LOOKING FOR A MARKET MOVER: Daqman today selects early positions at 26.0, 15.5, 12.5 and 7.0 (twice) on BETDAQ, hoping to see support for them later on. So don’t miss Market Movers today to see if he’s found one.
EIGHT LAYS IN A ROW: Daqman is currently on eight lays in a row. He takes the unusual step of napping in an apprentice race at Kempton Park today, opposing the second favourite in a bid for number nine.
TIME FOR CHANGE FROM BHA.. AND FOR ME
The only thing that never changes is change. Just when you think you’ve got your betting sorted, they move the goalposts.
Eight years ago, when this column began, I set a record by scoring 100 winners in 16 days. Now there have been occasions when we can’t find 100 midweek runners.
The BHA are struggling to cope with the effects of the Recession and its aftermath, Austerity, which have given us very small fields. Their answer is late reopening of races. But a better distribution of meetings and prizemoney have been long overdue.
Meanwhile your betting – and mine – needs a new strategy. We must go for the big hits at the better venues and modify stakes during the week.
We always thought AW racing was just an alternative when bad weather stalled the jumps but there are so few jumpers now that a meeting like the BETDAQ-sponsored Kempton Park tomorrow night is a highlight of the week.
BULL’S-EYE BET: I shall continue to go for big-money returns at quality meetings, with selections staked to win 50 points at the BETDAQ offer listed in the orange at the time of writing.
It will always be 3-1 or better, and the stake may increase, with the intention of winning 100 points in major events, like the Grand National.
BANKER: A 20-point win bet, usually at 3-1 or shorter on BETDAQ at the time of writing, is a maximum-stakes nap at weekend and major meetings. But there will be bankers in midweek to 10-point stakes (see below); no fixed profit targets.
PRICEWISE CHALLENGE: That’s where I bet in the same races as the Racing Post value column. I’ll go for win usually, but win and place if the BETDAQ orange offer is bigger than 10.0, each bet – win and place – to count as a return. All profitable returns count as one point scored.
STAKES SAVERS: A bet intended as insurance, covering the stake on my main bet. It will often be a favourite I don’t like but one which still worries me. Or it might be a stable second-string. They win far too often to be overlooked.
MIDWEEK RACING: At the big meetings and at weekends, the lowest target will be 30 points (staked accordingly at early-mouse BETDAQ offers).
But midweek racing, isnow be rated by stake (not target return) according to the strength of selection, 1 to 9, with the banker 10 points win. See Daqman’s Bets at the foot of the column today.
LAY: I may declare a lay in the morning, but the lay is usually a tool for later stages of investing in a race. You see, most professional punters try to win a race, as opposed to trying to win money with one horse.
So it is that my bets are an early position on a race, according to my assessment of the value in the early-mouse orange. I may trade this one later.
I may back others; I may lay others. But, after publication, I can’t change my selection. So you’re on your own.
Except that BETDAQ is where you have the to and fro of competing with others in a punter-friendly low-percentage market. There’s always an exchange to tempt. Stay with it. Watch for tell-tale signs, whether positive or negative. Because on BETDAQ, you can bet either way.
BOURNE CAN BOUNCE BACK FOR JASON
CATTERICK Unexposed at the trip, showing promise over shorter, and from a stable in form. That’s Pegasus Walk (12.10), offered at 6.6 in the opener on BETDAQ this morning.
Donald McCain has won the novices’ hurdle (1.40) twice since 2008, including a debut win over timber for the grey Bourne, who would go on to win a big handicap at Ascot in February, 2012.
The trainer will be hoping to get a fairly sound surface for Argent Knight who ran well in big Flat handicaps in the autumn, though without troubling the judge.
This could be his game, and 15.5 on BETDAQ is available because Chieftain’s Choice is odds on, chased by Jacks Last Hope, creating huge offers in the rest of the field in a 107% orange.
Bourne, himself (2.10) may not be the horse he once was but has dropped 15lb this year, has blinkers reapplied, and has his winning jockey Jason Maguire aboard for the first time in nearly a year, with his course record 1-1. Come on Jason, Bourne!
Another grey, Palm Grey, has had two quick runs before this handicap debut, significantly upped more than a mile in trip. I took 6.6, in case he denies the Bourne supremacy.
KEMPTON When a stable is in peak form, you can expect its runners to be likewise, whether recent performers or reappearing after an absence (that absentee has more than likely worked with a recent winner).
This may apply to Jeremy Gask (currently 1144, the 11 with short prices; the 44 with outsiders) and his only starter today, Nelson Quay (2.20), whom we haven’t seen for almost five months.
Nelson Quay (12.5 on BETDAQ early mouse) won off a similar mark, also drawn wide, on this course in May. Dream Ruler must be considered but steps up in trip.
I’m laying Bosstime (5.20). He won here on the first of the month, blinkered first time, with senior jockey, Robert Havlin, suspended four days as he whipped him home.
Bosstime doesn’t strike me as a ride for a boy in a hands-and-heels-only apprentice race, up 4lb, giving weight to the field and with the worry that the ‘blinds’ won’t work second time around.
Habeshia deservedly heads the market, hampered on his hat-trick bid last time, then it’s 7.0 bar two, taking us to Litmus who is a real bridesmaid these days, runner-up in five of his last seven starts.
SOUTHWELL Sir Mark Prescott, who has withdrawn Wedlock at Kempton, now runs only 7.0 offer Vejovis (1.55), gelded and first time in a handicap with cheekpieces applied. Several ‘go’ signals here.
I shall also have a pound on another first-time handicapper, Kyllach Me. Trainer Bryan Smart won with a similar sort at the last meeting here: 26.0 on BETDAQ, as I write.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Strength 1 to 9; banker is 10).
BET 3pts win PEGASUS WALK (12.10 Catterick)
BET 1pt win and place ARGENT KNIGHT (1.40 Catterick)
BET 3pts win VEJOVIS, and 1pt win and place KYLLACH ME (1.55 Southwell)
BET 5pts win BOURNE and 3pts win PALM GREY (2.10 Catterick)
BET 2pts win and place NELSON QUAY (2.20 Kempton)
LAY 3pts BOSSTIME and 6pts win (nap) HABESHIA (5.20 Kempton)
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