THURSDAY 3rd TEST: The Edge previews England v New Zealand with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
England v New Zealand 3rd Test
MATCH OVERVIEW:
We’re into the series decider between England and New Zealand on Betdaq Betting Exchange! This series has basically had it all – drama with the Lord’s wicket, drama off the field, and of course bags of drama between too evenly matched sides. The first Test at Lord’s was probably shadowed by how poor the wicket was but England got the job done even with a first innings collapse and New Zealand trading short. Then the wheels came off spectacularly off the field. Ben Stokes and Gus Atkinson breached the team’s midnight curfew in the early hours of June 8, reportedly present during a violent altercation at a Chelsea nightclub involving a group of Saracens rugby players. The ECB dropped both men for the Oval Test, launched an investigation, and the whole saga dominated every back page for a fortnight. England, three debutants thrust into the side and missing their captain and their best seamer, were hammered by 253 runs at the Oval.
So, here we are then – a series decider with all the baggage. At least it hasn’t been dull! Now, after the ECB and Cricket Regulator both concluded that neither player was responsible for any violence – Atkinson was, in fact, the victim of unprovoked attacks – Stokes returns as captain, Atkinson is back in the attack which at times looked toothless in the 2nd Test. The press conference on the eve of this Test will be one to watch. Stokes knows he made a mistake breaking curfew, and he’ll hold his hands up. Durham coach Ryan Campbell offered some perspective last week, saying the reaction had been a little over the top and that Stokes was in good spirits and working hard in the nets, but the questions will still come.
England desperately need Stokes though. As good as Joe Root is with the bat, I don’t think being captain suits him. New Zealand, meanwhile, arrive with serious momentum. Tom Latham’s side handled the Williamson retirement news between Tests with remarkable composure. They’ve actually played fantastic cricket all series; as I said above traded odds on to win the 1st Test too. Their bowling has been marginally better and we should have another cracker here to finish a drama filled series. Hopefully this time all the drama is on the pitch!
WEATHER AND PITCH WATCH:
We’re at Trent Bridge for the series decider, and many cricket fans believe that Trent Bridge has been the spiritual home of the Bazball era – it was here in June 2022 that Jonny Bairstow blasted England to a famous run-chase against these same New Zealand opponents and kickstarted the whole revolution if you like. England have been unbeaten here since 2018. It’s mainly been a result venue – only two draws from the last 18 Tests going back to 2003. The two draws came against India too. England is going through a heatwave at the moment, so that could easily bring in spin late on in the Test. In overcast conditions, the ball tends to move around a lot here; it’s hard to see a draw here!
RECOMMENDED BET:
As I said above, it’s hard to see a draw here and that’s reflected in the market. The draw is trading 7.6 but I’d even have it bigger – I just don’t see a draw given the way these two play. It’s a straight shootout then between England at 2.04 and New Zealand at 2.52. We’ve been on New Zealand twice from a value point of view already this series so we are well ahead, and although they have been getting shorter, I still feel that they offer value at 2.52. Their batting is in a very good place on this tour, and they basically have the perfect attack for English conditions too. England, on the other hand, get Stokes, Atkinson and Robinson back, which is a significant upgrade, so I’m going to keep stakes small but I’m happy with the 2.52 on New Zealand from a value point of view.
The Edge Says:
One point win New Zealand to beat England at 2.52 with Betdaq Betting Exchange
View the market here -> https://betdaq.biz/3EngNz
IN-RUNNING STRATEGY:
This is a fascinating match to trade, and once again it would be no surprise to see the market bounce around. Both sides have been odds on to win both Tests at some point, and to be honest it would be a surprise if the same didn’t happen here. The best advice is to not get married to a position early; this market is going to move around. Stokes and Atkinson coming back into the attack transforms England’s bowling, but we should have blue sky’s so perhaps we’ll see the batters on top from both sides. The New Zealand batting was superb in the 2nd Test, so they are in a very good place here. If we do get a bit of cloud cover at any stage though, I’d be very keen to get against the England batting – especially once Joe Root is out!
