New York Jets (1-5, 0-5-1 ATS) @ New England Patriots (4-2, 3-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New England -9.5 (44.5)
Significant Injuries
New York: S Josh Bush (doubtful– quadricep), LB Trevor Reilly (out– knee), WR Greg Salas (out– wrist)
New England: G Dan Connolly (questionable– concussion), C Bryan Stork (questionable– concussion), CB Brandon Browner (questionable– ankle), LB Jamie Collins (questionable– thigh), DE Dominique Easley (questionable– shoulder), LB Dont’a Hightower (questionable– knee), WR Matthew Slater (questionable– shoulder), S Nate Ebner (out– finger), OT Cameron Fleming (out– finger), LB Jerod Mayo (out– knee), RB Stevan Ridley (out– knee)
Recent Trends
New York is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss
New York is 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 road games
New England is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games
New England is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-1 in New York’s last 5 Thursday games
The UNDER is 4-1 in New York’s last 5 games vs. AFC opponents
The OVER is 14-3 in New England’s last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back New York
1. The line in this game is out of hand– New England simply hasn’t been good enough this season to justify a double-digit number in a divisional game. Plus, the underdog always does well in this rivalry, covering in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
2. The Jets have been excellent on defense this season, ranking 6th in yards allowed and 8th against the run. The Patriots, meanwhile, have been somewhat limited on offense, producing 20 points or fewer 3 times in 6 games. They also lost starting running back Stevan Ridley to a knee injury in their last game, which will hurt against the ferocious New York front seven.
3. The New England defense is vulnerable against the run, surrendering 111 rushing yards per game. That sets up perfectly for the ground-and-pound Jets, who rely on their impressive stable of backs and average over 120 yards per game on the ground.
Three reasons to back New England
1. The Patriots have finally found their stride after a slow start to the season, winning their last two games by 41 combined points despite facing two winning teams. The offense has really come alive, producing 80 combined points over the past two weeks.
2. The Jets have been laughably bad this season, losing every game but one. And not only do they lose, they lose big– all 5 of their losses have come by 7 points or more and the last two have come by 45 combined points.
3. New York has one of the league’s worst offenses, a unit that ranks 30th in both total yards and points scored and 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in pass yards per game. They’re led by quarterback Geno Smith, who has accounted for more turnovers than any player in the NFL since the beginning of last season. Smith has little chance of success against a New England defense that ranks 5th in yards allowed and 3rd against the pass.
Prediction
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