WORLD CUP SATURDAY: The Ultra previews Saturday’s four World Cup games between WORLD CUP ULTRA Sat: TUNISIA V AUSTRALIA, POLAND V SAUDI ARABIA, FRANCE V DENMARK and ARGENTINA V MEXICO all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
TUNISIA V AUSTRALIA
10am A simply massive day on BETDAQ Betting Exchange at the World Cup this Saturday. When the fixture list first came out, you could have easily called this is a bit of a bland day but after the results on Tuesday we now have a monster day ahead. We have a huge clash between France and Denmark in Group D later but all eyes will be on Argentina against Mexico in the final day today after Argentina shockingly lost to Saudi Arabia in their opening game! Who saw that coming? We kick the day off in Group D with Tunisia taking on Australia – while this won’t exactly be the glamour fixture of the day, after getting a draw against Denmark this is a huge game for Tunisia. That draw has given Tunisia a great chance of qualifying as France are odds on to beat Denmark later. If that happens, then we’ll likely go to a goal difference situation; which to be honest would have been Tunisia’s best outcome when we started the Group stage. You might say Denmark have a slight edge there because they play Australia last, but France would have won their opening two games (if we get to that situation) and would likely be certain of top spot having the chance to rest players. Fair to say this Group just got interesting as it looked routine for France and Denmark to go through.
Tunisia come into this game as big favourites, but they aren’t odds on. They are trading 2.16 at the time of writing, and while it’s hard to fully judge Australia on their performance against France – they did look pretty weak coming into the tournament. They finished third in AFC qualifying behind Saudi Arabia and Japan – that form got a boost when Saudi Arabia beat Argentina, but I think that was just a complete shock! They only managed an xG of 0.57 against France, but we have to remember the gulf in class between the sides. Their fans were living the dream for a while after they took a 1-0 lead, but were brought back down to earth with a bang! This game will tell us more about both sides here – Tunisia actually played well against Denmark and deserved their draw. Tunisia definitely looked the better side in the two opening games, but the 2.16 does feel a little short. I think we’ll see a closer game than those odds suggest – I’m going to keep stakes very small here, but a Tunisia lay from a value point of view is a nice option.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Tunisia to beat Australia at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TunAus
POLAND V SUADI ARABIA
1pm Next we go to Group C as Poland take on Saudi Arabia. This Group was thrown wide open earlier in the week with Saudi Arabia beating Argentina. That ended a run of 36 games unbeaten for Argentina, and fair to say not many football fans saw that coming. Argentina were trading as short as 1.18 before the off there, and that must go down as one of the biggest World Cup shocks for a while. While it was an incredible achievement for Saudi Arabia, they scored two of the most unlikely goals – they were incredible. Their total xG from the game was just 0.15 though while Argentina created 2.30. From a stat point of view, you’d have to call it lucky – it couldn’t be anything else – but what a story. Their tactics will be interesting here because a draw would put them in a cracking position to be in the mix to get through. They are definitely going to play with a draw in mind, and it will be interesting to see how this average Poland side break them down. Poland have been pretty average for a while now – they will say that they have made progress in the Nations League and such, but they haven’t been a top team for a while. They exited Euro 2020 at the Group stage and there’s a good chance the same will happen here. They played out a reasonably boring 0-0 draw with Mexico, and pre-tournament you thought that game would decide who finishes second, but now it’s pretty open!
Poland come into this game as the odds on favourites, and while I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.8 you have to feel that they will get the job done. Saudi Arabia are a good side, we saw that this week, but you can’t get away from the gulf in class here. It’s likely that if we played that Argentina v Saudi Arabia game another nine times, Argentina would win the other nine times – that’s the beauty of football in one sense; we get these incredible moments and results. I’m not a fan of Poland – they just don’t create enough for me and I’m happy to avoid the match odds market here. I fully expect Saudi Arabia to sit back and defend for their lives, and Poland sometime struggle to create chances. Under 2.5 goals stands out for me at very close to the same price as the Poland win. I much prefer Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 compared to the Poland win, and I wouldn’t put anyone off Both Teams Not To Score at around 1.92 either. I expect this to be a reasonably dull game; possibly a 1-0 win to Poland.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PolSau
FRANCE V DENMARK
4pm We have two huge games to finish Saturday evening, and we start in Group D with France meeting Denmark. Pre-tournament you would have expected both sides to have three points after winning their opening games, but Denmark could only draw 0-0 with Tunisia and that’s put them in a tricky position. If they lose here, and they will know the Tunisia result before kick-off, they could be looking at a goal difference situation at best. If Tunisia failed to win against Australia, that would definitely take the pressure off. France came into this tournament with a mountain of question marks after their performance in the Nations League this year – they have injury problems, and they also got worse this week with Karim Benzema ruled out for the World Cup. I’m sure Didier Deschamps was absolutely sweating when Australia took the lead in their opening game! He has been under immense pressure at home, but you have to credit the response from France after going behind. They absolutely hammered Australia in the end and actually could have scored more than four goals too. They finished with an xG of 4.25. You’d have to be disappointed that Denmark couldn’t beat Tunisia, especially given their starting price, but we were on Under 2.5 goals because Tunisia do have a reputation of being solid at the back.
France will attack more here, and that might actually suit Denmark more. The issue is they are going up against more quality in attack themselves, and both sides might actually gel together well and we’ll have a very entertaining game. I was surprised to see Under 2.5 goals trading so short at 1.71, but at the same time we can’t forget that a draw isn’t a bad result here for Denmark despite the fact they couldn’t beat Tunisia. A draw here and a win against Australia would be enough because it’s hard to see Tunisia getting anything against France, that’s even after them beating Australia. France are the odds on favourites, but I feel the 1.87 looks the right price. It’s hard to argue that they should be shorter, and I wouldn’t want to lay them – I’d had them 1.88 on my tissue so I don’t see any value there. I’m going to keep stakes reasonably small again here, but Over 2.5 goals looks a nice value bet at 2.19. I respect the fact Denmark might sit back here, but I do feel that we get a nice clash of styles here and we see an open game – especially if we see a goal in the first half. Some games you look at and they seem they might be a bit boring, I think this is the opposite – I think we could have a cracker here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.19 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FraDmk
ARGENTINA V MEXICO
7pm We move back to Group D to finish the day as Argentina meet Mexico. After the absolute shock of losing to Saudi Arabia in their opening game, Argentina find themselves sitting bottom of the Group! Everyone would have assumed they’d be sitting top, and then it would be between Mexico and Poland for second. That has obviously changed now, and Argentina face a situation where they could get knocked out of the tournament here. If you look at the underlining numbers, it’s clear that Argentina were unlucky in their loss to Saudi Arabia, but here we are. On paper pre-tournament, I would have say that this was their most difficult fixture. Mexico are a solid side who generally like to keep games as tight as possible – we landed a nice bet on the draw at 3.1 in their game against Poland and they will set up to get a draw here. Despite the shock win for Saudi Arabia, Mexico will fancy themselves to beat Saudi Arabia so a draw here could see them top the Group. How Argentina perform here under immense pressure will be very interesting to see, and I feel that they are going to have to work very hard to win. Perhaps will a bit of Messi magic, they can grind out a win, but it won’t be easy work.
When I look at the match odds I feel that the 1.61 is too short on Argentina. I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest there – I always felt this would be Argentina’s biggest test in the Group stage and that hasn’t changed. I know Poland are a pretty average side, but Mexico kept them to no goal with relative ease in their opening game. Although I couldn’t put anyone off the Argentina lay at the odds, Under 2.5 goals stands out here at 1.79. I can see Mexico being very negative, and although Argentina need a result I don’t see them chasing the game too early. If they get too reckless at the back they know that they are out of the tournament. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a very cagey start and 0-0 at half-time, before the game possibly opens up from there. From a Mexico point of view, they’ll want to keep it as tight as possible for as long as possible. Unders looks a very nice position here, and it’s my most confident bet of the day.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArgMex