Green Bay Packers (3-2, 2-2-1 ATS) @ Miami Dolphins (2-2, 2-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Green Bay -3 (49)
Significant Injuries
Green Bay: CB Demetri Goodson (questionable– concussion), WR Jarrett Boykin (questionable– knee), DE Datone Jones (questionable– ankle)
Miami: C Mike Pouncey (questionable– hip), LB Koa Misi (questionable– ankle), DT Randy Starks (questionable– back), OT Branden Albert (questionable– shoulder), DE Derrick Shelby (out– suspension), RB Knowshon Moreno (out– elbow), DE Dion Jordan (out– suspension)
Recent Trends
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 October games
Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Miami is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 5-0 in Green Bay’s last 5 games following a win of more than 14 points
The OVER is 5-1 in Green Bay’s last 6 road games
The UNDER is 12-3 in Miami’s last 15 games following a win of more than 14 points
The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Miami’s last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
Three reasons to back Green Bay
1. The Packers seem to be clicking on all cylinders after back-to-back impressive performances, beating division rivals Chicago and Minnesota by 53 combined points over the past two weeks. Miami just picked up a win over the lowly Raiders, but in their two previous games they were dominated by Buffalo and Kansas City, two flawed teams.
2. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is a cornerstone talent who is in the midst of his physical prime, and Rodgers has been red-hot over the last two weeks, throwing for nearly 460 yards, 7 touchdowns, and zero interceptions in wins over Chicago and Minnesota. Rodgers will unquestionably be the best quarterback on the field on Sunday and he’ll be facing a Miami defense that has surrendered 29 points or more in 3 of their 4 games this season
3. “Shaky” would be an appropriate description for Miami’s offense, and that goes for all involved– the quarterback, the offensive line, the receiving corps, and the running backs. It’s a unit lacking both consistency and explosiveness, which is why they’ve been held to 15 points or fewer in both of their losses. Ryan Tannehill has yet to live up to his status as a top-10 pick.
Three reasons to back Miami
1. This is a great “sell high” time for the Packers after their last two performances, big wins over teams with terrible defenses. The public consensus seems to be that the Packers are “back”, but this week they face a team coming off a bye that is coached by a man who knows the Packers implicitly– Joe Philbin, the former Green Bay offensive coordinator. Miami is a great bet in situations like this, covering in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with winning records.
2. The Miami offense under first-year coordinator Bill Lazor has been run-heavy, as the Dolphins currently rank 4th in the league with 142.2 rushing yards per game. That should serve them well this week against a Green Bay defense that is surrendering an NFL-worst 163 rushing yards per game.
3. The Green Bay offense struggled mightily over the first three weeks of the season before facing two bad defenses in Weeks 4 and 5. Now they have to travel across the country to play a Miami team that ranks 7th in total defense and 9th against the pass. Don’t be surprised if the Packers suddenly look like they did in Week 3, when they managed just 7 points in a loss to Detroit.
Prediction
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