14-1 RHOMBUS BOOST FOR DAQMAN: It didn’t all go right for Daqman yesterday but when it did it was big time. He nominated first and third in the Group 2 at Deauville – Baino Hope (WON 31-10) and Frine – and gave a confident 16.0 shout on BETDAQ to the Colwick Cup winner at Nottingham, Rhombus (WON 14-1).
AND MORE BIG ODDS FROM BETDAQ: Today Daqman grabs offers in the BETDAQ orange of 45.0, 22.0, 16.0, and 13.5 as he goes after a new face in the Racing Post’s Pricewise column, which he currently leads 74-11 this season. They clash today in the 2.50 Newmarket, 3.0 and 3.30 Ripon, 3.10 and 3.45 Newbury.
DRAW! FAST SHOT IS BANG ON TARGET
3.00 Ripon (Great St Wilfrid Consolation) All you can hope for in these big-field sprints is to try to get an edge off the draw, the ground and the fitness of the stables, factors which the handicapper cannot allow for.
There isn’t much more you can do beyond this process of elimination, since these types of horses keep beating each other at this level.
The high third of the field don’t do well in either of these two heats; a low-to-middle stall seems essential.
Rain can cause changes and the Consolation will tell you more in time for the Great St Wilfrid proper.
Several stables in this Consolation are off the boil (down the card, Duffield, Crisford, Whitaker, Barron), while Ambitious Icarus and Searchlight prefer 5f and will find the extra trip hard to get on soft ground.
Nameitwhatyoulike, Right Touch and Showstoppa are all high in the weights now, which leaves me with 16.0 BETDAQ offer Fast Shot and 22.0 steal Mississippi, both Ripon CD winners on the soft, and both with low draws.
3.30 Ripon (Great St Wilfrid) David O’Meara (Eccleston) and Richard Fahey (Tatlisu, Lexi’s Hero and Don’t Touch) have scored two apiece in the last four seasons and the North is seven out of 10 over the southern invaders in the decade.
Al Khan, Another Wise Kid, Barnet Fair, Gran Canaria Queen, Kimberella, Poyle Vinnie and Tatlisu are all high in the weights, while Boomerang Bob has won only once in four years, and that on firm ground.
It leaves me with Don’t Touch and Eccleston, low drawn and from hot stables, though not the offers I like to take in big-field handicaps at 7.0 and 9.6, but he morning markets were vulnerable to a spate of withdrawals.
Three-year-olds have failed to score in the decade but used to have a good record, and Don’t Touch is a lightly-raced improver who has already won on the soft.
There’s a new face to Pricewise, who is currently insistent on one bet per race, which is his first mistake with these big-field sprints, where being checked in your stride for just a yard or two can mean the difference between success and defeat.
GROUND MAKES PALLASATOR THE PICK
2.00 Newbury (Washington Singer Stakes) Withdrawals bedevilled the betting at Newbury, too, though BETDAQ quickly re-established a 103% orange, despite only four to offer in this one.
Dewhurst winner Belardo bagged this en route last year, and the Rockfel and Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Just The Judge took it two years earlier. So it’s still worth watching, as Mark Johnston (Desertoflife) bids for his 60th juvenile winner of the season, and Twin Sails and Palawan, separated by a nose at Goodwood, renew rivalry. Pass.
2.35 Newbury (Geoffrey Freer Stakes) Old man Red Cadeaux, three-time Group winner, was fourth in this last year, second the year before, as he preps for the Melbourne Cup.
Apart from him, the runners suggest that this is a Listed race posing as a Group 3. Though most of the field has been placed at Group level, their wining form is Listed.
All suffer from lack of pace and, on this ground, it’s a question of who can grind it out, who can catch front-runner Romsdal in this battle of the nearly horses?
Pallasator and Windshear will like the ground but they couldn’t give Windshear away fast enough this morning, and I’ll nominate Pallisator as my Mr Gradgrind to teach them a lesson in the conditions.
3.10 Newbury The rain has cut a swathe through this, in which Mujassam tests his improvement since his wayward interests in other affairs were snipped off!
‘He’ has shot up the handicap and his short price makes the 7.0 Captain Bob look tempting. He is back to form in a hood, has done well on the soft and his stable is in form.
3.45 Newbury (Hungerford Stakes) Three-year-olds do well in this (four out of five 2008-12) but there are ground worries and harking back to the easier surface here for the Group-1 Lockinge in the Spring could give us a result.
Fifth, sixth and seventh, Cable Bay, Herecomeswhen and last year’s Hungerford winner Breton Rock drop a grade today and, when seen together on soft ground at this level last autumn, finished 1-2-3 at Newmarket.
Cable Bay has improved this term, so that there is now nothing to choose between them. I shall take Cable Bay, as Charles Hills has laid his stall out at Newbury today, and I’m betting he gets one home, Captain Bob or Cable Bay, with a small double on the two, just in case.
‘MUB’ TO GET THE RUB OF THE GREEN
2.50 Newmarket When I assessed this, Newmarket had escaped the worst of the storms and there were no non-runners.
Winners have come in the lower half of the handicap from horses battle-hardened after four or more runs in the season.
Mick Easterby has plenty on his plate at Doncaster, Thiursk, Pontefract and Ripon today and over the next few days, yet sends one – Among Angels – down to Newmarket, seemingly unfancied at 45.0.
From the low stalls and the higher end of the handicap, I noted Mubtaghaa (13.5 on BETDAQ) getting into one of those Goodwood pockets on the last day, when he stepped down from Group level. Good chance here.
Both of my selections for this would still have excellent chances if the rain came. The rain is a trump card all day, even if you have aces in your hand.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points unless stated)
BET 4.5pts win (nap) PALLASATOR (2.35 Newbury)
BULL’S-EYE (win 50) BETS: 4pts win MUBTAGHAA, and 1pt win and place AMONG ANGELS (2.50 Newmarket)
BULL’S-EYE (win 50) BETS: 3.3pts win FAST SHOT and 2.3pts win MISSISSIPPI (3.00 Ripon)
BET 3.3pts win CAPTAIN BOB (3.10 Newbury), if lose 4pts win CABLE BAY (3.45 Newbury), plus 1pt win double the two
BET 3.3pts win DON’T TOUCH and 2.3pts win ECCLESTON (3.30 Ripon)
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