TWO WINNERS OUT OF THREE: Daqman made it six wins in three days when, following three out of three on Monday, he had two from three yesterday, with Mootaharer (WON 4-7) and Elemraan (WON 11-2 from 8.0 on BETDAQ). Elemraan dead-heated, so a bitter-sweet success.
SATURDAY BIG RACE ABC: The final big test for two-year-olds of 2015, Saturday’s Racing Post Trophy, is analysed by Daqman today in his ABC Guide to the stats and facts.
FORM AND STATS FOUNDATION FOR A BET
3.45 Doncaster, Saturday (Racing Post Trophy) Authorized, Camelot, High Chaparral, Kingston Hill. All were winners this century of the Racing Post Trophy.
Here’s what the last 10 winners in renewals at Doncaster had in common that helps us pick this year’s winner. It suggests that at least three in the field are high class.
A Won over 1m already (9-10)
B Winner at Group or Listed level (6-10)
C 3-4 runs or unbeaten in one or two runs (10-10)
D Sire progeny average win distance 9.4+ (7-10)
E Raced in September or October (9-10)
ABCDE Foundation
Unbeaten in three races, all at a mile, including defeat of Deauville in the Royal Lodge Stakes. Stamina pedigree suggests he’s a Derby horse and from the same yard as Golden Horn.
ABCDE Johannes Vermeer
Won a Group 3 at Leopardstown but beaten favourite in the Lagardere (Grand Criterium) won by Ultra on Arc day. Fourth behind Foundation’s stablemate Cymric and Mengli Khan’s stable companion Galileo Gold.
ABCDE Port Douglas
Lazy colt, beaten three times in a row but won the Group-2 Beresford Stakes at a mile on fourth start, blinkered first time. Related to winners at up to 1m 6f.
ABC Tony Curtis
Taken off his feet on firm ground over a mile at Newmarket, narrowly beaten third in a Group 2, staying on (relatives got up to 2m). Thought of in the yard as another Toormore.
AE Mengli Khan
Related to Fillies Mile and Breeders Cup juvenile winners. Galloped to odds-on victory in big field at Nottingham, but tries a big step up here.
BCDE Deauville
A benchmark for this race is Sanus Per Aquam (Dewhurst third to Air Force Blue). He easily beat Port Douglas in July, but then was pipped half a length by Deauville before beating Johannes Vermeer two lengths.
Deauville stayed on but went under to Foundation on the last day in the Royal Lodge, all this suggesting an outcome on form of 1 Foundation, 2 Deauville, 3 Johannes Vermeer.
– Marcel
Lawman colt who was an easy winner at Newcastle; steps up markedly here, but stable knows its targets, even if rarely hitting them at the highest level these days.
LYRIC LIKELY TO GO A STREET IN FRONT
2.00 Southwell Today’s outsider is Golan Dancer, whose stable is on a hat-trick. Golan Dancer, ex-Irish and always going to be a chaser.
While top-of-the-ground racing lasts, I’m going for front-runners today and, assuming this one’s fit to do so because of the stable’s form, I shall punt Golan Dancer to swing round those Southwell turns and at least get a place at the morning 15.0 offers on BETDAQ.
2.15 Thurles Miss Dinamic for Gordon Elliott and Ruby Walsh looks the safest conveyance of the day as the hub for your Daq Multiples.
3.10 Ludlow Lyric Street was beaten six lengths on his chase bow at Worcester last month but that was no disgrace. The winner was rated 29lb better over hurdles.
Lyric Street, himself, won three hurdles out of four in 2014, and his Worcester race was his first for more than a year.
I can see Lyric Street (3.95 in my BETDAQ orange) playing catch-me here against the five-year-olds who have been off 166 and 203 days, respectively.
Arzal has to give 10lb and he doesn’t convince me. Murrayana is the one I shall expect to take out of the race but he needs further and his success has come on soft-heavy ground.
ROCK CAN RUN ‘EM RAGGED AT CARLISLE
3.25 Carlisle This makes for an intriguing clash of the age groups, with Shear Rock bidding for a four-timer, no doubt charging clear from the front, and Hadfield representing the three-year-olds, in receipt of 18lb with which to try to bridge the gap.
Both are sent up by southern stables, Shear Rock from Charlie Longsdon’s and Hadfield for John Ferguson (current form figures 111130131).
I took 3.75 Shear Rock on BETDAQ this morning, pretty confident that he’ll be clear, at least at one stage of the race, and allow me a trade.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 1pt win and place GOLAN DANCER (2.00 Southwell)
BET 5pts win LYRIC STREET (3.10 Ludlow)
BET 7pts win (nap) SHEAR ROCK (3.25 Carlisle)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble MISS DINAMIC (2.15 Thurles), LYRIC STREET (3.10 Ludlow) and SHEAR ROCK (3.25 Carlisle)
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