Indianapolis Colts (3-2, 4-1 ATS) @ Houston Texans (3-2, 4-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -3 (46.5)
Significant Injuries
Indianapolis: LB Jerrell Feeeman (questionable– hamstring), CB Darius Butler (out– ankle), DT Arthur Jones (out– ankle), G Jack Mewhort (out– ankle), G Hugh Thornton (out– back)
Houston: WR Andre Johnson (questionable- ankle), LB Jadeveon Clowney (out– knee), CB Darryl Morris (out– ankle)
Recent Trends
Indianapolis is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 Thursday night games
Indianapolis is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. AFC South opponents
Houston is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
Houston is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games
Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. AFC South opponents
Houston is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday night games
The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 7-1 in Indianapolis’ last 8 road games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Houston’s last 5 home games
The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. While these teams have identical 3-2 records, the Colts have dealt with a much tougher schedule and they’ve been far more impressive than Houston, as their +48 point differential in second-best in the entire NFL. Houston’s three wins have come against teams with a combined record of 4-10.
2. The high-powered Indianapolis offense leads the NFL in points scored (31.2 ppg) and passing yards (321.8 ypg) and ranks 2nd in total yards per game (439.6 ypg). The Texans, meanwhile, rank 22nd in total offense and 24th in points scored. Houston simply won’t be able to keep up on Thursday night.
3. The Colts have absolutely owned the division in recent years, compiling a 14-3 record against the spread in their last 17 games vs. AFC South opponents. The Texans, on the other hand, have covered just once in their last 7 division games. These teams know each other implicitly, they play twice every year. In-division trends matter.
Three reasons to back Houston
1. Bettors that haven’t respected Houston this season have paid dearly, as the Texans are 4-1 against the number. They’ve won both of their home games outright despite being a 3-point underdog each time, and, wouldn’t you know it, they’re 3-point home underdogs again in this matchup. The Colts’ only road win this season came against Jacksonville, the league’s worst team.
2. The Texans have a stout defense that ranks 4th in the NFL in points allowed, surrendering just 17.4 points per game. Indianapolis is a team that has racked up yards and points against some of the worst defenses in the NFL, like those in Jacksonville, Denver, Philadelphia, and Tennessee. Facing a defense like Houston’s on the road will be a unique challenge for the Colts, and they haven’t been good in situations like this lately, covering just twice in their last 8 road games against teams with winning records.
3. The Colts haven’t been able to stop the run for years, and they’re surrendering over 100 yards per game on the ground again this season. The Houston offense, of course, is led by the power running of Arian Foster, who ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing. Foster should have a big day against the vulnerable Indianapolis front seven, which will open up opportunities in the passing game for Ryan Fitzpatrick the the formidable Houston receiving corps. This is a great matchup for the Texans.
Prediction
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