NAP IN DAQMAN’S FOUR-TIMER: Daqman plundered both Salisbury and Leopardstown yesterday, with two winners apiece in the afternoon and the evening big races, including an eight-pointer on the nap, which won at evens. The four-timer in race order was:
WON 15-8 Bobby Wheeler
WON 11-4 Kodi Bear
WON 4-11 Unicorn
WON 1-1 Cougar Mountain (nap)
TAKE A PUNT IN THE RAIN: 16.0: Rain has put the damper on any ambitions of playing up the winnings, and Daqman reckons it’s a lays day, with backers relying on firm-ground form and guesswork. The nap is at Newbury and a there’s a punt on a 16.0 outsider in the big race at Nottingham.
HOPE OF THE LOW DRAW AT DEAUVILLE
2.55 Deauville (Prix de Pomone) Deuce Again (John Gosden) and Princess Loulou (Roger Varian) try to take this Group 2 for mares and fillies out of France for only the second time in the century.
Princess Loulou hasn’t raced this season but a year ago ran up to Ribbons on today’s course in a Group 1 two furlongs shorter, but there have been no problems other than the firm ground, according to trainer Roger Varian.
Deuce Again also loves soft ground and has also had a longish break, not seen since third in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in the Spring.
Baino Hope won back to back on this course a year or so ago; Cocktail Queen did the exact same (tautology is alive and well).
Frine, ridden by Gerald Mosse – in form at Salisbury yesterday – is back to the distance of her Prix de Royallieu success on Arc day (All At Sea beaten off).
Frine won from Mayhem, who had the Prix de Diane runner-up, Amour A Papa, behind at Chantilly in the Spring. Frine, a strong stayer, was having her first start for the Laffon-Parias stable in that Royallieu, and they expect further improvement this autumn.
The draw has a big shout at Deauville and winners of this in the last five years have come from stalls 4, 2, 2, 2 and 1. Frine (gate 2) and Baino Hope (in 3) seem to have it made!
CHANGE TO SOFT SO LAYS ARE BEST BETS
1.45 and 2.20 Newbury This was the first leg of a four-timer last season for Elm Park, Racing Post Trophy winner and the one-time Derby favourite.
In Division 1 (1.45), Derby entered is Executor, and Storm Rising has a date with the Racing Post Trophy.
Justice Law (Division 2) has top two-year-old dates and Nice Future has a Derby entry. Tashweeq has both!
2.50 Newbury The jury is still out on Ejbaar, though he won 10 lengths at Pontefract – beating nothing well – and War Strike is a similar beast, winner of a maiden, this one narrowly.
We don’t know how much they learned, or how much they have improved at home since, and whether they will like the change of going (to soft).
Big Whiskey (5.8 on BETDAQ, as I write) is running well without winning, and his sire has his best strike rate from horses running in mud.
Goring drops from class 2 and 3 racing for the first time since breaking his maiden in the Spring but his sire has zero winners from horses running on the soft. So, too, War Strike’s.
3.20 Newbury Cool Sky, Faithful Mount, Mister Fizz and Stock Hill Fair have all won on the soft, yet they are among 9.8 bar three this morning.
I can’t have the early favourite Satellte, as he’s won only his first-race maiden; always a bad sign, after 10 starts, albeit ‘he’ was gelded somewhere among his returns.
Sagaciously (5.6 offers this morning), whose daddy, Lawman, won the French Derby on an easy surface, was narrowly beaten on the soft at the Newmarket July course, and is a lightly-raced improver.
Master Of Speed is another unexposed three-year-old but, though some of his progeny go well on soft, his sire is a firm-ground stallion in the main.
3.55 Newbury Whatdoiwantthatfor was reportedly ‘not comfortable ‘on soft ground at Ascot last month, and sire Kodiac, doesn’t get mud-lovers, yet the Hannon filly is is favourite this morning.
Muhadathat should be ok with the ground; Shamardals (Shrill) do well enough on it; as a daughter of Zebedee, Madame Thunder should love it.
Madame Thunder is engaged in the Moyglare on her home track at The Curragh, and 13.0 on BETDAQ looks big. I shall lay the morning favourite; opposing market leaders should pay well on a day of massive ground changes.
RHOMBUS CAN SHOW HIS CLASS AT 16.0
4.20 Nottingham (Colwick Cup) A fascinating contest, partly ruined by the rain, but with still a good punt I think.
Though Rhombus has a big weight, he drops in grade for the first time since back-to-back wins last year at this time, and Tim Clark’s claim brings him down below the mark of his last success; 16.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
He loves it soft, and has won beyond this trip (at 2m), so the presence of at least a trio of pacesetters – Be Perfect, Cinnilla, Liberty Red – is a bonus.
5.00 Newbury The two Pivotals, Persian Breeze and Pivotique, should go well for a stallion who gets more than his fair share of soft-ground winners.
I’m surprised at Pivotique’s 10.5 this morning, since trainer Luca Cumani has won this race for the last two seasons.
YORK: WHICH WAY WILL DAQMAN GO?
Seeing is believing! My reader writes to complain that I have said nothing about the proposed Golden Horn v Gleneagles clash at York next week.
If it happens, it is a serious crowd-puller, which will be dubbed ‘the race of the century’ by at least one newspaper, albeit tucked away in the backwaters of the sports section, as happens today.
I shall do a Double Whammy.. I shall lay The One and back The Other. But which way round? The final decision about running them will be based on the ground. So will my bet.
YOU CAN BET ON THIS SOLUTION..
When is a runner not a runner? My reader acknowledges that I have already mentioned the Speculative Bid affair, with my verdict on all problems at the start.
If you don’t get a run for your money then, by definition, you haven’t had a bet, since a bet is based on having some sort of chance.
At Salisbury yesterday, the Stewards decided that Quite A Story was a runner, even though he unseated his rider as soon as he left the stalls. Where do you draw the line?
Easy! Every Steward automatically gets a bet from their expenses or stipends on every horse failing to actually take part in a race. Do you think we’d get a more punter-friendly approach? You bet we would.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 5pts win BIG WHISKEY (2.50 Newbury)
BET 4pts win on each BAINO HOPE and FRINE (2.55 Deauville)
LAY 5pts win SATELLITE and BET 5pts win (nap) SAGACIOUSLY (3.20 Newbury)
LAY 5pts WHATDOIWANTTHATFOR and BET 2pts win and place MADAME THUNDER (3.55 Newbury)
BET 1pt win and place RHOMBUS (4.20 Nottingham)
BET 2pts win and place PIVOTIQUE, and 2.6pts win (stakes saver) PERSIAN BREEZE (5.00 Newbury)
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