Miami Dolphins (2-3, 2-3 ATS) @ Chicago Bears (3-3, 3-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Chicago -3 (48)
Significant Injuries
Miami: C Samson Satele (questionable– hamstring), S James Wilson (doubtful– hamstring)
Chicago: LB Jon Bostic (questionable– back), LB Lance Briggs (out– ribs), S Chris Conte (out– shoulder)
Recent Trends
Miami is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Week 7 games
Miami is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall
Chicago is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games
Chicago is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a win
Chicago is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 4-1 in Miami’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in Chicago’s last 5 home games
The OVER is 20-6 in Chicago’s last 26 games following a win
Three reasons to back Miami
1. The Dolphins have improved over the course of the season and seem ready for a breakthrough, as they pummeled Oakland two games ago and nearly beat Green Bay last week. The Bears, meanwhile, had lost back-to-back games before beating a terrible Atlanta team last week. These are two teams headed in opposite directions.
2. This is a great matchup for Miami: they rank 6th in the league in rush yards per game and the Bears have struggled with run-first teams this season, surrendering 434 combined rushing yards in games against Buffalo, San Francisco, and the New York Jets. Defensively, the Dolphins excel at defending the pass, ranking 8th in pass yards allowed, and the Chicago offense is reliant upon the passing of Jay Cutler. As I said, this is a great matchup for the visiting Dolphins.
3. The Bears are one of the worst home teams in the NFL; they’ve yet to win at home this season and have covered in just 5 of their last 21 opportunities. Of course, they’re chronically overvalued everywhere, not just at home, and have covered just 7 times in their last 22 games overall. Examine their schedule: who have they really beaten? Atlanta? The Jets? Their only quality win is against San Francisco in a game that was totally controlled by the Niners until some inexplicable 2nd-half turnovers from Colin Kaepernick. The Bears simply aren’t that good.
Three reasons to back Chicago
1. Chicago has just been better than Miami this season: they have a better record and superior personnel on both sides of the ball (just tally up the Pro Bowlers on both teams if you disagree…). The opportunity to back them as a home favorite of just 3 points is too good to pass up.
2. The Bears have an explosive offense that features the NFL’s best wide receiving corps in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, as well as Pro Bowl running back Matt Forte. On Sunday they’ll be going up against a leaky Miami defense that is surrendering nearly 25 points per game, a number that would be much worse if you threw out a Week 4 game against the incompetent Oakland offense.
3. Third-year Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been inconsistent this season and as a result the Dolphins rank 25th in passing offense. They’ve been able to move the ball on the ground, but Chicago’s 10th-ranked run defense may shut down the Miami running game and force Tannehill to beat them. Based on what we’ve seen out of him thus far, I wouldn’t want to trust Tannehill with my money.
Prediction
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