Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3, 1-3 ATS) @ New Orleans Saints (1-3, 1-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New Orleans -10 (48)
Significant Injuries
Tampa Bay: QB Josh McCown (questionable– thumb), S Mark Barron (questionable– abdomen), LB Mason Foster (questionable– shoulder), DE Michael Johnson (questionable– ankle), DT Gerald McCoy (questionable– hand), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (questionable– ankle), DE Larry English (out–hamstring), WR Mike Evans (out– groin), S Dashon Goldson (out– ankle)
New Orleans: S Jarius Byrd (out– knee), RB Mark Ingram (out– hand), FB Erik Lorig (out– ankle)
Recent Trends
Tampa Bay is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a win
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
Tampa Bay is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. NFC opponents
New Orleans is 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 5-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 7 games vs. NFC South opponents
The UNDER is 13-4 in New Orleans’ last 17 games vs. NFC opponents
The UNDER is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Tampa Bay
1. The Bucs are a whopping 10-point underdog against a New Orleans team that is bad and getting worse. In Week 4 the Saints put forth their worst performance of the season, losing by 21 points to Dallas in a prime-time, nationally televised game. The Bucs, meanwhile, picked up a road win in Pittsburgh.
2. Last week it became clear that Tampa is a different team with Mike Glennon under center, as he threw for over 300 yards and led the team to 27 points in a win over the Steelers. The Bucs had not scored more than 17 in any of their first three games, when they were quarterbacked by Josh McCown. Glennon will be making his second start of the season on Sunday.
3. The Saints have an abysmal defense that ranks 30th in yards allowed and is surrendering 27.5 points per game. This week we learned that they would be without Pro Bowl safety Jarius Byrd for the remainder of the season due to a knee injury, so the terrible New Orleans defense will now be without one of its best players. Tampa scored 27 points last week and they’ll likely top that on Sunday.
Three reasons to back New Orleans
1. The Saints are the safest bet in the NFL when they play at home, covering in 21 of their last 26 games in the Superdome despite being favored in 24 of those games. On Sunday they face a Tampa team that is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
2. The New Orleans offense has been humming right along this season, ranking 3rd in both total yards per game and passing offense. Drew Brees is one of the best 5 quarterbacks in the NFL, while his counterpart on Sunday, Tampa’s Mike Glennon, is a 2nd-year player who was very inconsistent as a rookie. It’s competence vs. incompetence at the quarterback position.
3. Make no mistake: the Bucs are a terrible team. They allow 29.8 points per game, score just 18 points per game, and their three losses have come by 50 combined points. They have very little chance of keeping it competitive with the Saints in the Superdome.
Prediction
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