WORLD CUP SUNDAY: The Ultra previews Sunday’s World Cup Final between ARGENTINA v FRANCE including a recommended BETDAQ bet.


3pm We have a FIFA World Cup Final for the ages on Sunday as Argentina clash with France on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. This is a dream Final, and there’s so many narratives too – it’s Messi v Mbappe, Messi trying to cement his place in football history and then there’s France going to back-to-back World Cup’s too which would be an incredible achievement. When you first looked at the draw, we always could have had this Final – the big question was could Argentina come through Brazil but we didn’t get to see that Semi-Final unfortunately. France have been pretty much perfect throughout the tournament – they have been under the pump at times of course, but their talent going forward has always won out. It might have been interesting to see what would have happen if Harry Kane scored that penalty, but we’ll never know!

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It seems like so long ago that Saudi Arabia shocked Argentina in their opening Group game! That remains the biggest shock of the tournament, despite seeing a host of surprises along the way. You have to say that they were unlucky to lose that game – they conceded an xG of just 0.16 with Saudi Arabia scoring two world class goals from unlikely positions. Argentina have been absolutely rock solid at the back right throughout the tournament – their total xG conceded is just 2.47. That is an exceptionally impressive figure. All the limelight will be on their attacking talent, what Messi creates no doubt, but at the end of the day their solid base at the back has put them in a strong position in every game.

That is definitely where the game could be won for Argentina. They have been much better than France at the back – France have conceded a total xG of 7.78. Interestingly, they conceded a higher xG than they crated against Poland and England in their knockout games, and although Morocco clearly aren’t on the same level as France – Morocco did manage to create their highest xG of their tournament. You couldn’t say that France have been lucky per se, but they are clearly conceding chances in the knockouts.

There isn’t much between the sides going forward. Both are brilliant, both have some of the top talent in the world. Argentina have created a total xG of 13.72 while France have created 13.1. There really isn’t much between them, I mean either Messi and Mbappe can turn the game completely on its head with a moment of magic. It’s easy to understand then we why have an open market – the match odds at the time of writing are currently trading; Argentina 2.94, France 2.92 and the draw is 3.1. It’s pretty exciting to have such a close market for a World Cup Final – it’s even a good debate who will start favourite!

Although we have a tonne of attacking talent on the pitch, Under 2.5 goals is trading odds on at 1.63. It’s highly likely we have a very cagey start to the game as both sides settle into it. Argentina have started most of their games slowly, and then taken over in the second half. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see 0-0 at half-time, so Under 2.5 goals could be a nice trade at 1.63. We know looking at the stats that Argentina won’t be giving too many chances away – it’s just about how solid France are at the back.

Although both sides kept a clean sheet in the Semi-Finals, Both Teams To Score is certainly of interest here at 2.07. The only thing putting me off that is how solid Argentina have been at the back, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see France find a way through at some stage. We could easily see a 1-1 final score and extra-time – maybe even penalties – how dramatic could that be!

Argentina have been very kind to us right throughout the tournament, and although I am worried about the draw here, I still feel Argentina at 2.94 is a good value bet. I’m going to keep stakes a little low because of that fear of the draw – but I would have Argentina as the favourites here. They have been the better side, only marginally, in the tournament to date and they have a wonderful XI at their peak. It’s easy to see that they are in a good place morale wise too, and it just feels like their time to break the 36 year wait. A World Cup win would put Messi up as an all-time-great too; he’s already there of course but it would just rubber stamp it. Whatever happens, we have a fascinating World Cup Final ahead!

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Argentina to beat France at 2.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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