Tennessee Titans (2-12, 3-10-1 ATS) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12, 4-9-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Jacksonville -3.5 (38.5)
Significant Injuries
Tennessee: LB Zaviar Gooden (questionable– hamstring), TE Delanie Walker (questionable– knee), LB Kamerion Wimbley (questionable– hamstring), WR Kendall Wright (questionable– hand), OT Taylor Lewan (doubtful– ankle), QB Zach Mettenberger (doubtful– shoulder), RB Dexter McCluster (out– knee)
Jacksonville: DT Roy Miller (questionable– knee), QB Blake Bortles (questionable– foot), DE Ryan Davis (questionable– hip), S Josh Evans (questionable– foot), WR Tommy Streeter (questionable– abdomen), DE Andre Branch (out– groin), LB Khairi Fortt (out– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday night games
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games
Tennessee is 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 games vs. AFC opponents
Jacksonville is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. AFC opponents
The OVER is 9-2 in Tennessee’s last 11 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game
The UNDER is 6-2 in Tennessee’s last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 7-1 in Jacksonville’s last 8 games vs. AFC opponents
The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Tennessee
1. Titans bettors have a chance to take advantage of an opportunity that hasn’t presented itself in a few years: the opportunity to bet against Jacksonville and actually get points. That’s right, the Jaguars, who have been underdogs in 42 straight games, are a 3-point favorite here despite their 2-12 record and the fact that they lost to this same Tennessee team a few weeks ago. The Titans were competitive in a loss to New York last week, losing by just 5 points, while each of Jacksonville’s last 6 losses have come by 8 points or more. Tennessee is simply the better team, something they proved back in Week 6 and will likely prove again on Thursday night.
2. The Tennessee defense has struggled mightily against the NFL’s top offenses but they play well when facing the league’s lesser teams, as they’ve held five opponents to 21 points or fewer this season. The Jaguars rank last in the NFL in points scored, producing just 15.3 per game, so the Tennessee defense should dominate the action, just as they did when these teams met back in Week 6 (a 16-14 Titans win). Plus, the strength of the Tennessee defense is the secondary, and Jacksonville starts rookie Blake Bortles at quarterback, who has thrown 17 interceptions this season despite not making his first start until Week 4.
3. Jacksonville has an awful defense that ranks 28th in yards allowed and 29th in points allowed, and the Tennessee offense is in a position to succeed now that they have a veteran quarterback under center once again and will have their top playmaker, wideout Kendall Wright, back after a 2-game absence. Charlie Whitehurst gets the start at QB for the Titans, and the circumstances that put him back in the lineup– injuries to rookie Zach Mettenberger and struggling veteran Jake Locker– should be viewed as a blessing in disguise for Titans bettors. Whitehurst led the team to their win over the Jags in Week 6, completing 17 of 28 passes for 233 yards and, most importantly, not accounting for any turnovers. Both Mettenberger and Locker turned the ball over at an unacceptable rate this season, costing the team several wins. A “clean” game from Whitehurst against this dreadful Jacksonville defense should be enough to get Tennessee the victory.
Three reasons to back Jacksonville
1. The Jags are showing definite signs of life in recent weeks, beating the New York Giants in Week 13 and hanging tough with playoff contenders Houston and Baltimore in their last two games. The Titans, meanwhile, have lost 8 straight games and are down to a 3rd-string quarterback after injuries to starter Zach Mettenberger and backup Jake Locker. Besides, the Jaguars should’ve won the last time these teams met– they out-gained the Titans by nearly 100 yards and were a blocked field goal away from pulling off the upset. This time is in Jacksonville, where the Jags have won twice this season. Tennessee hasn’t won on the road since Week 1.
2. The Titans are so bad defensively that some have openly wondered about the effort being put forth over these past few games. They simply can’t stop the run, ranking last in the NFL in rushing defense, and they’ve surrendered more points than every team but Chicago. When these teams met back in Week 6 Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles has the best game of his young career, accounting for 379 total yards.
3. The Tennessee offense has scored 24 points or fewer in 9 consecutive games and they’ve produced just 18 combined points in their last two outings, losses to the Jets and Giants. They haven’e been able to run the ball all year and now they’re down to a 3rd-string quarterback. They’re going to have trouble moving the ball on a Jacksonville defense that has been very good lately, limiting Baltimore’s top-10 offense to just 314 total yards and 20 points last week and holding Houston to 304 total yards the week before. The Jags rank 6th in the league in Sacks, so Whitehurst could be in for a long night.
Prediction
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