San Diego Chargers (5-2, 5-2 ATS) @ Denver Broncos (5-1, 3-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Denver -8.5 (51.5)
Significant Injuries
San Diego: CB Jason Verrett (questionable– shoulder), CB Steven Williams (questionable- groin), LB Jeremiah Attaochu (doubtful– hamstring), RB Donald Brown (out– concussion), CB Brandon Flowers (out– concussion), RB Ryan Mathews (out– knee), LB Manti Te’o (out– foot)
Denver: LB Steven Johnson (questionable– ankle), CB Omar Bolden (out– concussion), RB Montee Ball (out– groin)
Recent Trends
San Diego is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
San Diego is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games
San Diego is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss
San Diego is 11-4-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these 2 teams
Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday night games
The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 5-1 in San Diego’s last 6 road games
The UNDER is 4-0 in Denver’s last 4 games vs. AFC West opponents
The OVER is 11-2 in Denver’s last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Three reasons to back San Diego
1. The number here is out of hand– 8.5 is far too many points to give a team of San Diego’s caliber, but it’s typical of the treatment that the overvalued Broncos have received this year. Denver covered just once in their first four games and would’ve gone 1-for-5 had it not been for a miraculous pick-six late in their Week 6 game against the New York Jets. They’re simply not as good as they were last season, and the line in this game is proof that oddsmakers don’t realize it yet.
2. The Broncos are vulnerable in the secondary, ranking 18th in passing defense, and San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers is in the midst of a career year that may net him the MVP award. Through seven games Rivers has completed 67.4% of his passes for nearly 2,00o yards, throwing 17 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions. Slowing down Rivers and the San Diego offense is going to be a tremendous challenge for the outmanned Denver secondary.
3. We’ve seen this matchup before, and it wasn’t too long ago: in Week 15 of last season the Chargers came to Denver and handed the Broncos a 27-20 defeat. The rosters are largely unchanged; San Diego has been slightly better than they were a year ago, doing 5-2 and 5-2 against the spread, while Denver has been slightly worse. Why, again, are the Broncos favored by 8.5 here?
Three reasons to back Denver
1. Denver is a team on the rise, while San Diego is regressing. In last week’s Sunday night game we finally saw the Broncos recapture last season’s form, as they delivered a 42-17 beating to the San Francisco 49ers, a respected team. The Chargers, meanwhile, have produced their two worst performances of the season in their last two games, a loss to Kansas City last week and a 3-point win over winless Oakland in Week 6. There’s a reason this line moved from Den -7.5 to Den -8.5 over the past 48 hours.
2. The Broncos are once again scoring more points (31.5 ppg) than any team in the league, and their Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning is having another MVP-caliber season. On Thursday night Manning will face a San Diego secondary that will be without top cornerback Brandon Flowers due to a concussion, so big things are expected out of the Denver offense. Last week they hung 42 points on a 49ers defense that came into the game ranked 2nd in yards allowed and 5th in points allowed.
3. Despite all the attention their offense receives, the Denver defense has been just as good this season, ranking 6th in both yards allowed and points allowed. The Chargers have a one-dimensional offense– they can’t run the ball– and their o-line has been re-shuffled several times due to injury issues, so the Broncos should be able to get after Philip Rivers. It’s difficult to imagine Rivers and the San Diego offense keeping pace with Manning and the high-flying Broncos.
Prediction
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