29.0 CHESTER CUP DARK HORSE: With a lead of 22-5 in the top betting races over his arch-rival Pricewise, going into the 2.40 and 3.10 Chester today, Daqman, who landed his nap yesterday with Chevalier (WON 10-11), finds a 29.0 dark horse in the Chester Cup.
38.0 CLASSIC ANTE-POST BET: Daqman also dabbles in the Epsom Oaks market at 38.0, hoping for a decent run from a dark filly, who has had just the one run, one maiden win, before lining up for today’s Cheshire Oaks.
QUICK! BACK JACK, THE ACE IN THE CHESTER CUP
3.10 Chester Cup Richard Fahey has won this twice in the last eight years with older horses, but not yet in the ownership of Dr Marwan Koukash, for whom he trains four today.
The owner also runs last year’s winner, Suegioo, to be saddled again by Marco Botti, this time 9lb higher and from stall 16, not the handy gate 4 he had last year.
Fahey’s Angel Gabrial, a close second despite being forced to the back of the field by stall 11 a year ago, is now favoured by 5 but is fully 15lb higher in the ratings.
Gabrial’s Star has never quite been able to bridge the gap between his class-4 wins and this class 2, and needs firmer ground, and Duke Of Clarence, racing off his highest ever mark, has to come from stall 19.
Mubaraz, fourth in this a year ago, is 18lb better with Angel Gabrial on their one-two at Ripon last Spring but, again, a high draw is a dampener.
The fourth Fahey runner, Gabrial’s King, is exposed and no better than his handicap position suggests, though stall 3 is hopeful.
You need to be in stalls 1 or 4, or come down the outside from a high draw, say the stats. The middle numbers are the sufferers in this fast gallop round tight corners, which favours older horses: only one four-year-old has scored in the decade.
In stall 1, Shu Lewis made a fine start to her Irish season, running up to the smart Windsor Park, and – in 4 – Buthelezi, a soft-ground horse, scored first run back, but neither is at an age when putting two good runs back to back comes easy.
Dermot Weld is in incredible form at home, with 19 Irish Turf winners already, but Zafayan needed first-time blinkers to help in a minor handicap on the last day (now switches to a visor). A maiden over hurdles, he is rated 24lb behind Windsor Park.
Quick Jack is the one. Third in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham, his first run since finishing third in the Newmarket Cesarewitch. He traveled well but his stamina just gave out in the wide open spaces of the heath.
Today’s tight turns look ideal for a horse who can lie handy, and has the Richard Hughes drive behind him for the finish. Shu Lewis is an excellent 21.0 for a trade, often a front-runner and sure to utilize gate 1.
The dark horse of the race is Ian Williams’ French import, Destruct, a winner in the Pattern at Deauville but not seen for 629 days. The trainer uses Kieren Fallon as a job jockey: 29.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
3.45 Chester This is the race to bet in, say the stats. ALL winners in the decade have been drawn 2 to 7.
That doesn’t give us the winner just like that but it does give us an underround, if we kick those high draws into touch. Deleting the quartet in 8, 9, 10 and 11, turns a 105% BETDAQ orange this morning into around 85%.
But they don’t pay me to back seven horses in a race. They want one. And that one will be B Fifty Two, easy CD winner in August on today’s kind of surface, and with Frankie Dettori currently showing his old magic touch.
VICTORIA A PLUM OAKS OUTSIDER AT BETDAQ 38.0
2.40 Chester (Cheshire Oaks) Derby and Oaks tests at Chester this week rarely point to one of the big winners at Epsom in June. And the two Classics we’ve already had didn’t tell us much.
When a champion two-year-old colt confirms his ability by winning the 2,000 Guineas, he’s usually a good horse but Gleneagles is doubtful for Epsom.
Ruler Of The World (2013), from the same stable, resurrected tomorrow’s Chester Vase, as its first English Derby winner since Shergar (1981).
But the one rule that holds good about the Blue Riband is to keep your money in your pocket while the trials are being run, and then pick from the first three in the Derby market on the day.
One of them wins almost every time. In fact, every time in the last decade. The BETDAQ market is a clockwork orange.
The Cheshire Oaks today has a similar record to the Vase: the odd winner. That most recent ‘odd’ winner was Light Shift (2007), a very good sort.
But all the signs from the first fillies’ Classic is that there’s nothing special this year. The 1,000 Guineas was a race of sprinters.
My ABC guide was criticised when my fan club met in the local phone box because the X-factor (for sire’s with a stamina index below 9.0) applied to eight of the fillies at or near the front of the market. There were Xs everywhere, so why put them in.
I did so to point up the lack of stamina in the field. I should have stressed it more clearly then, that this was a sprinters’ Guineas. My my sparring partner, Pricewise of the Racing Post, got it right.
The filly who had already proved she could get more than a mile, Legatissimo, won narrowly from Lucida, both decent sorts, with Legatissimo now Oaks favourite.
Tiggy Wiggy then led home the sprinters, four or five lengths adrift of the front two. The fourth home, Malabar, should get further but she promised that twice as a two-year-old, so is probably a flatterer.
The Oaks market on the day tells you only that the favourite rarely wins (just twice this century). We’ve had three 20-1 winners in the last four years.
Going for the hat-trick in the big ’un at Epsom in June is the Pretty Polly Stakes, which has provided the last two Oaks winners.
This year’s PP winner was Jazzi Top, trained John Gosden. Zamoura (a good draw in stall 3) and Entertainment in the Cheshire Oaks today confirms that this is the stable with the power fillies. Except for the Irish, who were one-two in the 1,000 Guineas.
Aidan O’Brien, who has a 50% strike-rate in the Cheshire Oaks in the last seven seasons – 110120 – has chosen to run Diamondsandrubies today, well drawn in stall 2.
Partly because of the ease in the ground, I shall take a chance on Victoria Pollard, a burgeoning daughter of soft-ground stallion, the Derby winner, Sir Percy.
Some fillies just suddenly take off as three-year-olds, and that’s what ‘Vicky’ has done at home (9.2 on BETDAQ early mouse), and she travelled beautifully to win on the debut at Newbury.
She’ll probably need this experience, so we’ll also have a pound on her, ante-post for the Oaks at 38.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 30 points)
BET 3.6pts win VICTORIA POLLARD and 1.8pts win (stakes saver) DIAMONDSANDRUBIES (2.40 Chester)
BET 6.5pts win (nap) QUICK JACK, and 1pt win and place DESTRUCT (3.10 Chester)
BET 6.5pts win B FIFTY TWO (3.45 Chester)
ANTE-POST (to win 100): 2.7pts win VICTORIA POLLARD at 38.0 (Epsom Oaks)
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