NOW 27 WINS OVER PRICEWISE: Daqman won yet another match with Pricewise yesterday, 1-0 up on Day One at York through Mahsoob (WON 11-4) which he described as a horse with ‘massive potential’, a possible ‘Group horse in a handicap.’ The score is now 27-5.
THE ‘STAR’ WINNING BANKER: Daqman v Pricewise is played out again today in the 2.10, 3.15 and 3.45 at York, which includes the big colts’ trial, the Dante Stakes. Yesterday’s winning banker, Star of Seville (WON 4-6), was in the top fillies’ test, the Musidora Stakes.
STEER YOUR MOUSE TO ELM IN DANTE ORANGE
3.15 York (Dante Stakes) It was a sweet Seville orange on BETDAQ in the fillies’ trial yesterday, though with that bitter edge of ‘where does that leave us for the Oaks?’
We are never satisfied with trial results unless something burns them up and wins a mile.
I discussed all the Derby trials, including today’s, in my column on Tuesday, suggesting that ‘Success in the Derby depends on the Dante.’ Three have done the Dante-Derby double since 2004.
But there was a double meaning to my headline: I am impressed by 10-lengths Derrinstown winner, Success Days, and two possible Dante results today would mean that he must be supplemented, although firm ground would probably swill the £75,000 fee down the drain.
First would be a bad Dante. But that’s unlikely, because eight runners of seeming quality should give us a decent race, and create enough pace to make it a worthwhile one. Second would be a good result for John F Kennedy.
JFK flopped in the Ballysax when Derby favourite, and the colt responsible for bursting his bubble was none other than Success Days.
Can the maestro of Ballydoyle resurrect John F Kennedy? Says Aidan O’Brien: ‘We hope the better ground will show his true ability.’ But a good run would also see Success Days’ kudos soar.
Ballydoyle have had trial winners since the Ballysax but suffered another disappointment when Ol’ Man River finished last in the Newmarkrt Guineas. Another redemption song?
Meanwhile, John Gosden’s Golden Horn was given a very high rating for a Listed winner when he shot up 21lb for scoring at Newmarket.
Frankie Dettori, who won on him that day, afterwards suggested the Dante, but W iliam Buick has the Golden Horn ride here, while Frankie switches to Jack Hobbs, the current Derby favourite.
He’s not even won a Listed, though he did coast 12 lengths clear in a Sandown handicap in April.
As ever, we won’t klnow until the race is run, but thus far – particularly in the 2,000 Guineas – last year’s form has proved best, and Elm Park brings a Racing Post Trophy to this table.
That two-year-old test produced High Chaparral, Authorized, Motivator and Camelot to win the Derby in the space of 10 years.
I’m wary because the second colt home that day was trained Aidan O’Brien. But you simply can’t back John F Kennedy or Ol’ Man River until you’ve seen them in action again.
And you can’t back Golden Horn because he’s already being diverted to the lesser Derby, the Chantilly version.
Jack Hobbs is clearly John Gosden’s number-one but he needs to make stones of improvement from a handicap. So it’s Elm Park today, despite lack of a run. But for the Derby? I’ll tell you more at 3.30.
YORK BRAGGING RIGHT ON SOUND SURFACE
2.10 York Winners of this have been 10-1 to 33-1, usually older horses but, though he was out of luck with his sprinters yesterday, Kevin Ryan is keen on Lexington Abbey, now that the four-year-old has a couple of runs under his belt this season.
Six of the last seven winners of this came from a low stall, but middle-to-high won the straight-course races on the opening day, and Lexington Abbey is in 14 of 17. His Doncaster conqueror, Out Do, now has to give him a stone. I took 11.0 in the BETDAQ orange as it rose above the horizon this morning.
Tim Easterby’s See The Sun, a CD winner here in June, and 7.8 on BETDAQ early mouse, had a nice run back at Ripon and looks set to shine again on this card or at that June meeting.
Though the Paul Midgley stable seems bullish, last year’s winner, Monsieur Joe, has had a long and fruitless season at Meydan, and horses don’t seem to be coming home with any relish for turf racing afterwards.
Stablemate Desert Law is down the ratings but hasn’t won since 2012, and Midgley is showing a poor 7% strike rate right now.
Though Pearl Acclaim is up 24lb on his last turf win, Dandy Nicholls thinks he’s well handicapped (well he would, wouldn’t he). A gelding op on him, and on sequence horse Red Baron, could well bring about improvement.
2.40 York (Middleton Stakes) While the Musidora Stakes may provide the Oaks winner, this race puts top fillies back on show the following year: Dalkala, Sariska and Midday have won it since 2010.
The secret of their success is that, since that year, the race has been raised to Group-2 status and tempted Group-1 scorers for prizemoney of more than £100,000 guaranteed. Good move.
Madame Chiang and Ribbons are the ones giving away that Group-1 penalty today, but have a hot Newmarket improver against them, Sir Michael Stoute’s Bragging.
Like Bragging, Madame Chiang’s target is the Pretty Polly at The Curragh, with fears that the Knavesmire turns won’t give the galloping filly room for acceleration, with the ground now likely to be good (it was excellent ‘no excuses’ turf yesterday with an edge towards ‘easy’).
Ribbons was winning a handicap at this time in 2014 and her official improvement of 19lb hinges on a Deauville Group 1 in which second and third won only one of 11 races last year.
That one win was by the third filly home at Deauville that day, Secret Gesture. It was a lowly Nottingham Listed, her only success in the last two years.
Secret Gesture and Belle d’Or are expected to need the race today, while Madame Chiang could have done with some rain. Bragging could therefore continue up the ladder by default, though Sir Michael thinks the track sharper than ideal.
Bragging must be backed but, with all the ‘ifs and buts,’ I’m also going win-and-place for a turn-up. This is the target for 16.5 offer Talmada, four lengths off the Ribblesdale winner last year, and said to have improved over the winter at Roger Varian’s, though – another ‘but’ – I just worry whether his string is forward enough.
3.45 York David O’Meara wants this – three runners of which the best is Hit The jackpot, well drawn, but needs a strong pace – and so does Richard Fahey, with two.
His Lincoln-winner, Gabrial, is high in the handicap now; Newbury Spring Cup fifth Loving Spirit needs a bit of cut.
Off Art is another well drawn but it’s always a worry that a lightly-raced glass horse won’t perform.
Jim Crowley judged the Duke Of York Stakes to perfection, just getting up on a 40-1 shot yesterday, and he is an interesting booking for a similar ride on Merry Me, who drops back a couple of furlongs from a Listed attempt in the autumn.
Abseil has burnt a hole in many a pocket. This is his first run gelded but stall 7 flings him out wide.
It’s 9.4 the field in the BETDAQ orange this morning. In a race that wide open, I shall tickle for a big-odds fish in Merry Me (22.0) but reckon that Homage, CD winner last backend who wins when fresh, has clearly been prepared at home for this: 10.5.
LUNACY NOT TO BACK CUMANI AT NEWMARKET
6.25 Newmarket The way Every Instinct has been working for the David Simcock yard, which had the big-odss winner yesterday, suggests that he shouldn’t be 16.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
I had a small-stakes win (to win 20) and a place bet to win 10 points, with three chances of collecting from eight runners.
6.55 Newmarket Today’s banker is Lunasea, highly regarded by Luca Cumani. Ran green first run back but expected to clean up this class-4 handicap on the way to much better things.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, unless stated, with banker charged to the account as maximum stakes at SP)
BET 3pts win SEE THE SUN and 2pts win LEXINGTON ABBEY (2.10 York)
BET 10pts win BRAGGING and 1.3pts win and place TALMADA (2.40 York)
BET 5pts win ELM PARK (3.15 York)
BET 2pts win HOMAGE, and 1pt win and place MERRY ME (3.45 York)
BET 1.2pts win and 4pts place EVERY INSTINCT (6.25 Newmarket)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) LUNASEA (6.55 Newmarket)
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