the home side are the odds on favourites. PSG are trading 1.74 with Real Sociedad 5.6 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. As I said above, PSG haven’t been at their best this season but they don’t need to be to win Ligue 1. They had a very slow start this season but they have already built a huge gap – another win at the weekend over Lille who are in the top four means the title is effectively in the bag already. As I said in my preview of that game, they will be judged on their performance in the Champions League as usual rather than winning Ligue 1. The thing about PSG however is that although they had Neymar, Messi and Mbappe in front they were never a team. Everything in behind the top three didn’t work. They are going to lose Mbappe this summer and then they can start a re-build. To be honest, they need to build a team rather than just go for highly paid stars that cause problems in the dressing room. We all know issues off the pitch have been an issue for PSG for years now. Real Sociedad haven’t been at their best either this season; after getting fourth spot last season they have dropped down to seventh and they are very unlikely to see Champions League football next season so they better enjoy it this season!
Sociedad have been very average going forward this season, but that has been countered by the fact they have been so good at the back. I suppose you could call them boring, but that’s probably being harsh. Their average xG conceded in La Liga this season is only 1.16 which is the second best defensive figure in the league. They are only creating an average xG of 1.31 so there’s the problem, but from a betting point of view it does make this game very interesting. It’s easy to see that Real Sociedad will come here to defend and try to get back to Spain with as little damage done as possible. They will have eleven men behind the ball and it will be up to PSG to make all the running. I can’t see the 1.74 on PSG being massive value, and you could easily get bigger in-running. The bet I like here is Under 2.5 goals at 1.97 – I was surprised to see it trading so high. Both Teams Not To Score is also a nice option at the same price. PSG have the best attacking figure in Ligue 1 this season at an average xG of 1.87 but the fact it’s not over 2.0 in a very weak league shows that they haven’t really been blowing sides away. I think they will likely win here, but it will be a grind and Unders looks a nice position at 1.97.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PsgSoc