NFL WEEK 13: This is the best time of the year to be an NFL fan: bye weeks are now finished, meaning we’ll have a full slate of 16 games each week going forward, and only four or five teams have been eliminated from realistic playoff contention, so nearly every game is important. This will change, of course, as more teams are eliminated and others clinch, but for now– in Weeks 13 and 14– there are critical games everywhere you turn.
One such game takes place tonight in Detroit, where the suddenly surging Lions look to keep their Wild Card hopes alive when they host division rival Green Bay. The Packers have been installed as a 3-point favorite at BETDAQ, but they’ve won just once in their past five games and are 0-5 against the number the last five times they’ve been listed as a favorite. It’s difficult to nail down just what is wrong with the Packers at the moment, and watching them this year– from the 5-game winning streak to open the season to their subsequent struggles– you’re reminded of just how thin the line is between winning and losing in the NFL.
That’s true for sports bettors as well… at least that’s what we tell ourselves when things are going poorly. And brothers, let me tell you— it was a cold, cold November for yours truly. It was the worst month I’ve had in four years, as a matter of fact, and the YTD record has now sunk to a dreadful 22-26. More importantly, I’ve been forced to come up with Christmas excuses for the kids (“remember when you weren’t nice to you sister a few weeks ago? Well, Santa saw that, and you see what happens…”). Nobody likes a whiner, though, so there’s nothing to do but dust ourself off and hop right back on the horse. Here are this week’s selections:
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills (Buf -3, 41.5)
This is a critical game for both teams, as Houston is now tied with Indianapolis atop the AFC South while the Bills are just one game out of a Wild Card spot. The Texans have been playing better than the Bills recently, there’s no doubt about that, winning four straight games and five of six while Buffalo has lost four of six, but a closer examination of Houston’s recent winning streak has me a little skeptical. Look, there’s just not much offensive talent there– they average an NFL-worst 3.4 yards per rush, their passing game is entirely centered around DeAndre Hopkins, and their quarterback, Brian Hoyer, is a limited “game manager” type who has been a backup throughout most of his career. They’ve averaged just 19.5 points per game during the winning streak despite a +5 turnover margin that has given the offense every opportunity to succeed. The Bills are banged-up on defense but they should still be able to smother the pedestrian Houston attack, and the recent emergence of star wideout Sammy Watkins bodes well for the Buffalo offense, a unit that has been consistently productive this season when Tyrod Taylor has been under center. The Bills won’t find it easy against this Houston defense, but I think their playmakers– guys like Watkins, LeSean McCoy and Charles Clay– will do enough to grind out a crucial home win. Recommendation: Buffalo -3 at 1.89
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (Ten -2.5, 43)
There seems to be the perception around the league that the Jags are an ascending team with a bright future. This may be true to some extent– I do believe the Jags are better this season than they were last year, for instance, when they only won three games– but I think the rush to claim “improvement!” has led some to sugarcoat the reality of the current situation. Make no mistake– this Jacksonville team is not good. They have a turnover-prone quarterback whose recklessness is exacerbated by the fact that he can’t depend on his offensive line to protect him, and they’ve surrendered more points than all but three teams leaguewide this season thanks to a porous secondary that simply can’t slow down opposing passing attacks. They hosted these same Titans on a Thursday night two weeks ago and were fortunate to come away with a 19-13 win, as Tennessee held an edge in total yards, first downs, and time of possession but blew a 4th-quarter lead. This time the game is in Nashville, where the Titans have endured several heartbreaking losses this year– four by 3 points or fewer, to be exact. I have a feeling they finish the job this week and give Mike Mularkey a victory over the team he once coached. Recommendation: Tennessee -2.5 at 1.86
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (KC -3, 44)
Oakland snapped a 3-game losing streak with a gutsy comeback win in Tennessee last week, setting the stage for a tremendously important game this Sunday as division rival Kansas City comes to town. The Chiefs were left for dead after losing five of their first six games and watching star tailback Jamaal Charles go down with a season-ending injury, but they’ve rallied to five straight wins and are as hot as any team in the league outside of Carolina. They’re a road favorite here and a popular public bet at sportsbooks around the world, but I think this game may shake out a little differently than most expect. Specifically, I expect the Kansas City defense, a unit that has has allowed just 12.2 points per game during the team’s recent winning streak, to really struggle against the balanced yet explosive Oakland offense. And it shouldn’t be all that surprising if you remember what the Chiefs looked like against the only two objectively “good” offenses they’ve faced this year, those in Green Bay and Cincinnati. The Packers and the Bengals rolled up a combined 74 points and 993 total yards on the overmatched Chiefs, and taking that into account I urge you to reexamine Kansas City’s recent success on a game-by-game basis– they faced a Pittsburgh team that was without Ben Roethlisberger; a Detroit team that was playing for the first time since offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s firing; a hobbled Peyton Manning on what may turn out to be his last game, when he was benched after going 5/20 with 4 interceptions; a San Diego team that was missing five offensive starters, including its best receiver; and then they faced Buffalo last week and surrendered 22 points and 415 total yards. The Raiders are better on offense than any of those teams– they have a great young quarterback in Derek Carr (63.5% comp., 263 ypg, 24/6 TD/INT), a difference-maker on the outside in rookie receiver Amari Cooper, and a tailback in Latavius Marray who ranks 7th in the NFL in rushing and has only fumbled once all year despite 206 touches. I fully expect Carr and Co. to go up and down the field in this game and put up at least 24 points, which they have done six times this season. Kansas City’s best defensive player, pass-rushing terror Justin Houston, is questionable with a knee injury, and the Chiefs are banged-up on the O-line and at running back, where 3rd-stringer Spencer Ware may have to start for the second consecutive week. I think the streak stops here. Recommendation: Oakland +3 at 1.81
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (Den -4, 43)
The Broncos have a 3-game lead in the AFC West and they’re riding high after upsetting New England last Sunday night, but I still think they’re a team that’s trending downward and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they weren’t able to escape San Diego with a win this week. The Chargers, at just 3-8, are firmly in “house money” mode at this point, but they’re a dangerous team in that role with a guy like Philip Rivers at quarterback, as they proved last week in going on the road and defeating the favored Jaguars. Rivers leads the NFL in completion percentage (68.5%) and ranks second in passing yards (319 ypg), and injuries to his receiving corps haven’t slowed him a bit, as he’s topped 300 yards passing in six of his past 8 games. This is more about Denver, though– the defense has been the unquestioned strength of the team all season, but cracks are beginning to show, as the Broncos have surrendered 23.7 points per game over their last four contests after allowing more than 23 points just once in their first seven games. Starting safety T.J. Ward is out this week and the team was already thin in the secondary, so journeyman Josh Bush was signed a couple of days ago and may see action on Sunday. I’m sure Philip Rivers won’t lose too much sleep over that news. And despite all the positive things that coaches and teammates have said about young Brock Osweiler, the fact remains that he’s started a grand total of two games in his NFL career and he didn’t exactly look like a Hall of Famer last week in completing just 23 of his 42 pass attempts. The Broncos have had trouble getting the running game going this year, ranking 17th in the league at just over 100 yards per game on the ground, so at some level this is going to have to be “Brock Osweiler beats Philip Rivers” if Denver is going to win. I don’t like the sound of that. As a matter of fact, if you’re giving me Rivers, home-field advantage, and 4 points, I think I’ll take my chances. Recommendation: San Diego +4 at 1.89
2015 Record– 22-26
