New Orleans Saints (6-9, 6-9 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-13, 6-9 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New Orleans -4 (46.5)
Significant Injuries
New Orleans: DT Jonathan Jenkins (questionable– abdomen), OT Terron Armstead (out– neck)
Tampa Bay: WR Solomon Patton (questionable– foot), RB Bobby Rainey (questionable– wrist), S Dashon Goldson (questionable– shoulder), LB Mason Foster (doubtful– Achilles)
Recent Trends
New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC South opponents
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall
Tampa Bay is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. NFC opponents
Tampa Bay is 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing record
The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 5-2 in New Orleans’ last 7 road games
The UNDER is 4-0 in Tampa Bay’s last 4 home games
The UNDER is 8-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 9 games overall
The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back New Orleans
1. Say what you want about the Saints– and they have had a disappointing year, there’s no question about that– but they’re a much, much better team than the Bucs. Tampa has won just twice in 15 games, they rank near the bottom of the league in every major statistical category on both sides of the ball, and they’ve only covered three times in their last 15 games against NFC opponents. They’re the type of team that bettors should avoid at all costs, and besides, the Saints have already beaten them once this season.
2. New Orleans ranks number 1 in the league in total offense and 3rd in pass yards per game, as Drew Brees is having another tremendous year. The Bucs, meanwhile, rank 26th in both yards allowed and points allowed. When these teams met back in Week 5 Brees passed for 371 yards and the Saints rolled up 37 points, so they certainly know how to attack this Tampa defense.
3. Tampa has an abysmal offense that averages just 17.1 points per game and has produced fewer yards this season than every team but Oakland. And they certainly aren’t improving, either, as they’ve scored 17 points or fewer in 9 of their past 10 games. They have little-to-no chance of keeping up with the high-flying Saints.
Three reasons to back Tampa Bay
1. In case you haven’t caught on yet, let me fill you in on a little something: the Saints are worse than the oddsmakers and the betting public think they are. Much worse, actually. To call them “underachievers” wouldn’t be quite accurate, because the truth is they were never that good to begin with. Back in Week 5 these teams met in New Orleans, and at that time the Saints were regarded as the far superior team– they were 11-point favorites, after all. However, Tampa controlled the action throughout and held an 11-point 4th-quarter lead before losing in overtime. This time around the Bucs will look to finish the deal, and considering the Saints’ recent form I don’t think a Tampa win should even be considered an upset.
2. The Tampa defense has improved tremendously over the second half of the season and they’re now playing like one of the NFC’s better units. They’ve held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 21 points or fewer and last week they smothered the high-powered Green Bay offense, limiting the Pack to their 3rd-lowest point total of the year. They’re on the rise, while the New Orleans offense, which has been held below 30 points in 6 of its past 8 games, is regressing.
3. The Saints have one of the NFL’s very worst defenses and they’ve been especially bad in recent weeks, surrendering 30 points or more in 4 of their past 5 games. They rank 31st in total defense and 29th or worse in every other major statistical category. They couldn’t handle the Tampa offense back in Week 5, as the Bucs went into the Superdome and rolled up 31 points despite the absence of starting quarterback Josh McCown, who was nursing a hand injury. The Bucs passing attack has improved since McCown returned to the lineup, and this week he’ll have an opportunity to torch this Saints defense, which is an opportunity that many others have taken full advantage of this season.
Prediction
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