DAQMAN’S FIVE-STAR DERBY: It’s Derby Day! And Daqman’s big-race analysis starts with a word of warning after the 50-1 Oaks winner yesterday. Here’s his action-packed Epsom-preview package:
* Betdaq Derby value
* ABC Summary
* Banker Derby bet
* 17.5 shot in the Dash
* Daq Multiples trebles
HIS NECK’S ON THE LINE: It was a no-score draw between Daqman and Pricewise yesterday (leaving them on 36-9), as long-shots dominated the Epsom results. One of Daqman’s outsiders missed out by a neck: Merry Me (2nd 10-1 from 13.0 on BETDAQ). He has a 20.0 Derby bet and 17.5 shot in the Dash today.
YOU BET! BETDAQ IS BEST FOR A VALUE DERBY
Gamble of the race: Betting-wise, it’s GIOVANNI CANALETTO, the Epsom-gypsy’s choice.. and Ryan Moore’s! But the £75,000 late-entry fees for Golden Horn and Sudden Days are gambles, too.
Betdaq best overall: Last year’s Total SP on the Derby was 125%. This morning’s Betdaq offers add up to 102%. Value or what!
Value offers: EPICURIS, only 12-1 with Ladbrokes, was 17.5 in the orange this morning. KILIMANJARO, 14-1 in several books, was 20.0 on Betdaq. GIOVANNI CANALETTO, as low as 6-1 in a place, was 10.5.
Trade horse: HANS HOLBEIN made all to win the Chester Vase, and is so packed with stamina, though not with finishing speed, that a front run, or a charge from Tattenham Corner, might be the best option, but don’t forget to cash out or trade.
ABC SUMMARY: THE SWEET SPELL OF SUCCESS..
CARBON DATING Has finished 15 lengths behind Success Days and 12 off Gleneagles.
ELM PARK Four-time juvenile winner. First run back was third in the Dante, so should strip fitter. Yesterday’s rain welcomed.
EPICURIS Stamina packed. By an Arc winner, and scored over 1m 2f as a juvenile. Doesn’t like stalls, so hold your bets until they’re off!
GIOVANNI CANALETTO Dark horse, brother of Derby winner Ruler Of The World. Champion Ryan Moore’s choice.
GOLDEN HORN Same sire as Sea The Stars and Ouija Board. Well balanced. Won the significant Dante trial.
HANS HOLBEIN Handled the turns of Chester and possibly not given due credit for winning the Vase in soft ground.
JACK HOBBS Stepped up on handicap win and batted well in the Dante, without bowling them all over. Still learning
KILIMANJARO Mountain to climb, but related to Derby and King George winners. Won Lingfield trial
MOHEET By a Derby winner and no luck in running in the Guineas.
ROGUE RUNNER Another by a Derby winner. But Germany rarely has one strong enough for this world cup!
STORM THE STARS Son of famous Derby winner, but beaten by Golden Horn last season and Hans Holbein this.
SUCCESS DAYS Won his trials on heavy ground. Runner-up in one of them had beaten Hans Holbein six lengths.
HOBBS CHOICE BUT IT HAS TO BE A GOLDEN DAY
4.30 Epsom (The Derby) Don’t blame yourself for yesterday, and don’t expect the Oaks result to be repeated in the Derby. Fillies take much longer to come on in their Classic year, need the sun on their backs and can suddenly bloom.
The colts are already more mature and previous Oaks shockers between 2008 and 2013 (one at 33-1 and three at 20-1) were followed in the Derby by winners at 5-1, 4-1, 8-13 and 7-1. As ever, a bit of male sanity!
BETTING: In fact, that 7-1 win was the biggest price at SP in the decade, and I shall be surprised if the Dante doesn’t give us the winner, either Golden Horn or Jack Hobbs.
This column took 20.0 Success Days to win 50 points. He probably needed lightning to strike (as well as yesterday’s rain) if he was going to win, but he just might handle the better ground, and we can add a place bet on him this morning, though his coming out of the widest stall of all (12) is another negative.
DRAW: That ‘coffin-box’ one stall may have robbed Legatissimo of the Oaks yesterday, and horses coming out of that gate (like Epicuris today) have never done better than finish sixth in the Derby since 2004.
In six of the last seven years, stalls 10-12 have had one in the frame. Jack Hobbs is in 10, though it’s a smallish field and Golden Horn’s 8 slot looks perfect.
TRIALS: The Guineas and the Dante usually provide the winner. Moheet represents the Guineas this year. Though he was only eighth under Frankie Dettori, he became unbalanced and Frankie – now on Golden Horn – lost a stirrup at one stage.
If a colt is unbalanced in the Derby, it’s curtains. And another negative is the form of Team Hannon in the Derby and, overall, in races behind 1m 2f.
East Everleigh is a factory for two-year-olds and milers, the best in the land. Moheet is by a Derby winner but the dam’s side is weak.
The Dante produced the 1-2-3 at the front of this morning’s BETDAQ Derby market: Golden Horn, Jack Hobbs and Elm Park.
The first two had the advantage of a race over the Racing Post Trophy winner Elm Park that day. But on Derby day they have another huge advantage: the potential to have improved on their three runs each, while Elm Park is exposed by comparison after five starts, mainly in a lengthy juvenile campaign.
Mentally, Jack Hobbs was the one in the Dante who needed to grow up! That race will have done him the world of good and he’s likely to close down the near-three lengths of Golden Horn’s supremacy that day.
But can he also produce the Golden Horn surge up the final climb which won him the race at York and which is so common to the best Derby winners?
There is, however, a difference between them which could serve Jack well. He is bred with bags of stamina and, if Golden Horn can’t sustain his high note, well… That’s why this Derby is Hobbs’ choice.
ANALYSIS: I have been through the card, horse by horse, in my ABC Guide (Archive ,Thursday), and my conclusion has not changed.
The money horse is likely to be Giovanni Canaletto from the same stable as the 50-1 Oaks winner but the colts have usually been seen to better advantage on the track than he has.
The best outsiders have to be stamina-laden Hans Holbein, Moheet and Success Days and I will stand by Ken Condon’s runaway trials winner (Ballysax and Derrinstown) in the hope that he can handle the ground.
But this is a race for the Dante 1-2 (or the Dante 2-1), and I shall stick with Golden Horn for what we never expected to see eight years on: a flying Derby dismount from Frankie Dettori.
DAQMAN’S ORDER-IN: 1 Golden Horn, 2 Jack Hobbs, 3 Success Days
17.5 ABOUT NEW STAR CLAIMER IN THE DASH
2.00 Epsom Stravagante, the favourite but in a 105% BETDAQ orange, was third to Jack Hobbs at Sandown, and has followed the same path to this race as Sir Michael Stoute’s Conduit for the same stable. Dutch Uncle (offers of 9.2) and Cosmic Ray, hooded first time today, come from other key races.
Cymroi is heavily penalised for his Chester win and trainer Dascombe has been missing strike this week with three consecutive seconds.
Resonant has been hiked more than a stone this month already but his front-running style could see him finish in the frame again here.
I’m not sure Shaakis, a Dark Angel grey, will appreciate the extra two furlongs.
3.10 Epsom (Coronation Cup) Arc second (Flintshire) and fifth (Dolniya) seem to have this between them for France.
Dolniya is the improving four-year-old but that age group is only three from seven in this, and the weights favour Flinshire today as he bids to turn around two defeats by Dolniya at Chantilly and Meydan.
It seems so close that the offers about either one, albeit in a 101% BETDAQ orange, is picking between two picture cards that can’t make you an ace of a bet.
So I’m putting them in my Derby-day Daq Multiples and having a small win and larger place bet (at around 5-1) on Romsdal at 21.0. After all, this was the csene of his best race, third in last year’s Derby.
3.45 Epsom Dash A horse with course experience, aged no older than six, from a middle-to-high draw. That’s what the stats tell us.
With so many oldies in the race this year, that cuts the field to only seven, five of them with yards famous for handling sprinters: Robert Cowell (Duke Of Firenze, Normal Equilibrium and Free Zone), Clive Cox (Perfect Muse) and Dandy Nicholls (Pearl Acclaim).
Cowell and Nicholls are both doing well, while nine of Cox’s last 10 runners have finished in the first four.
Edward Greatrex was a boy on top of the world here yesterday, and the new star claimer on Normal Equlibirum and the old star Cam Hardie (Perfect Muse) – soon to lose his claim – take vital pounds (3lb = a length) off their backs.
Duke Of Firenze (19.0 on BETDAQ this morning), Caspian Prince (12.0), and Monumental Man (15.5) have all three won at Epsom. Perfect Muse was 9.8, Normal Equlibrium was 17.5, Pearl Acclaim 30.0 and Free Zone 46.0. Check the market again now!
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points, except banker and ante-post bet)
BET 10pts win STRAVAGANTE and 3.6pts win DUTCH UNCLE (2.00 Epsom)
BET 1.5pts win and 6pts place ROMSDAL (3.10 Epsom)
GOLDEN BANKER: BET 30pts win (nap) GOLDEN HORN, and (ante-post to win 50) 2.5pts win at 20.0 SUCCESS DAYS, plus 2.5pts place (4.30 Epsom)
BET 3.4pts win PERFECT MUSE, and 1.8pts win and place NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM (3.45 Epsom)
BET 5pts win MATERIALITY (11.50 Belmont Park)
DERBY DAY DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 3pts win trebles Stravagante (2.00 Epsom) with Golden Horn (4.30 Epsom) and both Dolniya and Flinsthire (3.10 Epsom)
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