New England Patriots (2-1, 1-2 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New England -3 (47)
Significant Injuries
New England: None
Kansas City: RB De’Anthony Thomas (questionable– hamstring), S Eric Berry (out– ankle), RB Joe McKnight (out– Achilles)
Recent Trends
New England is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday night games
New England is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games
New England is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 September games
Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games
The OVER is 5-1 in New England’s last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 23-8 in Kansas City’s last 31 home games
The UNDER is 5-0 in Kansas City’s last 5 Monday night games
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back New England
1. The Patriots are going to one of the friendliest places to play in the NFL– Arrowhead Stadium, where the home team has failed to cover in 6 consecutive games. It has more to do with the team than the venue, though– the Chiefs have lost 5 of their last 6, two of their defensive captains are injured and will not be playing on Monday night, and their offense is worse than it was last season in every major statistical category.
2. The New England defense has been dominant this season, ranking in the top-5 in both yards allowed and points allowed. They should overwhelm a Kansas City offensive line that has really struggled after losing three key contributors from last year’s team.
3. Quarterback play is so critical to success in the NFL, and the Patriots are led by Tom Brady, one of the best to ever play the game. Brady has not been intercepted in 114 attempts this season, while his counterpart in Monday’s game, Kansas City’s Alex Smith, has turned the ball over four times despite attempting fewer passes. Brady is better than Smith by any conceivable measure.
Three reasons to back Kansas City
1. New England has been badly overvalued this season, with their only cover coming in a Week 2 game against Minnesota in which defensive touchdowns and the just-breaking Adrian Peterson controversy played a major role. They perfectly fit the profile of a team that should be overvalued: a traditional winner that has subtly regressed without the causal fan/bettor realizing it.
2. The vicious Kansas City pass rush, led by outside linebackers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, now gets the opportunity to face a New England offensive line that has allowed more pressures and quarterback hits than any team in the NFL this season, according to Pro Football Focus. It’s going to be a long, long night for Tom Brady.
3. The Patriots simply haven’t been very good on offense this season, averaging just 301 total yards per game. Brady seems to have gotten old overnight– this season he’s competed just one pass in three games that has traveled more than 20 yards in the air, ranking last in that statistical category. Even more troubling is the fact the Julian Edelman seem to be his only reliable target, as he’s completing 81.5% of his passes to Edelman and just 51.8% to everyone else.
Prediction
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