New Orleans Saints (0-1, 0-1 ATS) @ Cleveland Browns (0-1, 1-0 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New Orleans -6 (48.5)
Significant Injuries
New Orleans: S Marcus Ball (out– hamstring), FB Erik Lorig (out– ankle)
Cleveland: TE Jordan Cameron (questionable– shoulder), LB Barkevious Mingo (questionable– shoulder), G Paul McQuistan (questionable– ankle), DE Desmond Bryant (questionable– wrist), RB Ben Tate (out– knee)
Recent Trends
New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss
The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 6-1 in New Orleans’ last 7 road games
The OVER is 5-1 in Cleveland’s last 6 home games
Three reasons to back New Orleans
1. The Saints are one of the NFL’s best teams, a high-scoring group that also played well defensively last season. The Browns, on the other hand, have lost 11 of their last 12 games. This is a clear mismatch.
2. The New Orleans offense was a top-5 unit last season and played very well last week, putting up 34 points and nearly 500 total yards. They’ll be facing a Cleveland defense that surrendered 30 points in a Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh, a performance that was made to look even worse when the Steelers were held to just 6 points by Baltimore four days later. The Saints should score enough this week to make the 6-point number inconsequential.
3. The Browns have an offense that is devoid of skill position talent and led by a journeyman quarterback who has been a backup throughout most of his career. Furthermore, starting tailback Ben Tate is nursing a knee injury and will miss Sunday’s game. The New Orleans defense ranked 4th in the NFL in both yards allowed and points allowed in 2013.
Three reasons to back Cleveland
1. The Browns are the type of team that gives New Orleans trouble: a physical, run-first offense and a defense that isn’t afraid to challenge opposing receivers. Their offensive line is one of the AFC’s best and will look to control the game.
2. The Saints surrendered more yards than any team in NFL history in 2012 and turned it around last season, but they were back to their old, familiar ways last week, surrendering 37 points and nearly 600 yards of offense to the Atlanta Falcons. This is a defense that can be had.
3. The Saints are a great home team but they’re downright mediocre on the road, especially when they play outdoors on grass. They haven’t been kind to bettors, either, covering only twice in their last 9 road games. The 6-point number in this game is a bit inflated, especially considering New Orleans’ road history.
Prediction
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