9-1 WINNER MAKES THE DAY: Daqman capped a day of days yesterday for new Irish Champion Hurdle sponsors, Betdaq, with four winners, including a big-priced bonus, Bowenscourt (WON 9-1), which paid for level-stakes betting on every one of nine sponsored Betdaq races.
BREEDERS’ CUP EURO HAUL: Today Daqman checks out stats and facts about the big three turf races on Saturday’s Keeneland card for the Breeders’ Cup. He thinks it’s a raiders day, the French having one in the bag and the English another.
RAIDERS CAN TAKE TWO OF THE TURF BIG THREE
4.45 Keeneland, Saturday (Breeders’ Cup Sprint, Turf) Chad Brown, with last year’s winner, Bobby’s Kitten, and Bret Calhoun (2010), who saddles Marchman, have scored in this before.
Bobby’s Kitten, also a winner over a mile in 2014, will find this a very different ball of string, with the trip dropped back from last year’s 6.5f to the 5.5f of Saturday’s renewal. He’s run twice at Keeneland, a long way back each time.
Undrafted, beaten only half a length and a neck by Bobby’s Kitten a year ago, started his season behind Something Extra over today’s CD but reached the Royal Ascot heights by traveling over to England to win the Diamond Jubilee under Frankie Dettori, who rides him again on Saturday.
The snag with this one is that all his success has come on fast, firm or good to firm. So the rain looks his biggest enemy.
7.30 Keeneland, Saturday (Breeders’ Cup Mile, Turf) Three-year-olds have won twice since 2008 – Goldikova and Karakontie – both trained in France.
Now here are Impassable and Make Believe, of the current French Classic generation, supported by their Sun Chariot winner, the ever-present Esoterique, out of the four only once in two seasons.
Make Believe, who won the French 2,000 Guineas, was back to form in the Prix de la Foret on the last day. His only bad run came on firm ground.
Impassable has a similar shape to her form. Dual winner in the Spring and back into the winner’s enclosure on Arc day at Longchamp.
8.50 Keeneland, Saturday (Breeders’ Cup, Turf) The big one. And it looks there for the taking by Golden Horn (Frankie Dettori) or Found (Ryan Moore), with nothing near them in the market and, in fact, six of the home defenders no-hope pensioners, according to the history of the race.
No horse has won this older than five since 1983, and European raiders have won 11 of the 15 Breeders Cups this century.
10.51AM: ALL CHANGE PLEASE, ALL CHANGE
One non runner can change the whole complexion of a race. Such is the case in the opener at Nottingham this afternoon when I was sweet on the chances of Daqeeq (no relation!) but Simon Crisford has pulled him out at 10.51am on the BETDAQ time stamp.
It’s immediately gone from looking a one-sided affair to an open race with the favourite now at 4.5 and a mix of debutants and experience to sort out. The non runner issue is a real blight on the sport and I wonder sometimes whether reverting back to 24 hour declarations combined with better ground forecasting and weather reporting could improve the situation. I dread the daily lottery of writing previews and then trembling as I check the non runners before pressing the send button on the DAQMAN copy.
In the case of the Nottingham opener there is now no bet in the race for me. There are 13 non runners on the Nottingham card so far.
LET’S CELEBRATE IN THE 1.20
The ground is soft at Nottingham and that will present a fairly tough stamina test for the two-year-olds in the 1m 75 maiden at 1.20. Even more so, you would expect, for the two interesting debutants Ice Galley (5, Kevin Ryan) and Rassmaal (6.4, Ed Dunlop). I’ve included the BETDAQ prices at the time of writing so you can check later on the late market moves but I am going to stick here with the proven form of So Celebre who we know a lot more about.
He improved on his Sandown debut to finish a close second to Little Avon at Leicester last time out. The form of that race has been given a little boost when Richard Hannon’s Loading (who finished third) ran another good race when second at Chelmsford next time out.
The key positives for So Celebre are that he has a solid tick in both the distance and going boxes – and that can’t be said for the majority of his rivals.
DIVA FEVER AT FAKENHAM
The Fakenham card has held up better than the flat cards today and in the handicap hurdle at 3.10pm it’s hard not to be drawn to Dainty Diva who escapes a penalty for a very easy win at Fontwell last week in a conditional jockeys event. She won by six lengths and 10 lengths and it’s no surprise to see her turned out again quickly by Jeremy Scott. Make the most of her racing off a mark of 98 – she’s been re-assessed to 110 so the case for her today is compelling.
FINAL LEG OF DAQ MULTIPLES TREBLE
Chelmsford race this afternoon and it looks tricky. My only thought on the card was that Velvet Revolution looked a little short in the opener. For my final bet of the day I’m sticking with the all-weather at Kempton tonight for the seven furlong maiden at 5.55. The William Haggas trained Karmadal should prove hard to beat here after an excellent debut effort at Leicester when third to Hold Tight. The opposition isn’t strong here and she could take a lot of beating on the Polytrack surface.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength of bet)
BET 8pts win (nap) SO CELEBRE (1.20 Nottingham)
BET 6pts win DAINTY DIVA (3.10 Fakenham)
BET 6pts win KARMADAL (5.55 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win treble above three
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