Chicago Bears (5-10, 6-9 ATS) @ Minnesota Vikings (6-9, 10-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Minnesota -6.5 (44)
Significant Injuries
Chicago: DT Jay Ratliff (questionable– knee), DE Jared Allen (questionable– ribs), S Chris Conte (out– back), K Robbie Gould (out– quadricep), QB Jimmy Clausen (out– concussion)
Minnesota: LB Chad Greenway (questionable– knee), TE Kyle Rudolph (questionable– ankle), WR Jarius Wright (questionable– back), LB Anthony Barr (out– knee), LB Brandon Watts (out– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Chicago is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these 2 teams
Chicago is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. NFC North opponents
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
The UNDER is 5-0 in Chicago’s last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 21-7 in Chicago’s last 28 road games
The UNDER is 4-0 in Minnesota’s last 4 games vs. NFC North opponents
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Chicago
1. Are the Vikings really 6.5 points better than the Bears? It sure didn’t look that way when these teams met back in Week 11, as the Bears nearly doubled Minnesota’s total yardage output in a 21-13 win. Chicago is a veteran team with superior talent on both sides of the ball, and they’ll likely finish the season with yet another win over the Vikings. Remember– the Bears have won 8 of the past 10 meetings between these two teams.
2. The Bears have had some issues on defense this season, it’s true, but Minnesota is so bad offensively that it isn’t going to matter. The Vikings rank 26th in total offense, 27th in pass yards per game, and they’ve produced fewer than 20 points in 8 of their 15 games. When these teams met a few weeks ago the Chicago defense controlled the game, limiting Minnesota to just 243 total yards and 13 points.
3. The Minnesota defense was a sieve last week in Miami, surrendering 37 points to a Dolphins team that has been struggling lately. On Sunday they’ll be without explosive rookie linebacker Anthony Barr and possibly defensive captain Chad Greenway, so they don’t figure to get much better this week. They’ve been especially bad against the run, surrendering over 120 rush yards per game, and the Bears have a potent rushing attack featuring Pro Bowl running back Matt Forte. Back in Week 11 Forte gashed the Minnesota defense for 117 yards on 26 carries, and I’d imagine he’s in for a similar type of workload this week.
Three reasons to back Minnesota
1. These are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Bears have come totally unraveled, losing 4 straight games and 7 of their last 9. Their quarterback was benched before being forced back into the lineup due to injury, and their head coach may be unemployed in a few days. The Vikings, meanwhile, have played very well over the last several weeks, picking up a couple of wins and losing to Green Bay, Detroit, and Miami– three teams with a combined record of 30-15– by 6 combined points. Plus, Minnesota has been a great team to back this season, covering in 10 of their 15 games.
2. Chicago ranks 32nd– that’s right, dead last– in the NFL in points allowed, surrendering 28.6 per game. They should have a difficult time with a Minnesota offense that has found its stride in recent weeks, producing 30 points or more in 3 of the team’s past 4 games. Only one team leaguewide has allowed more passing yards than the Bears this year, so this is the ideal season-ending matchup for Vikings rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.
3. Minnesota ranks in the top-half of the league in total defense, passing defense, and points allowed, so they’re very capable on that side of the ball. That’s more than you can say for the Chicago offense, a unit that has collapsed after entering the season with high expectations. The Bears have now scored 21 points or fewer in 6 of their past 7 games and their quarterback, Jay Cutler, leads the league in turnovers.
Prediction
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