6-1 HIT FOR HEADLINE HORSE: ‘Let’s follow the galloping Majeur’ boomed Daqman’s headline yesterday: and, sure enough, Ut Majeur Aulmes (WON 6-1) galloped him into profit for the day, hanging on grimly by a neck.
TIPPING RECORD BY NUMBERS: Daqman resumes his challenge to Pricewise today in the 2.15, 2.50 and 3.25 Newbury. Current scores of the main Daqman features:
Daqman 25, Pricewise 10
Lays: 10 out of 12
Bankers: 8 out of 12
THE NAP IS AT LINGFIELD: Daqman’s bets today include BETDAQ offers of 13.5, 10.5, 9.0, 8.0 and 6.2 over the jumps, but he goes hunting for the nap on the Flat in the Lingfield Spring Cup.
NATIONAL TRIALS: VODKA A TONIC AT 9.0
2.15 Newbury Six out of seven winners of this have been 10-year-olds, by no means veterans for a stayers’ chase these days. The grand old-timer here is Pineau De Re, now 13, the only National winner reappearing today after Many Clouds’ Kelso meeting was abandoned.
Pineau is an in-and-out performer these days and Alvarado – twice fourth at Aintree – may have missed his National chance.
Aachen was still sparkling at the turn of the year but a 17lb rise has probably flattened him. Pete The Feat ran well on the last day, back from injury but is without success since December, 2013. Restless Harry has won only once in two years; so, too, Relax. For Same Difference, it’s three years.
First-time tongue-tie on Masters Hill could make a difference to the outcome for the Cue Card stable which is flying this season. The top handicap yard is that of Philip Hobbs, but he worries about So Fine’s jumping. He hasn’t been chasing for three years.
Shotovodka is thrown in, a stone below his last winning mark, but will he stay the trip? I’ll take a chance because of the very light weight. His price was about right at 9.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
The ‘hidden horse’ is Relax, 10.5 this morning. He was runner-up in the race last season, will love any rain, and has been aimed at this all year.
VERDICT: My order-in is 1 Shotovodka, 2 Relax, 3 Masters Hill
NATIONAL TRIALS: SEGO SET FOR SUCCESS
3.45 Doncaster (Grimthorpe Chase) This has three Grand National trialists. Pricewise leapt on The Last Samuri for Aintree on Kim Bailey’s assertion that ‘this looks a Grand National horse in the making.’
But that’s in the future: to win it in April he’d have to be as good as last year’s Aintree hero, Many Clouds, only the second National hero aged eight in a quarter of a century.
And the form of his Kempton win in December is nothing like. Those behind him who have run since show these returns: 000UP2U2P3.
Samuri was 26.0 for Aintree when I checked out the BETDAQ orange, with The Druids Nephew 20.0 and Just A Par 40.0. If you fancy one of them now, and he’s a good winner today, expect those offers to go.
The Druids Nephew needs better ground: has yet to place since incurring a 9lb rise for winning a handicap at the Cheltenham Festival last March.
Samuri is on the upgrade and, if he does win today, and you are on the 26.0 today, or were on for the National with Pricewise, do something he can’t – or won’t – do, and which you can’t do with the bookies, and that is do a trade with your ‘overs.’
The easiest option, if you are not already with us, is to join BETDAQ and use the facilities now and in the future.
Sego Success has been trained for stamina contests but fell at the second when favourite for one, the Warwick Classic.
But it’s a good move to bring Sego Success back to the scene of his December triumph from the front, though that was over 3m and there’s another quarter-mile today. This is his stamina test for the Midlands Grand National.
Rain today would affect the chances of The Last Samuri as well as The Druids Nephew. But the weather-warning flag is also hoisted for Sego Success and last year’s runner-up, Drop Out Joe, so it’s the same for everyone.
VERDICT: The BETDAQ orange was a wonder 101% this morning, virtually a level playing-field for punting. I took 4.7 Sego Success, regarding him as a 3-1 chance with field down to six against The Druids Nephew absence for three months, and The Last Samuri’s form badly needing a boost.
GREATWOOD: 13.5 BIHAN THE HIDDEN HORSE
2.50 Newbury (Ladbrokes’ Greatwood Hurdle) After Hours, Boite, Gabrial The Great, Gala Ball, Rathealy and Wells De Lune have all front run.
That’s half the field, and they could pull themselves clear of the other half, not for catching. But ‘hidden horses’ lurk.
The morning favourite Saint Charles hasn’t been seen for more than a year and is a typical Nicky Henderson, though the trainer solves some of the puzzle for us by fitting a hood on a horse which has often pulled too hard.
The other that’s hidden is Forest Bihan, better than the bare form – drops from Graded company – and with trainer Brian Ellison having 11 consecutive runners (five of them winners) in the first five.
I shall have a bit of win and place Forest Bihan at 13.5 on BETDAQ this morning and also on Ellison’s well-placed Sikandar (4.00 at 7.4 offers, as I write) in the novices’ handicap later on the card.
Wells De Lune ran away from an 11-year-old class-5 winner on the last day; needs better ground and could do without the 7lb penalty. Gala Ball twice beat losers at Wincant on.
These are no world-beaters, then, and so Saint Charles is not badly priced at offers of 3.1. Henderson would win a race like this 50% of the time.
GREATWOOD: NICHOLLS WINS THE GOLD
3.25 Newbury (Greatwood Gold Cup) Paul Nicholls’ record in this in the decade is 1211101121. A total of 57 runners over the age of eight have all failed to score.
Thanks to a BETDAQ-orange overround of only 106% as I write (last year the bookies charged you 122% at SP), I can back both Nicholls’ runners, Art Mauresque (6.2) and Sametegal (8.0).
4.15 Lingfield (Spring Cup) After a good run over CD in November, Abe Lincoln was immediately nominated for this race, for which he was 4.1 on BETDAQ early doors.
And it couldn’t have come at a better time, with Jeremy Noseda’s string having just hit form. Abe Lincoln would give him a hat-trick in the last few days. Said to have Pattern-race possibilities.
SPURRED ON FOR A PREMIER LEAGUE PUNT
I don’t get the same kick out of football. I rarely bet on the game and don’t have the stats for it. But I know a man who does.
He tells me facts which sound ideal for in-play betting and which he says invariably give you the Premier League champions at this time of year.
He keeps a check on which team earns most points – win and draw – when having to come from behind. This, he says, was the reason for the long-time domination of Manchester United, who had a great tradition of winning when they seemed down and out, or when a game was evenly poised.
This year, Spurs have earned 17 points when coming from behind, between twice and four times as many as most Premier League sides. Only Leicester of the others have been able to score double-figure turn-around points. West Ham are best of the rest. Come on, Citizen Kane!
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points)
BET 4.2pts win SHOTAVODKA and 3pts win RELAX (2.15 Newbury)
BET 2.4pts win and place FOREST BIHAN, and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) SAINT CHARLES (2.50 Newbury)
BET 5.5pts win ART MAURESQUE and 4pts win SAMETEGAL (3.25 Newbury)
BET 8pts win SEGO SUCCESS (3.45 Doncaster)
BET 4.6pts win SIKANDAR (4.00 Newbury)
BET 10pts win (nap) ABE LINCOLN (4.15 Lingfield)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5pts win double SAINT CHARLES (2.50 Newbury) and ABE LINCOLN (4.15 Lingfield)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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