Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12, 5-9-1 ATS) @ Houston Texans (8-7, 9-5-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Houston -10 (40.5)
Significant Injuries
Jacksonville: DT Roy Miller (doubtful– knee)
Houston: TE Garrett Graham (out– ankle), LB Mike Mohamed (out– concussion), WR DeVier Posey (out– calf), QB Tom Savage (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Jacksonville is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Houston
Jacksonville is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games
Jacksonville is 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a win
Houston is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record
Houston is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. AFC South opponents
Houston is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win
The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-1 in Jacksonville’s last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 5-1 in Houston’s last 6 games overall
The OVER is 5-1 in Houston’s last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Jacksonville
1. The Jags have steadily improved over the course of the season and they’re now playing their best football. They’ve won 2 of their past 4 games and they nearly beat Baltimore in Week 15, squandering a 2nd-half lead and losing by 8. They still qualify as a “buy low” opportunity, though, as evidenced by the inflated line in this game.
2. Jacksonville has played well defensively in recent weeks, surrendering 24 points or fewer in 4 of their past 5 games. They’ve done a nice job rushing the passer this season, as their 42 sacks are 3rd-most in the AFC, and this week they get to face a Houston offense that will be led by a quarterback who wasn’t even on the team two weeks ago. Case Keenum was cut prior to the season for performance reasons, but the Texans were forced to re-sign him last Monday after season-ending injuries to their top three quarterbacks. The Jags will be all over Keenum on Sunday, and it’s going to be tough for the Houston offense to produce enough points to cover the 10-point number.
3. The Houston defense is solid up front but terrible in the secondary, ranking 24th against the pass. That means there will be plenty of opportunities for Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles, who has bounced back nicely after hitting the “rookie wall” a couple of months ago. Bortles has cut down on his turnovers and has engineered comeback wins in 2 of the team’s past 4 games, and when these team met a few weeks ago he threw for 70 more yards than Houston quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’ll give the Jags a fighting chance on Sunday.
Three reasons to back Houston
1. The Texans are a quality team that still has a chance at the playoffs– they’re in if they win here and San Diego and Baltimore both lose. The Jags, on the other hand, are 3-12 and have covered just twice in their last 8 road games despite being underdogs all eight times. Plus, these teams met just three weeks ago and it wasn’t really competitive, as the Texans cruised to a 14-point win. This time around the game’s in Houston, so another double-digit win is expected from the home team.
2. Jacksonville ranks 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in points scored, averaging just 15.5 points per game. They fell short of that number the last time these teams met, as Houston’s superhuman defensive end J.J. Watt terrorized Blake Bortles, sacking him 3 times and clearly rattling the rookie. There’s no reason to expect anything different this time around, especially since the Texans have resembled an elite defense over the past few weeks, holding 6 consecutive opponents to 22 points or fewer.
3. Houston has a conservative, run-first offense that doesn’t beat itself and punishes defenses that can’t hold up in the trenches. Well, it just so happens that Jacksonville is one of those defenses, as the Jags rank 27th against the run. When these teams met three weeks ago Arian Foster ran all over the Jags, totaling 127 yards on 24 carries. What has changed in the last 21 days? Absolutely nothing. Expect Jacksonville to have tremendous difficulty with Foster once again.
Prediction
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