McCOY ACES TRUMPED BUT THERE’S ‘MORE’ TODAY: Poor jumping cost Smoking Aces the Sussex National yesterday, despite a gallant effort by Tony McCoy to drive him yet keep him upright. McCoy has another chance with another hard to win with, Morestead, napped in a poor field at Southwell today.
19.0 BETDAQ OUTSIDER AFTER 20-1 WINNER: Still celebrating his 20-1 winner on Saturday, Daqman asks a 19.0 morning BETDAQ bet to beat two last-time-out winners.
Jumping is the name of the game. And, despite another fine ride from Tony McCoy, Smoking Aces lost far more ground than the champ could make up with mistakes at crucial stages of the Sussex National yesterday.
No prizes for second. Certainly not in the two chases at Southwell today, unless you can find a real outsider for second place in the small fields.
The likely favourites have McCoy and Tom Scudamore to help but let’s check each runner out for jumping ability on the ground and at the trip.
It’s important to evaluate their ability on the ground because some simply can’t jump well out of the mud. At the trip, because the further the race, the slower they will be asked to jump, which helps some of the dodgy ones.
12.25 Southwell Cooldine Run fell at Gowran Park and has reverted to hurdles, even falling at that discipline, despite first-time blinkers. This is his first chase since March, 2012.
Teenage Dream has had just one chase, 37 lengths last of five at 100-1. Visors replace cheekpieces today.
McCoy’s mount, Morestead, has run 59 chases, placed in 28 of them for six wins. On soft-heavy, he’s 434214P013P0222, reducing to 13002 over 16-17 furlongs.
Jumps well enough. Finds little in front and even McCoy has found it difficult to force him past when challenging at the business end of a race. Form under A P, including hurdles: 402.
Decent Lord: just three chases, all on soft-heavy (04U). Moved well over 2m at Hexham in December, but unseated, joint favourite, at Catterick.
The Informant: three chases PPP. Tried in visors then in a hood. Drop back in trip might help (won a 14f bumper) but puts his jumping under more pressure.
Strathaird: 23 chases, placed nine times (won two). Soft-heavy at 16-18f: 2133040. Form in December, January to mid-February: 212332.
VERDICT: Stratheard and Morestead have never fallen. With Strathaird out of form and 20lb out of the handicap, but usually able to hit a streak of form at this time of year.
Morestead should be odds on, with mudlover Decent Lord coming late to chasing and not having won under any discipline for three years.
Backers are concerned at Morestead’s reluctance (recent bridesmaid returns of 33222, still standing) but McCoy should lift him to win this one.
12.55 Southwell Off The Wall, a seven-race maiden, jumped well and cruised up to the leaders over 2m 5f at Ffos Las, then folded on his return after eight months off.
It was his first chase and he’s been seen on a racecourse only seven times, with form on soft-heavy 333, one of each over fences, hurdles and in a bumper.
Shouldhaveboughtgold has been second in both starts over fences. The horse he beat into third at Wetherby on December 7 has won three times either side of that.
On soft ground on Boxing Day, also at Wetherby, he and the winner came 28 lengths clear of the remainder. He jumped well and was caught, idling on the run-in.
High Ron, from a stable in form, has yet to encounter soft or heavy ground, and it may help him; we simply don’t know, but progeny of his sire have won only once under NH Rules on heavy.
What A Good Night: can put in a bad one, and fell at Ludlow when likely contender, a month after scoring very easily at Stratford. But his overall form on soft-heavy is P00U.
Old Way: Venetia Williams landed four in a row yesterday (Marcilhac was my only return on an afternoon of non-runners) and this one won a hurdle on heavy 11 months ago. Chasing debut today.
VERDICT: Shouldavboughtgold has cheekpieces for the first time today, after giving the money away by idling last time out. Off The Wall jumped well at Ffos Las but blew up after a long absence.
What A Good Night has poor form on deep ground, which is an unknown for High Ron. Old Way gets weight all round and all the Venetia Williams runners which stood up yesterday won their races.
1.25 Southwell Gulf Punch is up a stone overall for back-to-back wins last month. Hopatina has similar form but her success has been spaced out and she was scoring on soft and heavy. So far a class lower than Gulf Punch but receives 11lb, including the claimer’s 3lb.
The worry about Fountains Mary is that first-time blinkers did the trick at Taunton and the going was good that day. Blinkers are not always effective second time in low-class racing.
Fortuna Rose is hard to keep right, and progeny of Lady Fingers’ sire have won only twice under NH Rules on heavy ground.
1.55 and 2.30 Southwell Nicky Henderson had two chances here this morning but Accordingtojodie had not been seen on anything worse than good to soft.
As a Listed second on the Flat, and runner-up on very soft ground at Deauville, Earth Amber’s receipt of a stone from dual bumper winner Wadswick Court makes a mockery of the 2.30 race. She only has to jump adequately.
3.00 Southwell Good to see Bob Buckler back in the winners’ enclosure last week with The Happy Warrior. Bob just had to run the horse again, as he’s unpenalised for his win over Supercillary.
But horses at level 5 rarely put back-to-back wins together, never mind only a week apart, and he had a hard enough race from the front.
The same applies to Peqeno Diablo, whose form after his two past wins was 14th, then 7th. So I shall have my pound on Snowed In, the most experienced hurdler in the field, dropped in grade today and down 10lb on his mark in November.
BETTING ANALYSIS: I halved my wallet with some 2.78 Morestead (12.25) and took a chance with Old Wall (12.55) at 5.7.
Gulf Punch (1.25) was easy to back so i joined in support for Hopatina at 3.45.
Accordingtojodie had been pulled out and Earth Amber was very short, so I put her in my Daq Multiples for more of a fun bet.
BET Snowed In (3.00) was huge at 19.0 and was the outsider of the day.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 11.2pts win (nap) MORESTEAD (12.25 Southwell)
BET 4.25pts win OLD WALL (12.55 Southwell)
BET 8pts win HOPATINA (1.25 Southwell)
BET 1.1pts win and place SNOWED IN (3.00 Southwell)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pts win double and 1pt win treble Morestead (12.25), Hopatina (1.25 Southwell) and Earth Amber (2.30 Southwell)
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