WORLD CUP TUESDAY: The Ultra previews Tuesday’s knockout games in the World Cup between MOROCCO v SPAIN and PORTUGAL v SWITZERLAND both including a recommended BETDAQ bet.


3pm We have the final Last 16 games on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Tuesday, with two fascinating matches ahead. We kick off the day with Morocco meeting Spain, and not many football fans would have predicted this tie. Whatever about Morocco topping their Group, they wouldn’t have expected Spain to finish second either! I don’t think Spain will be too unhappy with the way things worked out; they ended up on the opposite side of the draw to Brazil and Argentina, and it would seem France will be their biggest challenge on their way to the Final – as knockouts draws go you’d have to be delighted with Morocco and then either Portugal or Switzerland. You have to give Morocco full credit for topping their Group, but you also have to admit results definitely went their way. They finished their three games with xG figures of 0.54, 1.14 and 0.47. They have been incredible in front of goal when they have got chances, because they haven’t got many of them. Spain shouldn’t really fear a side arriving into the Last 16 with a total xG of just 2.15. However, Spain have got plenty of criticism along the way to the Last 16 The 1-1 with Germany was a very boring game, and the other sides well fancied probably watched that game thinking they have nothing to fear. I wouldn’t read too much into the loss against Japan – they were certain of getting through going into that game, and you could even say they were happier to be in this side of the draw.

While all the pressure is on Spain coming into this game – they are trading 1.65 at the time of writing – but you have to say on paper they are levels above this Morocco side. You have to give Morocco massive credit to beating Belgium and getting a draw against Croatia, but Belgium just didn’t fire at this World Cup and Spain are a massive step up. It’s hard to know what way the game is going to go goals wise – I would expect Morocco to be quite negative in their approach and not create many chances. An early Spain goal would see them have to change those tactics, and we have had a lot of goals in the Last 16 so far. Under 2.5 goals looks fairly priced at 1.71, and in my opinion it’s just hard to get away from Spain at 1.66 as my best bet here. I’m not going to go mad on the stakes, because Spain still have questions to answer – they didn’t create much against Germany for example – but they should be too strong for Morocco here on their way into the Quarter-Finals.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win Spain to beat Morocco at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->

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7pm We finish the Last 16 with Portugal taking on Switzerland. Despite losing their final Group game, which a lot of top sides did after being sure of getting through, they still managed to top Group H with Uruguay not really firing at this World Cup. Portugal have become a lot of football fans “dark horses” but haven’t been faultless at the World Cup so far, they have been giving away too many chances and it will be interesting to see how they line up here. They probably have to be a little more defensive coming into the knockout stage. They have conceded xG figures of 1.33, 1.43 and 1.61. Compare that to Switzerland who had Brazil in their Group as well – they conceded xG figures of 0.91, 1.43 and 1.35. They impressed me against Serbia in a do-or-die match to get through the Group stages – they went 2-1 behind but bounced back incredibly well to win and finished that game with an xG of 3.61. They proved how solid they were at the back against Brazil, and I can see them doing very well here. It will be interesting to see how cagey Portugal are given they have conceded a lot of chances so far. Switzerland came into this World Cup in a very good spot, and I really wouldn’t be surprised to see them get through here.

Portugal come into the game trading as the odds on favourites, but only just. They are trading 1.97 at the time of writing, and I’m very happy to lay them at the odds. I fully expect a closer game than those odds reflect, and Switzerland have been pretty kind to us so far at the World Cup. There’s no doubt that Portugal have a lot of talented attacking players, but Switzerland have been rock solid at the back and when the pressure was on up front they created a lot. I feel they’ll get plenty of chances against this Portugal side, and while they are a tempting bet at around 4.7 I do like the Portugal lay option here at 1.97. It’s nice to have the draw on our side given how solid Switzerland have been, and Portugal have been known to go into their shell in big games too. This is really one of those games where we could easily get a 0-0 but just as easily see 3-2 either way! That all hangs on an early goal, but overall I just can’t get away from the Portugal lay here. It’s a confident bet.

The Ultra Says:
Four points lay (liability) Portugal to beat Switzerland at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->

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