Minnesota Vikings (2-2, 2-2 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (2-2, 1-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Green Bay -7.5 (47.5)
Significant Injuries
Minnesota: QB Teddy Bridgewater (questionable– ankle), LB Chad Greenway (out– hand), TE Kyle Rudolph (out– abdomen)
Green Bay: LB Sam Barrington (doubtful– hamstring), DT Josh Boyd (doubtful– knee), WR Jarrett Boykin (out– groin)
Recent Trends
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC North opponents
Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win
Green Bay is 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games vs. NFC North opponents
Green Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. Minnesota
The UNDER is 4-1 in Minnesota’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in Green Bay’s last 5 games vs. NFC North opponents
The OVER is 6-2 in Green Bay’s last 8 games overall
The OVER is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Minnesota
1. The Vikings are better than people realize: they’ve been underdogs in all four of their games but have won twice, they’re scoring more points than they allow, and their defense has frustrated three of the NFL’s best quarterbacks (Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady). The Packers, meanwhile, have steadily regressed over the past couple of years and now represent one of the worst bets in the league, as they’ve covered just once in four attempts this season.
2. Through four games Green Bay ranks last in run defense, surrendering a staggering 176 rushing yards per game. They’ll have little chance of containing a Minnesota rushing attack that ranks 8th in the league and rolled up 241 yards on Atlanta last week. This is a great matchup for the Minnesota offense.
3. If you remove all biases and opinions that were formed before the season and just look at what has happened over the past four games, it becomes clear that the Packers just aren’t a very good team. They rank 22nd in total offense, 28th in total defense, and have yet to beat a team with a winning record. They have no business being 7.5-point favorites over anyone right now, much less a Vikings team that is coming off an impressive victory against an Atlanta team that leads the NFL in total offense.
Three reasons to back Green Bay
1. Let’s not kid ourselves here: this is the Green Bay Packers, a veteran team led by a future Hall of Fame quarterback, facing a Minnesota team that will either be quarterbacked by a hobbled rookie (Bridgewater) or a proven disaster (Ponder). This game is a one-sided mismatch, with Minnesota’s success last week and Green Bay’s relatively slow start to the season the only reasons why we’re not dealing with a double-digit number here. Bettors should jump at this opportunity.
2. The Minnesota defense hasn’t been particularly effective against the run or the pass this season– they don’t rank in the top-15 in either category– and this week they’ll be asked to slow a Packers offense that awoke from its early-season slumber last week, racking up 38 points in a road win over Chicago. Making things even worse for the Vikings is the fact that linebacker Chad Greenway, a defensive captain, will miss this game with a hand injury.
3. Green Bay never has any trouble with Minnesota at home, covering in 4 of the past 5 attempts despite being favored each and every time (by an average of 7.7 points). This year’s Vikings team, which lacks a reliable quarterback and isn’t particularly effective on either side of the ball, isn’t going to be the one that breaks the mold. And the Vikings know what it’s like to be on the receiving end of a blowout, as their two losses this season have come by 34 combined points.
Prediction
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